How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 -6.2
-0.6
Flyers 2 Canadiens 3 -6.0
-0.6
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 -6.0
-0.6
Flyers 2 Rangers 3 -5.9
-0.6
Flyers 3 Kings 4 -5.8
-0.6
Flyers 0 Islanders 2 -5.7
-0.6
Flyers 2 Senators 5 -5.5
-0.6
Flyers 1 Penguins 4 -5.4
-0.6
Thrashers 5 Flyers 3 -5.3
-0.5
Flyers 0 Senators 3 -5.3
-0.6
Penguins 5 Flyers 3 -5.2
-0.5
Rangers 5 Flyers 3 -5.1
-0.5
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 -5.0
-0.5
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 -5.0
-0.5
Flyers 2 Stars 5 -4.9
-0.5
Maple Leafs 5 Flyers 3 -4.9
-0.5
Thrashers 2 Flyers 1 -4.9
-0.5
Flames 6 Flyers 4 -4.8
-0.5
Penguins 3 Flyers 1 -4.8
-0.5
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 1 -4.7
-0.5
Senators 0 Flyers 3 +4.7
+0.5
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 -4.7
-0.5
Kings 3 Flyers 2 -4.7
-0.5
Bruins 3 Flyers 8 +4.7
+0.5
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 +4.7
+0.5
Capitals 7 Flyers 0 -4.6
-0.5
Panthers 2 Flyers 4 +4.5
+0.5
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 +4.5
+0.5
Devils 0 Flyers 1 +4.5
+0.5
Bruins 2 Flyers 3 +4.4
+0.5
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 -4.4
-0.5
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 -4.4
-0.5
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 -4.3
-0.5
Devils 0 Flyers 2 +4.3
+0.5
Lightning 3 Flyers 4 +4.3
+0.4
Blues 1 Flyers 3 +4.3
+0.4
Canadiens 1 Flyers 2 +4.2
+0.4
Islanders 5 Flyers 6 (ot)+4.2
+0.4
Predators 3 Flyers 5 +4.1
+0.4
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 +4.0
+0.4
Flyers 4 Lightning 1 +4.0
+0.4
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 +4.0
+0.4
Flyers 3 Devils 0 +4.0
+0.4
Flyers 2 Sabres 1 +4.0
+0.4
Avalanche 0 Flyers 2 +3.8
+0.4
Flyers 5 Devils 2 +3.8
+0.4
Lightning 0 Flyers 4 +3.7
+0.4
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 +3.7
+0.4
Flyers 4 Blues 2 +3.7
+0.4
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 +3.7
+0.4
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 +3.7
+0.4
Senators 2 Flyers 3 (ot)+3.7
+0.4
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 +3.6
+0.4
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)+3.6
+0.4
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 +3.5
+0.4
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 +3.5
+0.3
Flyers 4 Avalanche 1 +3.4
+0.4
Flyers 2 Flames 0 +3.4
+0.3
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)+3.4
+0.3
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 +3.4
+0.4
Flyers 4 Canucks 1 +3.4
+0.4
Flyers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)+3.4
+0.4
Flyers 5 Predators 1 +3.3
+0.3
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)+3.3
+0.3
Flyers 6 Coyotes 2 +3.3
+0.3
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 +3.2
+0.3
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 +3.2
+0.3
Flyers 4 Lightning 3 (so)+2.5
*+0.3
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*-1.7
*-0.2
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)-1.4
*-0.2
Panthers 3 Flyers 2 (so)*+1.3
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*-0.9
Thrashers 0 Avalanche 1 +0.8
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*-0.8
Capitals 0 Kings 1 *+0.6
Coyotes 5 Flyers 4 (ot)*-0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Rangers vs Hurricanes+0.5*+0.2*+0.2-1.2-0.9-0.7
-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Flyers vs Panthers+0.4+0.4+0.4*-0.2*-0.2-1.3
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.4
Flyers vs Islanders+0.4+0.3*+0.2*-0.3*-0.1-1.3
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.4
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+0.4+0.5+0.4*+0.0*-0.1-1.3
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flyers vs Bruins+0.4+0.4*+0.3*-0.4*-0.0-1.3
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.4
Islanders vs Flyers-1.1*-0.2*-0.2+0.6+0.4+0.5
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-1.0*-0.1*-0.2+0.5+0.5+0.5
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+0.4+0.3+0.5*-0.1*-0.3-1.1
+0.2+0.1+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.4
Oilers vs Flyers-0.7+0.3*-0.0+0.6+0.6+0.6
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Wild vs Flyers-0.6*+0.0+0.4*+0.5+0.7+0.6
-0.3+0.0-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Flyers-0.6*+0.1*-0.0+0.7+0.7+0.6
-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Flyers-0.6*+0.2*+0.0+0.6+0.5+0.6
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.5
Sabres vs Flyers-0.6*+0.2*+0.1+0.6+0.6+0.6
-0.3+0.0+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Flyers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
114120-0In60317258
113110-1In363716101197
112111-0In223314255491
100-2In243018226291
111101-1In10319302001,334
90-3In102383524240
11091-2In3243274041,748
102-0In4234273831,602
80-4In426122443154
10992-1In115117541104,262
81-3In115016531401,443*
10882-2In0808523104,848
93-0In0909542703,322
71-4In1984934691*
10783-1In0403424837,213
72-3In043405123,089
61-5In3239533216*
10673-2In21276377,234
84-0In21286184,350
62-4In21226691,307*
10574-1In101466198,357
63-3In101268194,052
52-5In1097416378*
10464-2In00660347,079
75-0In00761323,994
53-4In0561341,427*
10365-199.9%02455206,738
54-399.902455303,163
43-5In14851322*
10255-299.61326704,486
66-099.701326702,503
44-499.7030690874*
10156-198.70198013,516
45-398.300207821,693
34-598.717821157*
10046-296.40108641,985
57-097.10118631,140
35-494.28876381*
9947-188.7485111,333
36-390.55869558*
9837-280.827919556
48-081.718018458*
9738-168.46832348
27-360.76139112*
9628-260.2604098
39-058.1584293*
9529-133.8346665*
94210-022.6237731*
93110-140.040605*
90012-0Out1008
Total:99.1%14142041291100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Flyers 2 Rangers 3 +1.3
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 +1.3
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 +1.2
Flyers 0 Islanders 2 +1.2
Flyers 3 Kings 4 +1.2
Flyers 2 Canadiens 3 +1.2
Flyers 1 Penguins 4 +1.2
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 +1.2
Flyers 2 Senators 5 +1.2
Flyers 0 Senators 3 +1.1
Flyers 2 Stars 5 +1.1
Penguins 5 Flyers 3 +1.1
Thrashers 5 Flyers 3 +1.1
Rangers 5 Flyers 3 +1.1
Maple Leafs 5 Flyers 3 +1.1
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 +1.0
Penguins 3 Flyers 1 +1.0
Flames 6 Flyers 4 +1.0
Kings 3 Flyers 2 +1.0
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 -1.0
Bruins 3 Flyers 8 -1.0
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 1 +1.0
Thrashers 2 Flyers 1 +1.0
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 +1.0
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 +1.0
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 +1.0
Capitals 7 Flyers 0 +1.0
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 +1.0
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 -1.0
Senators 0 Flyers 3 -1.0
Devils 0 Flyers 1 -1.0
Bruins 2 Flyers 3 -0.9
Devils 0 Flyers 2 -0.9
Panthers 2 Flyers 4 -0.9
Blues 1 Flyers 3 -0.9
Predators 3 Flyers 5 -0.9
Canadiens 1 Flyers 2 -0.9
Lightning 3 Flyers 4 -0.9
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 -0.9
Flyers 3 Devils 0 -0.9
Avalanche 0 Flyers 2 -0.9
Senators 2 Flyers 3 (ot)-0.8
Islanders 5 Flyers 6 (ot)-0.8
Flyers 5 Devils 2 -0.8
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 -0.8
Flyers 4 Blues 2 -0.8
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 -0.8
Flyers 2 Sabres 1 -0.8
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)-0.8
Flyers 4 Lightning 1 -0.8
Lightning 0 Flyers 4 -0.8
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 -0.8
Flyers 4 Avalanche 1 -0.8
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 -0.8
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 -0.8
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 -0.7
Flyers 4 Canucks 1 -0.7
Flyers 2 Flames 0 -0.7
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 -0.7
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)-0.7
Flyers 6 Coyotes 2 -0.7
Flyers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)-0.7
Flyers 5 Predators 1 -0.7
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 -0.7
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 -0.7
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)-0.7
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 -0.7
Flyers 4 Lightning 3 (so)*-0.5
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*+0.4
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)+0.3
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*+0.3
Avalanche 5 Oilers 6 (so)+0.2
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)-0.2
Panthers 3 Flyers 2 (so)*-0.2
Coyotes 5 Flyers 4 (ot)+0.1
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Capitals vs Flyers+0.7+0.2+0.3-0.8-0.7-0.9
Wild vs Flyers+0.5-0.0-0.0-0.7-0.6-0.6
Sabres vs Flyers+0.6-0.0-0.0-0.6-0.6-0.7
Sabres vs Flyers+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.7
Oilers vs Flyers+0.6+0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.5
Maple Leafs vs Flyers+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4
Flyers vs Islanders-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.4+0.3+0.8
Flyers vs Maple Leafs-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.2+0.8
Islanders vs Flyers+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Flyers vs Bruins-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.8
Flyers vs Panthers-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.4+0.3+0.8
Flyers vs Maple Leafs-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.3+0.8
Devils vs Rangers-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
Canadiens vs Penguins-0.2*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.2
Rangers vs Blackhawks+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.1-0.0-0.3
Rangers vs Hurricanes+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.2
Penguins vs Thrashers+0.1+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2
Penguins vs Sabres+0.1+0.2+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Penguins vs Sabres+0.1+0.2+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Rangers vs Oilers+0.1+0.2+0.1*-0.1+0.0-0.2
Senators vs Penguins-0.2+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.1
Penguins vs Lightning+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Islanders vs Rangers-0.3*-0.0-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.1
Rangers vs Lightning+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Thrashers vs Rangers-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
114120-017433172
113110-13333779101
112111-022033782505
100-222230810226
111101-1193136291200
90-3010231733224
11091-2032403243404
102-0042304243383
80-44261193443
10992-111500114454110
81-31150012453140
10882-208006352310
93-008106454270
71-4180444934
10783-1031012420483
72-303012400512
61-531139533
10673-21101270637
84-02101280618
62-42001220669
10574-100001316619
63-3000012068019
52-501097416
10464-20005160034
75-00006161032
53-4004161034
10365-1011450520
54-3021450530
43-5104851
10255-201311670
66-00000311670
44-400291690
10156-1001718001
45-30001827802
34-51438211
10046-20828514
57-00928613
35-4628616
9947-12182311
36-3328339
9837-211726190
48-01171918
9738-15315310
27-3546381
9628-23723382
39-04117411
9529-11518579
94210-0101352233
93110-120204020
90012-0137513
Total:014000312004102801000