How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Oilers 3 Flames 5 -6.0
-0.6
Oilers 2 Coyotes 4 -6.0
-0.6
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 -6.0
-0.6
Oilers 2 Kings 3 -5.9
-0.6
Oilers 3 Stars 4 -5.9
-0.6
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 -5.8
-0.6
Oilers 2 Capitals 3 -5.7
-0.6
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 4 -5.6
-0.6
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 -5.6
-0.6
Oilers 2 Wild 3 -5.5
-0.6
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 +5.5
+0.5
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 -5.5
-0.6
Oilers 2 Senators 3 -5.4
-0.5
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)+5.4
+0.5
Kings 7 Oilers 3 -5.3
-0.5
Canucks 2 Oilers 1 -5.3
-0.5
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 -5.2
-0.5
Wild 2 Oilers 1 -5.2
-0.5
Predators 5 Oilers 2 -5.0
-0.5
Kings 3 Oilers 1 -5.0
-0.5
Ducks 3 Oilers 2 -5.0
-0.5
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 -4.9
-0.5
Wild 5 Oilers 1 -4.9
-0.5
Flames 4 Oilers 3 -4.9
-0.5
Canucks 3 Oilers 4 +4.9
+0.5
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 -4.8
-0.5
Flames 2 Oilers 4 +4.7
+0.5
Stars 3 Oilers 4 +4.7
+0.5
Canadiens 2 Oilers 1 -4.7
-0.5
Capitals 10 Oilers 3 -4.7
-0.5
Predators 3 Oilers 5 +4.7
+0.5
Coyotes 1 Oilers 7 +4.7
+0.5
Blue Jackets 1 Oilers 8 +4.6
+0.5
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 -4.6
-0.5
Blackhawks 3 Oilers 4 +4.5
+0.4
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)+4.5
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)+4.5
*+0.4
Blues 1 Oilers 2 +4.4
+0.4
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 +4.3
+0.4
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 +4.2
+0.4
Oilers 5 Wild 2 +4.1
+0.4
Devils 1 Oilers 3 +4.1
+0.4
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 +4.1
+0.4
Oilers 4 Avalanche 3 (so)+4.1
+0.4
Oilers 3 Avalanche 2 +4.0
+0.4
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 +4.0
+0.4
Penguins 3 Oilers 5 +4.0
+0.4
Oilers 4 Coyotes 2 +4.0
+0.4
Lightning 0 Oilers 4 +4.0
+0.4
Avalanche 5 Oilers 6 (so)+3.9
+0.5
Oilers 5 Blues 1 +3.9
+0.4
Oilers 4 Bruins 3 (so)+3.9
+0.3
Oilers 3 Canucks 2 +3.9
+0.4
Oilers 3 Canucks 0 +3.8
+0.4
Oilers 5 Kings 4 +3.8
+0.4
Oilers 6 Predators 2 +3.8
+0.4
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 +3.7
+0.4
Oilers 4 Rangers 1 +3.7
+0.4
Oilers 4 Ducks 2 +3.7
+0.4
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 +3.6
+0.4
Oilers 2 Blues 0 +3.6
+0.4
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 +3.5
+0.4
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)+3.5
*+0.3
Oilers 3 Stars 1 +3.4
+0.4
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 +3.3
+0.3
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 +3.2
+0.3
Oilers 4 Devils 1 +3.2
+0.3
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)+2.9
+0.3
Islanders 0 Oilers 1 (ot)+2.9
+0.3
Oilers 3 Sabres 0 +2.9
+0.3
Coyotes 4 Oilers 3 (so)*-1.6
Oilers 3 Penguins 4 (so)*-1.2
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)*-0.7
Blackhawks 3 Oilers 2 (ot)*-0.5
Panthers 2 Bruins 1 *-0.4
Avalanche 2 Devils 3 (ot)*+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Avalanche vs Oilers-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
Blues vs Oilers-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Oilers vs Blackhawks+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Oilers vs Flyers+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Oilers vs Predators+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Oilers vs Sharks+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Stars vs Oilers-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ducks vs Oilers-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Oilers-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Rangers vs Oilers-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ducks vs Devils-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Sharks vs Ducks+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Ducks vs Thrashers-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oilers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
115110-0In1167211156
114100-1In87516413
113101-0In76726998
90-2In76626507
11291-1In252452,535
80-3In15246372
11192-0In142572,837
81-2In136632,569
70-4In13564167
11082-1In026745,980
71-3In023771,633
60-5In198162
10972-2In015855,775
83-0In017834,768
61-4In1288722*
10873-1In08928,888
62-3In07933,146
51-5In595194
10763-2In049607,321
74-0In04965,425
52-4In02981,123
41-6In39734
10664-1In29818,682
53-3In019813,472
42-5In298249*
10554-2In09735,808
65-0In09734,040
43-4In1963996*
10455-1In09195,573
44-3In090102,263
33-5In8713180*
10345-2In0782203,184
56-0In0801902,119
34-4In77230533*
10246-1In5840102,449
35-3In58402887
24-5In6039170*
10136-2In3757601,157
47-0In435070796
25-4In44487163*
10037-1In1962181774
26-3In1465183253*
9927-2In857332236
38-0In659315244*
9828-198.4%13444192129
17-3In3952933
9729-092.794935755*
9619-182.4635411817
95110-080.04040205*
93011-075.0136313138
Total:100.0%00118261000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Oilers 3 Flames 5 +1.3
Oilers 2 Coyotes 4 +1.3
Oilers 2 Kings 3 +1.2
Oilers 2 Capitals 3 +1.2
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 +1.2
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 +1.2
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 +1.2
Oilers 2 Wild 3 +1.2
Oilers 3 Stars 4 +1.2
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 +1.2
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 4 +1.1
Oilers 2 Senators 3 +1.1
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 +1.1
Canucks 2 Oilers 1 +1.1
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)-1.1
Flames 4 Oilers 3 +1.1
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 +1.1
Wild 2 Oilers 1 +1.1
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 -1.1
Kings 7 Oilers 3 +1.1
Predators 5 Oilers 2 +1.0
Canadiens 2 Oilers 1 +1.0
Capitals 10 Oilers 3 +1.0
Wild 5 Oilers 1 +1.0
Kings 3 Oilers 1 +1.0
Avalanche 5 Oilers 6 (so)-1.0
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 +1.0
Ducks 3 Oilers 2 +1.0
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 +1.0
Stars 3 Oilers 4 -1.0
Blue Jackets 1 Oilers 8 -1.0
Canucks 3 Oilers 4 -1.0
Flames 2 Oilers 4 -1.0
Predators 3 Oilers 5 -1.0
Coyotes 1 Oilers 7 -0.9
Blackhawks 3 Oilers 4 -0.9
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)-0.9
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 -0.9
Devils 1 Oilers 3 -0.9
Lightning 0 Oilers 4 -0.9
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 -0.9
Penguins 3 Oilers 5 -0.9
Oilers 5 Wild 2 -0.9
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 -0.9
Blues 1 Oilers 2 -0.9
Oilers 3 Avalanche 2 -0.8
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*-0.8
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 -0.8
Oilers 3 Canucks 2 -0.8
Oilers 3 Canucks 0 -0.8
Oilers 4 Avalanche 3 (so)-0.8
Oilers 4 Ducks 2 -0.8
Oilers 4 Rangers 1 -0.8
Oilers 5 Blues 1 -0.8
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 -0.8
Oilers 4 Coyotes 2 -0.8
Oilers 5 Kings 4 -0.8
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 -0.8
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 -0.8
Oilers 6 Predators 2 -0.8
Oilers 2 Blues 0 -0.8
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 -0.7
Oilers 3 Stars 1 -0.7
Oilers 4 Devils 1 -0.7
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 -0.7
Islanders 0 Oilers 1 (ot)-0.7
Oilers 4 Bruins 3 (so)-0.7
Oilers 3 Sabres 0 -0.6
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)-0.6
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)-0.6
Coyotes 4 Oilers 3 (so)*+0.2
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 -0.2
Oilers 3 Penguins 4 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Hurricanes 4 (so)+0.2
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.1
Blackhawks 3 Oilers 2 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ducks vs Oilers+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Oilers+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Stars vs Oilers+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Oilers+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1
Rangers vs Oilers+0.2+0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Avalanche vs Oilers+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Oilers vs Flyers-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Oilers vs Blackhawks-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Oilers vs Predators-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Oilers vs Sharks-0.1-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Oilers+0.3+0.1+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
115110-011335418101
114100-1533640151
113101-0342444233
90-2432146224
11291-1129433213
80-31110433412
11192-0014373027
81-2013333330
70-415304025
11082-1001252251
71-301222453
60-5192160
10972-200151470
83-000171469
61-40121374
10873-1008686
62-307588
51-55689
10763-20429400
74-004294
52-402296
41-6397
10664-1209700
53-30109701
42-5298
10554-2009702
65-0009702
43-4109603
10455-109109
44-309009
33-58713
10345-207802100
56-008001900
34-477230
10246-15840010
35-35804002
24-560391
10136-23757600
47-043500700
25-444487
10037-119621801
26-314651812
9927-2857332
38-0659315
9828-1134442172
17-339529
9729-0949357
9619-163541612
95110-0404020
93011-013631313
Total:000110775060100000