How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 3 -6.0
-0.6
Hurricanes 3 Capitals 5 -5.8
-0.6
Hurricanes 1 Lightning 2 -5.8
-0.6
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 -5.7
-0.6
Hurricanes 0 Blues 2 -5.7
-0.6
Hurricanes 1 Islanders 2 -5.7
-0.6
Hurricanes 2 Lightning 3 -5.6
-0.6
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 -5.5
-0.6
Hurricanes 3 Canadiens 6 -5.4
-0.5
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 -5.3
-0.5
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 -5.2
-0.5
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 -5.1
-0.5
Devils 3 Hurricanes 5 +5.1
+0.5
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 -5.1
-0.5
Penguins 5 Hurricanes 0 -5.0
-0.5
Thrashers 3 Hurricanes 2 -5.0
-0.5
Sabres 2 Hurricanes 0 -5.0
-0.5
Islanders 4 Hurricanes 3 -5.0
-0.5
Ducks 4 Hurricanes 1 -4.9
-0.5
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 -4.9
-0.5
Lightning 4 Hurricanes 3 -4.9
-0.5
Stars 6 Hurricanes 4 -4.9
-0.5
Maple Leafs 6 Hurricanes 2 -4.8
-0.5
Capitals 4 Hurricanes 5 +4.8
+0.5
Bruins 4 Hurricanes 5 +4.8
+0.5
Blues 4 Hurricanes 2 -4.8
-0.5
Panthers 5 Hurricanes 2 -4.7
-0.5
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 -4.7
-0.5
Penguins 4 Hurricanes 2 -4.7
-0.5
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 -4.6
-0.5
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 +4.6
+0.5
Rangers 5 Hurricanes 2 -4.6
-0.5
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 -4.6
-0.5
Lightning 3 Hurricanes 5 +4.6
+0.5
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 +4.5
+0.4
Kings 6 Hurricanes 2 -4.5
-0.5
Bruins 3 Hurricanes 4 +4.4
+0.5
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 -4.4
-0.5
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 -4.4
-0.5
Devils 2 Hurricanes 4 +4.4
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Hurricanes 2 -4.3
-0.5
Sabres 4 Hurricanes 5 +4.3
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)+4.2
*+0.4
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 +4.1
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 +4.1
+0.4
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 +4.1
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Sharks 3 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 +4.0
+0.4
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 +4.0
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 +3.9
+0.4
Hurricanes 7 Panthers 3 +3.9
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Devils 2 +3.8
+0.4
Hurricanes 2 Rangers 1 +3.8
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 +3.8
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 1 +3.8
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Rangers 2 +3.8
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 +3.8
+0.4
Predators 0 Hurricanes 4 +3.7
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Islanders 3 +3.7
+0.4
Hurricanes 2 Bruins 0 +3.6
+0.4
Hurricanes 7 Penguins 4 +3.6
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 +3.6
+0.4
Hurricanes 6 Bruins 4 +3.5
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)+3.5
*+0.3
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 +3.5
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)+3.4
+0.3
Hurricanes 2 Coyotes 1 +3.4
+0.4
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)+3.4
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Predators 1 +3.4
+0.3
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 +3.3
+0.3
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 +3.3
+0.3
Hurricanes 3 Red Wings 2 +3.3
+0.3
Hurricanes 4 Stars 2 +3.1
+0.3
Avalanche 3 Hurricanes 4 (so)*+2.1
*+0.2
Hurricanes 6 Flames 7 (so)*-1.6
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*-1.5
*-0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*-1.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Capitals vs Hurricanes-1.3-0.4*-0.1+2.0+1.7+1.6
Rangers vs Hurricanes-1.3-0.5*-0.2+1.8+1.8+1.8
Thrashers vs Hurricanes-1.2*-0.3*-0.1+1.4+1.7+1.7
Hurricanes vs Wild+1.6+1.1+1.5*-0.5-0.5-1.3
Hurricanes vs Kings+1.4+1.4+1.6*-0.4*-0.3-1.2
Hurricanes vs Thrashers+1.4+1.2+1.5*-0.3-0.4-1.3
Panthers vs Hurricanes-1.4-0.8*-0.6+0.9+0.9+0.8
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks+0.8+0.9+0.6-0.9*-0.3-1.5
Hurricanes vs Devils+0.4*+0.2*+0.3-1.2-1.0-1.6
Penguins vs Lightning-0.5-0.5-0.7*+0.3*+0.2+1.2
Flyers vs Panthers-0.3*-0.3-0.6*-0.2*+0.1+1.2
Flyers vs Bruins-0.3-0.5*-0.3*+0.1*-0.1+1.3
Flyers vs Maple Leafs-0.4*-0.3-0.6*+0.3*+0.4+1.0
Penguins vs Sabres-0.6-0.4-0.8*-0.4*-0.3+0.9
Senators vs Penguins+0.7*-0.1*-0.3-0.9-0.5-0.7
Flyers vs Islanders-0.4-0.4*-0.0*+0.0*+0.1+1.2
Penguins vs Senators-0.5-0.4-0.8*-0.0*-0.0+0.8
Penguins vs Thrashers-0.6-0.7*-0.5*-0.2*-0.2+0.9
Flyers vs Maple Leafs-0.4-0.3*-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+1.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Hurricanes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
10390-071.2%1175429125
10280-153.90114246330
10181-031.642868769
70-225.332275435
10071-117.1116832,282
60-318.911881376
9961-28.208922,674
72-08.208922,585
50-45.5695200
9862-13.303976,294
51-33.74961,820
40-51.529865
9752-21.21996,324
63-01.11994,902
41-41.1199720
30-66.779315
9653-10.401009,966
42-30.401003,494
31-5Out100179
20-7Out1001
9543-20.201008,237
54-00.201005,903
32-40.101001,095
21-6Out10027
10-8Out1001
9444-10.101009,551
33-30.101003,257
22-5Out100191
11-7Out1002
9334-20.001005,938
45-0Out1004,591
23-4Out100809
12-6Out10021
9235-1Out1007,586*
9125-20.0010002,537
36-00.0010002,245
14-4Out100246
03-6Out1003
9026-1Out9911,937
15-3Out991469
04-5Out10012
8927-0Out964613
16-2Out955565
05-4Out97329
8817-1Out8713333
06-3Out901048
8718-0Out831798
07-2Out693152
8608-1Out742627
8509-0Out574321
Total:2.0%002980100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Hurricanes 3 Capitals 5 +1.3
Hurricanes 2 Panthers 3 +1.3
Hurricanes 0 Blues 2 +1.2
Hurricanes 1 Lightning 2 +1.2
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 +1.2
Hurricanes 2 Lightning 3 +1.2
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 +1.2
Hurricanes 1 Islanders 2 +1.2
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 +1.2
Hurricanes 3 Canadiens 6 +1.1
Thrashers 3 Hurricanes 2 +1.1
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 +1.1
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 +1.1
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 +1.1
Lightning 4 Hurricanes 3 +1.1
Ducks 4 Hurricanes 1 +1.0
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 +1.0
Blues 4 Hurricanes 2 +1.0
Capitals 4 Hurricanes 5 -1.0
Stars 6 Hurricanes 4 +1.0
Sabres 2 Hurricanes 0 +1.0
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 +1.0
Panthers 5 Hurricanes 2 +1.0
Penguins 5 Hurricanes 0 +1.0
Islanders 4 Hurricanes 3 +1.0
Maple Leafs 6 Hurricanes 2 +1.0
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 +1.0
Devils 3 Hurricanes 5 -1.0
Lightning 3 Hurricanes 5 -1.0
Rangers 5 Hurricanes 2 +1.0
Penguins 4 Hurricanes 2 +1.0
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 +1.0
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 +1.0
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 +1.0
Kings 6 Hurricanes 2 +1.0
Bruins 4 Hurricanes 5 -1.0
Red Wings 3 Hurricanes 2 +0.9
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 -0.9
Bruins 3 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Sabres 4 Hurricanes 5 -0.9
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 -0.9
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 -0.9
Devils 2 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 -0.9
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)-0.8
Predators 0 Hurricanes 4 -0.8
Hurricanes 7 Panthers 3 -0.8
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 -0.8
Hurricanes 4 Sharks 3 (ot)-0.8
Hurricanes 2 Rangers 1 -0.8
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 -0.8
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 -0.8
Hurricanes 4 Islanders 3 -0.8
Hurricanes 4 Rangers 2 -0.8
Hurricanes 2 Bruins 0 -0.8
Hurricanes 4 Devils 2 -0.8
Hurricanes 7 Penguins 4 -0.8
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 1 -0.8
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)-0.7
Hurricanes 2 Coyotes 1 -0.7
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 -0.7
Hurricanes 6 Bruins 4 -0.7
Hurricanes 3 Predators 1 -0.7
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 -0.7
Hurricanes 3 Red Wings 2 -0.7
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 -0.7
Hurricanes 4 Stars 2 -0.7
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 -0.7
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*-0.7
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*-0.6
Avalanche 3 Hurricanes 4 (so)*-0.5
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.4
Hurricanes 6 Flames 7 (so)*+0.3
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*+0.2
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Hurricanes vs Devils-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Panthers vs Hurricanes+0.2+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Capitals vs Hurricanes+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Hurricanes vs Thrashers-0.2-0.2-0.2*-0.0-0.0+0.2
Hurricanes vs Wild-0.2-0.2-0.2*-0.0+0.0+0.2
Rangers vs Hurricanes+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Thrashers vs Hurricanes+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Hurricanes vs Kings-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
10390-01175429
10280-101014246
10181-0302868
70-2302275
10071-11016083
60-311881
9961-2008092
72-0008092
50-45195
9862-1030960
51-330960
40-5298
9752-210981
63-010971
41-410981
30-6793
9653-1009550
42-3009540
31-5955
9543-20087130
54-00087120
32-4086130
21-682144
9444-10074251
33-3074242
22-578202
11-7100
9334-20553950
45-057394
23-455405
12-65743
9235-13552130
24-33551130
13-53446191
9125-201954261
36-001756271
14-41357281
03-6333333
9026-1744444
15-35424670
04-585833
8927-033452111
16-222954141
05-4246214
8817-115552720
06-31956232
8718-01244404
07-22424610
8608-14224133
8509-019432910
Total:00002074195100