How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 -6.2
Flames 2 Ducks 5 -5.9
Flames 2 Oilers 4 -5.9
Flames 3 Canucks 4 -5.8
Flames 0 Predators 4 -5.8
Flames 1 Coyotes 2 -5.7
Flames 0 Red Wings 3 -5.6
Flames 2 Wild 4 -5.6
Flames 2 Blues 5 -5.5
Flames 3 Sabres 5 -5.5
Flames 0 Lightning 2 -5.5
Flames 0 Sharks 5 -5.5
Blues 3 Flames 2 -5.3
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 -5.3
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)+5.2
Flames 2 Canadiens 5 -5.2
Hurricanes 6 Flames 7 (so)+5.1
Sabres 5 Flames 3 -5.1
Wild 4 Flames 2 -5.1
Coyotes 3 Flames 1 -5.1
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 +5.0
Sharks 4 Flames 3 -5.0
Avalanche 1 Flames 2 +5.0
Flames 2 Capitals 3 -4.9
Ducks 3 Flames 0 -4.9
Flames 0 Rangers 5 -4.8
Canadiens 5 Flames 1 -4.8
Blackhawks 6 Flames 4 -4.7
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 +4.7
Sharks 6 Flames 3 -4.7
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 +4.7
Oilers 3 Flames 5 +4.6
Flyers 2 Flames 0 -4.6
Avalanche 1 Flames 4 +4.6
Panthers 2 Flames 1 -4.6
Penguins 5 Flames 2 -4.6
Islanders 5 Flames 0 -4.5
Stars 1 Flames 2 +4.5
Predators 1 Flames 3 +4.5
Senators 6 Flames 4 -4.4
Canucks 1 Flames 3 +4.4
Ducks 2 Flames 4 +4.3
Kings 1 Flames 2 +4.3
Predators 1 Flames 3 +4.2
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 +4.2
Capitals 4 Flames 5 +4.2
Devils 2 Flames 4 +4.1
Flames 2 Stars 1 +4.0
Flames 4 Blue Jackets 2 +4.0
Flames 4 Oilers 3 +4.0
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)+3.9
Bruins 1 Flames 5 +3.9
Flames 4 Canucks 3 +3.8
Flames 5 Predators 2 +3.8
Maple Leafs 1 Flames 4 +3.8
Flames 6 Flyers 4 +3.7
Flames 4 Wild 1 +3.6
Flames 5 Panthers 3 +3.6
Flames 3 Stars 2 +3.6
Flames 4 Devils 1 +3.4
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 +3.4
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)+3.2
Flames 2 Thrashers 1 (ot)+3.1
Flames 3 Senators 2 +3.1
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)+3.0
Flames 2 Islanders 1 +3.0
Flames 3 Bruins 2 +3.0
Flames 4 Kings 5 (so)*-1.7
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*-1.4
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*+1.4
Blues 2 Flames 1 (ot)-1.3
Flames 3 Coyotes 4 (so)*-1.1
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*-1.1
Kings 3 Flames 2 (ot)*-0.8
Flames 1 Blues 2 (so)*-0.5
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blue Jackets vs Flames-15.9-3.8-4.0+12.4+12.5+18.2
Blue Jackets vs Flames-16.0-3.1-3.6+12.1+12.3+18.1
Flames vs Blue Jackets+15.3+10.0+10.7-5.9-6.9-18.5
Blackhawks vs Flames-12.3-3.1*-1.8+11.7+10.4+10.7
Flames vs Avalanche+4.8+4.9+6.6-4.8-5.2-14.9
Flames vs Sharks+8.5+8.4+9.1*-1.4*-0.8-11.1
Flames vs Avalanche+4.6+4.1+5.8-3.9-5.2-13.8
Canucks vs Flames-10.5-2.3*-0.6+7.2+8.6+7.9
Flames vs Kings+10.0+10.1+9.8*+2.0*+0.7-8.7
Wild vs Flames-7.4+1.4+1.9+10.8+11.4+10.5
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets+5.0*-0.4*-1.1-5.4-6.1-5.5
Blues vs Blue Jackets+5.0*-0.2*+0.1-4.2-5.9-4.9
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+6.5*+1.4*+1.5-3.9-4.0-4.4
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-5.0-4.5-4.3*+0.5*+0.6+5.7
Kings vs Blue Jackets+4.4*-1.0*-0.9-6.2-5.6-6.0
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+6.4+1.9*+0.5-4.3-4.0-4.2
Islanders vs Blue Jackets+6.7*+0.8*+0.5-3.7-2.8-3.5
Wild vs Blue Jackets+4.5-1.4*-0.6-5.2-5.7-5.7
Sharks vs Blue Jackets+4.9*+0.0*+0.6-4.2-4.3-5.0
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes-3.0-3.3-3.3+3.1*+1.1+6.6
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets+3.9*-0.6*-0.6-3.5-4.1-2.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Flames finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
103100-0In3682972
10290-1In452422193
10191-0In130654488
80-2In032644325
10081-1In01673111,544
70-399.6%1375110277
9971-299.67672601,967
82-099.607702301,809
60-498.9765261175
9872-198.63573914,647
61-397.82573821,579
50-5In514951
9762-293.213855705,167
73-094.70395553,686*
51-491.80345780672
9663-185.5024621408,374
52-381.7023581803,395
41-585.3246115218*
9553-268.411583017,821
64-072.0011612714,829
42-466.811563211,292
31-652.5104345340
9454-151.954743509,056*
43-346.5044247603,946
32-534.8431578313
9344-229.7129571306,969
55-034.6133551004,233
33-423.6023601601,233
22-615.516711458
9245-116.3016582516,607
34-312.9013572912,863
23-58.1856352198*
9135-25.25474444,032
46-06.907494132,642
24-43.0347447600*
9036-12.4023454103,121
25-31.013158101,150
14-5Out25651079
8926-20.201663211,203
37-00.302056230996
15-4Out155530161*
8827-1Out951400909
16-3Out852391252*
8728-0Out441551279
17-2Out237582251*
8618-1Out237151133
07-3Out1383423
8519-0Out12781050*
8409-1Out7715813
83010-0Out89119
Total:54.2%0117363113200100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 +1.3
Flames 0 Predators 4 +1.2
Flames 3 Canucks 4 +1.2
Flames 3 Sabres 5 +1.2
Flames 2 Ducks 5 +1.2
Flames 2 Oilers 4 +1.2
Flames 2 Wild 4 +1.2
Flames 0 Lightning 2 +1.2
Flames 1 Coyotes 2 +1.2
Flames 0 Sharks 5 +1.1
Flames 0 Red Wings 3 +1.1
Flames 2 Canadiens 5 +1.1
Flames 2 Blues 5 +1.1
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 +1.1
Flames 0 Rangers 5 +1.1
Sabres 5 Flames 3 +1.1
Wild 4 Flames 2 +1.1
Blues 3 Flames 2 +1.1
Flames 2 Capitals 3 +1.1
Coyotes 3 Flames 1 +1.0
Hurricanes 6 Flames 7 (so)-1.0
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)-1.0
Canadiens 5 Flames 1 +1.0
Avalanche 1 Flames 2 -1.0
Flyers 2 Flames 0 +1.0
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 -1.0
Ducks 3 Flames 0 +1.0
Panthers 2 Flames 1 +1.0
Sharks 4 Flames 3 +1.0
Blackhawks 6 Flames 4 +1.0
Penguins 5 Flames 2 +1.0
Avalanche 1 Flames 4 -1.0
Oilers 3 Flames 5 -1.0
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 -1.0
Sharks 6 Flames 3 +1.0
Islanders 5 Flames 0 +1.0
Senators 6 Flames 4 +0.9
Stars 1 Flames 2 -0.9
Canucks 1 Flames 3 -0.9
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 -0.9
Predators 1 Flames 3 -0.9
Ducks 2 Flames 4 -0.9
Bruins 1 Flames 5 -0.9
Capitals 4 Flames 5 -0.9
Kings 1 Flames 2 -0.9
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)-0.9
Devils 2 Flames 4 -0.9
Predators 1 Flames 3 -0.8
Maple Leafs 1 Flames 4 -0.8
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 -0.8
Flames 4 Oilers 3 -0.8
Flames 4 Canucks 3 -0.8
Flames 4 Wild 1 -0.8
Flames 5 Predators 2 -0.8
Flames 6 Flyers 4 -0.8
Flames 4 Blue Jackets 2 -0.8
Flames 2 Stars 1 -0.8
Flames 5 Panthers 3 -0.8
Flames 2 Thrashers 1 (ot)-0.7
Flames 3 Stars 2 -0.7
Flames 4 Devils 1 -0.7
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 -0.7
Flames 3 Bruins 2 -0.7
Flames 2 Islanders 1 -0.7
Flames 3 Senators 2 -0.7
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)-0.7
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)*-0.6
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)+0.4
Flames 4 Kings 5 (so)*+0.3
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*+0.3
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*-0.2
Lightning 2 Canucks 3 +0.2
Blues 2 Flames 1 (ot)*+0.2
Stars 2 Wild 4 +0.2
Flames 3 Coyotes 4 (so)*+0.2
Oilers 3 Flames 2 (so)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blue Jackets vs Flames+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Flames+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Flames vs Blue Jackets-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.7
Blackhawks vs Flames+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Flames vs Sharks-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.0+0.5
Flames vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.6
Flames vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.6
Flames vs Kings-0.5-0.5-0.5*-0.1-0.0+0.4
Canucks vs Flames+0.5+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Wild vs Flames+0.4-0.1*-0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Canucks vs Stars-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Stars vs Blues+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.0-0.0-0.2
Avalanche vs Stars-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1
Stars vs Oilers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Stars vs Kings+0.1+0.1+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Stars vs Canucks+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.1-0.2
Stars vs Wild+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Sharks vs Stars-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets-0.1*-0.0*-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Kings vs Blue Jackets-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Islanders vs Blue Jackets-0.2+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Blue Jackets vs Oilers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Blues vs Blue Jackets-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
103100-0368624
10290-145234011
10191-013006413
80-203226203
10081-1016073110
70-313751100
9971-270671250
82-00707012200
60-47652611
9872-135713810
61-3205713721
50-55149
9762-213805452
73-003905542
51-403515662
9663-1024062860
52-30230581080
41-5246186
9553-2115812191
64-00116112160
42-4115614190
31-6104320253
9454-15047133230
43-30442143640
32-5332144650
9344-21291050100
55-013394880
33-40231055120
22-616106212
9245-1016555221
34-3013555261
23-58553331
9135-25247424
46-007250393
24-43148417
9036-10203453100
25-3103256100
14-5256510
8926-2001661221
37-0002055241
15-41455301
8827-1846424
16-3649396
8728-03364813
17-223251150
8618-11455292
07-396130
8519-0642448
8409-18588
83010-0117811
Total:01017036725112000