How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Penguins 3 Capitals 5 +4.5
+0.5
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Capitals 3 Senators 4 -6.0
-0.6
Capitals 4 Hurricanes 5 -5.8
-0.6
Capitals 1 Sabres 3 -5.7
-0.6
Capitals 2 Rangers 4 -5.7
-0.6
Capitals 2 Thrashers 4 -5.7
-0.6
Capitals 3 Rangers 5 -5.6
-0.6
Capitals 4 Flames 5 -5.6
-0.6
Capitals 2 Bruins 4 -5.6
-0.6
Capitals 5 Thrashers 6 -5.5
-0.6
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 -5.4
-0.6
Capitals 4 Islanders 5 -5.4
-0.6
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 -5.4
-0.6
Capitals 3 Canadiens 6 -5.2
-0.6
Lightning 5 Capitals 3 -5.1
-0.5
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)+5.1
+0.5
Thrashers 4 Capitals 0 -5.0
-0.5
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 -5.0
-0.5
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 2 -5.0
-0.5
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 -5.0
-0.5
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 -4.9
-0.5
Canadiens 5 Capitals 2 -4.8
-0.5
Rangers 5 Capitals 4 -4.8
-0.5
Capitals 0 Kings 1 -4.8
-0.5
Devils 1 Capitals 5 +4.7
+0.5
Canadiens 5 Capitals 4 -4.7
-0.5
Senators 3 Capitals 4 +4.5
+0.5
Panthers 1 Capitals 2 +4.5
+0.5
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 +4.4
+0.5
Kings 3 Capitals 2 -4.4
-0.5
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)+4.4
+0.4
Devils 2 Capitals 5 +4.4
+0.4
Canucks 3 Capitals 1 -4.2
-0.5
Red Wings 5 Capitals 3 -4.2
-0.5
Hurricanes 3 Capitals 5 +4.1
+0.5
Penguins 2 Capitals 3 +4.1
+0.4
Wild 3 Capitals 2 -4.1
-0.4
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 +4.1
+0.4
Predators 2 Capitals 5 +4.1
+0.4
Flames 2 Capitals 3 +4.0
+0.4
Coyotes 2 Capitals 3 +4.0
+0.4
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 +4.0
+0.4
Oilers 2 Capitals 3 +4.0
+0.4
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 +3.9
+0.4
Thrashers 1 Capitals 4 +3.9
+0.5
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 +3.9
+0.4
Senators 2 Capitals 4 +3.7
+0.4
Sabres 1 Capitals 2 (so)+3.7
+0.4
Ducks 4 Capitals 6 +3.7
+0.4
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 +3.7
+0.4
Capitals 5 Canadiens 1 +3.7
+0.4
Capitals 6 Devils 3 +3.7
+0.4
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 +3.6
+0.4
Capitals 7 Flyers 0 +3.6
+0.4
Capitals 7 Islanders 0 +3.6
+0.4
Capitals 2 Senators 1 +3.5
+0.4
Capitals 5 Lightning 3 +3.5
+0.4
Capitals 6 Penguins 4 +3.5
+0.4
Capitals 4 Maple Leafs 1 +3.5
+0.4
Capitals 4 Panthers 1 +3.5
+0.4
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)+3.4
+0.4
Capitals 4 Lightning 0 +3.4
+0.4
Capitals 3 Predators 1 +3.4
+0.3
Capitals 4 Sabres 2 +3.4
+0.3
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 +3.3
+0.3
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)+3.3
+0.3
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)+3.3
+0.3
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)+3.3
+0.4
Capitals 3 Devils 2 +3.2
+0.4
Capitals 10 Oilers 3 +3.2
+0.3
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 +3.1
+0.3
Capitals 6 Sharks 1 +3.0
+0.3
Islanders 4 Capitals 3 (ot)*-0.7
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*-0.7
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)*-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Capitals vs HurricanesInIn*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.5
Capitals vs Flyers+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*-0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.3-0.2-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Capitals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
114100-0In61820101819
11390-1In4414172221,616
11291-0In2916143293,801
80-2In2620133471,262
11181-1In12209382006,259
70-3In1021840190640
11082-0In6164363817,318
71-2In5174373614,692
60-4In517034421205
10972-1In21212754410,679
61-3In1121275451,893
50-5In3212646539
10873-0In0801766908,339
62-2In08016641206,582
51-4In080166412476
40-6In1457297
10763-1In04076622010,356
52-3In0407632502,293
41-5In475730189
10664-0In0203583526,123
53-2In023553825,298
42-4In1450423469
31-6In18364511
10554-1In11425066,412
43-3In11405351,549
32-5In53556362
10455-0In102658153,025
44-2In102658152,744
33-4In0196813272
22-6In80205
10345-1100.0%0014572902,611
34-3In0115832659
23-5In7524127
10246-099.70746470976
35-299.50546480856
24-498.784645178
13-6In1001
10136-198.7236611703
25-397.9133652141
14-5In33673
10037-095.3117785232
26-292.0120728162
15-4In188211
9927-187.358313110
16-386.423641422
9828-066.73633330
17-288.9891118
9718-156.3564416
9619-0In1001
94010-025.025758
Total:99.9%48216442050100,000
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1100.0*Lottery seed
Penguins 3 Capitals 5 -0.9
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Capitals 4 Hurricanes 5 +1.3
Capitals 2 Thrashers 4 +1.3
Capitals 4 Flames 5 +1.2
Capitals 5 Thrashers 6 +1.2
Capitals 3 Senators 4 +1.2
Capitals 1 Sabres 3 +1.2
Capitals 3 Rangers 5 +1.2
Capitals 2 Bruins 4 +1.2
Capitals 2 Rangers 4 +1.2
Capitals 4 Islanders 5 +1.2
Capitals 3 Canadiens 6 +1.2
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 +1.1
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 +1.1
Lightning 5 Capitals 3 +1.1
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 +1.1
Thrashers 4 Capitals 0 +1.1
Capitals 0 Kings 1 +1.1
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)-1.0
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 2 +1.0
Canadiens 5 Capitals 2 +1.0
Rangers 5 Capitals 4 +1.0
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 +1.0
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 +1.0
Canadiens 5 Capitals 4 +1.0
Red Wings 5 Capitals 3 +1.0
Canucks 3 Capitals 1 +1.0
Kings 3 Capitals 2 +1.0
Devils 1 Capitals 5 -1.0
Panthers 1 Capitals 2 -1.0
Thrashers 1 Capitals 4 -0.9
Senators 3 Capitals 4 -0.9
Hurricanes 3 Capitals 5 -0.9
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 -0.9
Wild 3 Capitals 2 +0.9
Coyotes 2 Capitals 3 -0.9
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 -0.9
Predators 2 Capitals 5 -0.9
Flames 2 Capitals 3 -0.9
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 -0.9
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)-0.9
Devils 2 Capitals 5 -0.9
Oilers 2 Capitals 3 -0.9
Ducks 4 Capitals 6 -0.9
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 -0.9
Penguins 2 Capitals 3 -0.9
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 -0.8
Senators 2 Capitals 4 -0.8
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 -0.8
Capitals 5 Lightning 3 -0.8
Capitals 4 Panthers 1 -0.8
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 -0.8
Sabres 1 Capitals 2 (so)-0.8
Capitals 4 Lightning 0 -0.8
Capitals 4 Maple Leafs 1 -0.8
Capitals 2 Senators 1 -0.7
Capitals 5 Canadiens 1 -0.7
Capitals 7 Flyers 0 -0.7
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 -0.7
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)-0.7
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)-0.7
Capitals 6 Devils 3 -0.7
Capitals 7 Islanders 0 -0.7
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)-0.7
Capitals 3 Predators 1 -0.7
Capitals 6 Penguins 4 -0.7
Capitals 10 Oilers 3 -0.7
Capitals 3 Devils 2 -0.7
Capitals 6 Sharks 1 -0.7
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 -0.7
Capitals 4 Sabres 2 -0.7
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)-0.7
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Hurricanes 4 (so)*+0.2
Islanders 4 Capitals 3 (ot)*+0.1
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Capitals vs Flyers-0.7-0.6-0.5+0.5+0.4+1.1
Rangers vs Capitals+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
Bruins vs Capitals+1.0+0.4+0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3
Bruins vs Capitals+1.0+0.3+0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3
Capitals vs Ducks-0.5-0.5-0.6+0.2+0.2+0.8
Capitals vs Blues-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.2+0.3+0.9
Capitals vs Hurricanes-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.3+0.3+0.9
Lightning vs Capitals+0.9+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5
Panthers vs Capitals+1.0+0.3+0.4-0.3-0.4-0.3
Capitals vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.5+0.4+1.1
Thrashers vs Hurricanes+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.5
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+0.1+0.2+0.2*-0.2-0.1-0.5
Blackhawks vs Thrashers-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.5
Hurricanes vs Thrashers-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Thrashers vs Rangers+0.2+0.2+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.4
Thrashers vs Canadiens+0.2+0.3+0.3*+0.0*+0.1-0.3
Ducks vs Thrashers-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Canadiens vs Thrashers-0.3+0.1*+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Penguins vs Thrashers-0.3+0.1+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Senators vs Thrashers-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.3+0.2+0.1
Senators vs Thrashers-0.2+0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3+0.1
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.0-0.2
Flyers vs Islanders+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.2
Canucks vs Senators-0.2-0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
114100-08538191101
11390-1341141342202
11291-012816953209
80-202620853407
11181-10122045371200
70-30102135392190
11082-0061613332381
71-2051712352361
60-45170304421
10972-1212001234544
61-3112001234545
50-532126465
10873-00700012466090
62-208000124640120
51-40801156412
40-6145729
10763-1040043660220
52-3040043630250
41-544257301
10664-0020011580352
53-202111550382
42-41013491423
31-6183645
10554-11001401506
43-31001392535
32-523342563
10455-00002435815
44-20002335815
33-401816813
22-68020
10345-1000104560290
34-308258032
23-5445241
10246-0052451470
35-2042460480
24-461451451
13-6100
10136-1113416101
25-31284652
14-53367
10037-011617705
26-21182728
15-41882
9927-13282113
16-314959514
9828-036333
17-283611
9718-15644
9619-0100
94010-0131375
Total:048011142430200500