How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 -6.1
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Devils 4 -5.9
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 2 -5.8
-0.6
Maple Leafs 3 Sabres 5 -5.8
-0.6
Maple Leafs 2 Thrashers 4 -5.7
-0.6
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 -5.7
-0.6
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 -5.6
-0.6
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 -5.6
-0.6
Maple Leafs 3 Canadiens 8 -5.5
-0.6
Maple Leafs 4 Wild 5 -5.4
-0.6
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 4 -5.4
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 -5.4
-0.6
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 3 -5.4
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 -5.3
-0.6
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 -5.3
-0.5
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 -5.3
-0.5
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 -5.2
-0.6
Maple Leafs 2 Red Wings 4 -5.2
-0.5
Maple Leafs 2 Predators 3 -5.1
-0.5
Penguins 4 Maple Leafs 2 -5.1
-0.5
Senators 3 Maple Leafs 0 -5.1
-0.6
Maple Leafs 1 Flames 4 -5.0
-0.5
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 -5.0
-0.5
Lightning 5 Maple Leafs 2 -5.0
-0.5
Capitals 4 Maple Leafs 1 -5.0
-0.5
Sabres 7 Maple Leafs 2 -4.9
-0.5
Red Wings 7 Maple Leafs 1 -4.7
-0.5
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 -4.7
-0.5
Devils 1 Maple Leafs 4 +4.7
+0.5
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 -4.7
-0.5
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 -4.7
-0.5
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 +4.6
+0.5
Ducks 2 Maple Leafs 1 -4.6
-0.5
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 -4.6
-0.5
Islanders 4 Maple Leafs 2 -4.6
-0.5
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 -4.6
-0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 -4.5
-0.5
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 -4.5
-0.5
Wild 4 Maple Leafs 2 -4.5
-0.5
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 +4.4
+0.5
Islanders 2 Maple Leafs 3 +4.4
+0.5
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 -4.3
-0.5
Lightning 1 Maple Leafs 3 +4.2
+0.4
Predators 6 Maple Leafs 4 -4.2
-0.5
Avalanche 1 Maple Leafs 4 +4.0
+0.4
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 2 +3.9
+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 +3.8
+0.4
Kings 2 Maple Leafs 3 +3.8
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Panthers 3 +3.8
+0.4
Stars 4 Maple Leafs 5 (so)+3.8
+0.4
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 +3.7
+0.4
Maple Leafs 6 Hurricanes 2 +3.6
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)+3.6
+0.4
Maple Leafs 5 Flyers 3 +3.5
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Thrashers 2 +3.5
+0.4
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 +3.5
+0.4
Maple Leafs 3 Islanders 2 +3.4
+0.4
Maple Leafs 7 Lightning 3 +3.4
+0.4
Maple Leafs 3 Bruins 1 +3.4
+0.4
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 +3.3
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)+3.3
+0.3
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 +3.3
+0.3
Maple Leafs 1 Ducks 0 +3.2
+0.3
Maple Leafs 4 Blackhawks 2 +3.2
+0.3
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 +3.0
+0.3
Penguins 3 Maple Leafs 4 (so)+3.0
+0.4
Maple Leafs 4 Stars 2 +3.0
+0.3
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)+2.5
+0.3
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*-1.5
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)-1.4
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*+1.0
Predators 0 Canadiens 9 -0.9
Red Wings 5 Capitals 3 +0.8
Flyers 4 Canucks 1 -0.7
Sharks 3 Canadiens 6 *-0.5
Senators 5 Predators 3 *-0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Bruins vs Maple Leafs-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Bruins vs Maple Leafs-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Sabres vs Maple Leafs-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Maple Leafs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
92150-0Out25758
89-90Out10016*
88121-2Out96427*
87122-1Out1841575*
86112-2Out7624216*
85102-3Out6832473*
84103-2Out49511,000*
8393-3Out3466892
104-1Out3664922*
8294-2Out18821,572
83-4Out21791,446*
8184-3Out12882,371
95-1Out9911,433
73-5Out1090886*
8085-2Out5953,443
74-4Out4962,365
96-0Out4961,073*
7975-3Out2984,291
86-1Out1992,566
64-5Out2981,735*
7876-2Out01005,109
65-4Out01003,639
87-0Out01001,697*
7766-3Out01005,553
77-1Out01003,263
55-5Out01002,345*
7667-2Out10011,431*
7557-3Out10005,298
68-1Out10003,383
46-5Out10002,051*
7458-2Out10004,701
47-4Out10003,099
69-0Out10001,502*
7348-3Out9823,637
59-1Out9912,432
37-5Out9821,222*
7249-2Out94602,838
38-4Out94602,408*
7139-3Out841501,700
410-1Out861401,732*
70310-2Out663221,245*
29-4Out643420898*
69311-1Out39511001,109*
68211-2Out2053261525*
67212-1Out5414212239*
66112-2Out123393790*
65113-1Out11266327*
64013-2Out57437*
63014-1Out50502
62015-0Out1008
Total:Out0393300100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

We are out of the playoffs. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Although it might be more fun to go down swinging.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 +1.3
Maple Leafs 3 Sabres 5 +1.3
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 +1.2
Maple Leafs 1 Devils 4 +1.2
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 2 +1.2
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 +1.2
Maple Leafs 3 Canadiens 8 +1.2
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 +1.2
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 +1.2
Maple Leafs 2 Thrashers 4 +1.2
Maple Leafs 4 Wild 5 +1.2
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 4 +1.2
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 +1.2
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 +1.2
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 +1.2
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 3 +1.1
Maple Leafs 2 Red Wings 4 +1.1
Senators 3 Maple Leafs 0 +1.1
Maple Leafs 1 Flames 4 +1.1
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 +1.1
Maple Leafs 2 Predators 3 +1.1
Sabres 7 Maple Leafs 2 +1.1
Penguins 4 Maple Leafs 2 +1.1
Capitals 4 Maple Leafs 1 +1.1
Lightning 5 Maple Leafs 2 +1.0
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 +1.0
Red Wings 7 Maple Leafs 1 +1.0
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 +1.0
Ducks 2 Maple Leafs 1 +1.0
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 +1.0
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 +1.0
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 +1.0
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 +1.0
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 +1.0
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 +1.0
Islanders 4 Maple Leafs 2 +1.0
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 +1.0
Predators 6 Maple Leafs 4 +1.0
Devils 1 Maple Leafs 4 -1.0
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 -1.0
Wild 4 Maple Leafs 2 +1.0
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 -0.9
Islanders 2 Maple Leafs 3 -0.9
Avalanche 1 Maple Leafs 4 -0.9
Kings 2 Maple Leafs 3 -0.9
Lightning 1 Maple Leafs 3 -0.9
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 2 -0.8
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 -0.8
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 -0.8
Oilers 4 Maple Leafs 5 -0.8
Maple Leafs 4 Panthers 3 -0.8
Stars 4 Maple Leafs 5 (so)-0.8
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.8
Maple Leafs 5 Flyers 3 -0.8
Maple Leafs 4 Thrashers 2 -0.7
Maple Leafs 6 Hurricanes 2 -0.7
Maple Leafs 3 Bruins 1 -0.7
Maple Leafs 7 Lightning 3 -0.7
Maple Leafs 1 Ducks 0 -0.7
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 -0.7
Maple Leafs 3 Islanders 2 -0.7
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)-0.7
Penguins 3 Maple Leafs 4 (so)*-0.7
Maple Leafs 4 Blackhawks 2 -0.7
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 -0.7
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)-0.7
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 -0.7
Maple Leafs 4 Stars 2 -0.7
Panthers 4 Senators 5 (so)*+0.3
Blackhawks 4 Sabres 3 (so)*-0.3
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)+0.3
Blue Jackets 5 Senators 4 (so)*+0.2
Sabres 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-0.2
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*-0.2
Canadiens 6 Canucks 5 (so)*+0.2
Wild 3 Avalanche 2 (so)-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blues vs Maple Leafs+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.2
Sabres vs Maple Leafs+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Bruins vs Maple Leafs+0.3+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.0-0.1+0.2
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.3+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Sharks vs Maple Leafs+0.2+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.2-0.3
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+0.2-0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Oilers-0.2-0.2-0.3*+0.0+0.0+0.2
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.2-0.3
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.3+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Bruins vs Maple Leafs+0.3+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Avalanche-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Stars vs Canucks-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Canucks vs Flames+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Canucks vs Stars+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Canucks vs Red Wings+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Canucks-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Canucks vs Sharks+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Canucks vs Senators+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Coyotes vs Blackhawks+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
92150-0131375
90141-08317
89131-120106010
88121-2116326
87122-1453375
86112-233150142
85102-311748304
84103-2053443161
8393-311745343
8294-2053249141
83-4063248140
8184-3021749283
95-1011651283
8085-206394411
74-406404212
7975-32225026
86-101244926
64-51225027
7876-20104644
65-40114644
87-00114643
7766-333165
77-133265
55-533166
7667-211981
56-411980
78-011881
7557-308920
68-109910
46-50891
7458-203960
47-43970
69-03970
7348-31972
59-11981
37-51972
7249-209460
38-409360
7139-384150
410-186140
70310-266322
29-4643420
69311-13951100
68211-22053261
67212-15414112
66112-21243837
65113-1112663
64013-25743
63014-15050
62015-0100
Total:000014112160300