How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Canadiens 1 Flyers 2 -6.0
-0.6
Canadiens 4 Rangers 5 -5.9
-0.6
Canadiens 3 Senators 4 -5.9
-0.6
Canadiens 2 Islanders 3 -5.8
-0.6
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 -5.7
-0.6
Canadiens 2 Rangers 3 -5.6
-0.6
Canadiens 1 Thrashers 4 -5.6
-0.6
Canadiens 3 Devils 5 -5.6
-0.6
Capitals 5 Canadiens 1 -5.3
-0.5
Canadiens 3 Blues 5 -5.3
-0.6
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 -5.3
-0.5
Senators 5 Canadiens 3 -5.2
-0.6
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 -5.2
-0.5
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 -5.1
-0.5
Blackhawks 3 Canadiens 1 -5.1
-0.5
Islanders 4 Canadiens 5 +5.0
+0.5
Lightning 4 Canadiens 2 -4.9
-0.5
Senators 3 Canadiens 0 -4.9
-0.5
Canadiens 1 Kings 2 -4.8
-0.5
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 -4.6
-0.5
Bruins 3 Canadiens 4 +4.6
+0.5
Capitals 3 Canadiens 6 +4.5
+0.5
Hurricanes 3 Canadiens 6 +4.5
+0.5
Panthers 3 Canadiens 6 +4.5
+0.5
Ducks 5 Canadiens 0 -4.4
-0.5
Lightning 2 Canadiens 4 +4.4
+0.5
Islanders 1 Canadiens 2 +4.3
+0.4
Devils 3 Canadiens 5 +4.3
+0.4
Blues 2 Canadiens 3 +4.3
+0.4
Devils 3 Canadiens 4 +4.3
+0.5
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 +4.2
+0.4
Flyers 2 Canadiens 3 +4.2
+0.5
Maple Leafs 3 Canadiens 8 +4.2
+0.5
Penguins 1 Canadiens 5 +4.2
+0.4
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 4 +4.2
+0.4
Penguins 1 Canadiens 7 +4.2
+0.4
Flames 2 Canadiens 5 +4.1
+0.4
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 +4.1
+0.4
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 +4.1
+0.4
Coyotes 0 Canadiens 5 +4.1
+0.4
Canadiens 6 Lightning 1 +4.0
+0.4
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 +4.0
+0.4
Rangers 1 Canadiens 2 +4.0
+0.4
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 +4.0
+0.4
Predators 0 Canadiens 9 +3.9
+0.4
Canadiens 4 Islanders 2 +3.9
+0.4
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 +3.8
+0.4
Canadiens 4 Bruins 0 +3.7
+0.4
Wild 2 Canadiens 4 +3.7
+0.4
Canadiens 6 Bruins 1 +3.7
+0.4
Canadiens 4 Panthers 3 +3.6
+0.4
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 +3.6
+0.4
Canadiens 5 Capitals 4 +3.6
+0.4
Canadiens 5 Capitals 2 +3.6
+0.4
Sharks 3 Canadiens 6 +3.6
+0.4
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 +3.6
+0.4
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 +3.5
+0.4
Canadiens 5 Stars 3 +3.5
+0.3
Canadiens 7 Lightning 1 +3.5
+0.4
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 +3.5
+0.4
Canadiens 4 Blue Jackets 1 +3.4
+0.3
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 +3.4
+0.4
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 +3.4
+0.3
Canadiens 6 Avalanche 2 +3.3
+0.4
Canadiens 6 Canucks 5 (so)+3.3
+0.3
Canadiens 6 Predators 2 +3.3
+0.3
Canadiens 5 Flames 1 +3.2
+0.3
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 +3.2
+0.3
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 +3.2
+0.3
Canadiens 8 Ducks 6 +3.1
+0.3
Canadiens 2 Oilers 1 +3.1
+0.3
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)+3.1
*+0.3
Canadiens 3 Senators 2 (so)+2.8
+0.3
Sabres 3 Canadiens 4 (so)+2.6
+0.3
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)+2.5
*+0.3
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*-1.3
Rangers 3 Canadiens 2 (ot)*-1.2
Red Wings 2 Senators 3 -0.9
Senators 1 Sharks 4 +0.8
Kings 5 Bruins 2 +0.8
Flyers 6 Coyotes 2 -0.8
Kings 3 Flyers 2 +0.7
Blackhawks 5 Lightning 4 +0.7
Senators 1 Stars 4 *+0.7
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)*+0.6
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+0.6
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 *+0.6
Senators 3 Bruins 2 *+0.6
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 *-0.5
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 *+0.5
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 *-0.5
Lightning 3 Avalanche 1 *-0.5
Blues 3 Blue Jackets 2 *+0.5
Blue Jackets 4 Red Wings 1 *+0.4
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 *-0.4
Blue Jackets 1 Oilers 8 *-0.2
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 *-0.2
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*+0.2
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.2
Stars 0 Kings 3 *+0.2
Penguins 3 Maple Leafs 4 (so)*-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Canadiens finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
122-128In10089,058*
12133-1In99014,814
22-3In991381
11-5In10011
12034-0In98022,787
23-2In9712918
12-4In914423
11924-1In91271,112
13-3In884875
02-5In1001
11825-0In80615522
14-2In82512114
03-4In1002
11715-1In581230100
04-3In60405
11616-0In38134852
05-2In38638
11506-1In1471147
11407-0In1010503010
Total:In1000000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Why are you looking down here? We just made the playoffs!

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 +1.3
Canadiens 3 Senators 4 +1.3
Canadiens 1 Flyers 2 +1.3
Canadiens 4 Rangers 5 +1.3
Canadiens 2 Islanders 3 +1.2
Canadiens 3 Devils 5 +1.2
Canadiens 3 Blues 5 +1.2
Canadiens 2 Rangers 3 +1.2
Canadiens 1 Thrashers 4 +1.2
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 +1.1
Senators 5 Canadiens 3 +1.1
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 +1.1
Capitals 5 Canadiens 1 +1.1
Canadiens 1 Kings 2 +1.1
Senators 3 Canadiens 0 +1.1
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 +1.1
Blackhawks 3 Canadiens 1 +1.1
Lightning 4 Canadiens 2 +1.0
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 +1.0
Islanders 4 Canadiens 5 -1.0
Bruins 3 Canadiens 4 -1.0
Ducks 5 Canadiens 0 +1.0
Maple Leafs 3 Canadiens 8 -1.0
Hurricanes 3 Canadiens 6 -0.9
Lightning 2 Canadiens 4 -0.9
Capitals 3 Canadiens 6 -0.9
Panthers 3 Canadiens 6 -0.9
Blues 2 Canadiens 3 -0.9
Flyers 2 Canadiens 3 -0.9
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 4 -0.9
Flames 2 Canadiens 5 -0.9
Devils 3 Canadiens 4 -0.9
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 -0.9
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 -0.9
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 -0.9
Penguins 1 Canadiens 5 -0.9
Coyotes 0 Canadiens 5 -0.9
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 -0.9
Islanders 1 Canadiens 2 -0.9
Devils 3 Canadiens 5 -0.9
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 -0.8
Rangers 1 Canadiens 2 -0.8
Predators 0 Canadiens 9 -0.8
Penguins 1 Canadiens 7 -0.8
Wild 2 Canadiens 4 -0.8
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 -0.8
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 -0.8
Sharks 3 Canadiens 6 -0.8
Canadiens 6 Lightning 1 -0.8
Canadiens 4 Islanders 2 -0.8
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 -0.8
Canadiens 4 Bruins 0 -0.8
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 -0.8
Canadiens 6 Bruins 1 -0.8
Canadiens 6 Avalanche 2 -0.8
Canadiens 5 Capitals 4 -0.8
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 -0.8
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 -0.8
Canadiens 5 Capitals 2 -0.8
Canadiens 4 Panthers 3 -0.7
Canadiens 5 Stars 3 -0.7
Canadiens 4 Blue Jackets 1 -0.7
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 -0.7
Canadiens 6 Predators 2 -0.7
Canadiens 2 Oilers 1 -0.7
Canadiens 5 Flames 1 -0.7
Canadiens 7 Lightning 1 -0.7
Canadiens 6 Canucks 5 (so)-0.7
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 -0.7
Canadiens 8 Ducks 6 -0.7
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 -0.7
Sabres 3 Canadiens 4 (so)*-0.6
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.6
Canadiens 3 Senators 2 (so)-0.6
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*-0.5
Penguins 3 Maple Leafs 4 (so)+0.4
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*+0.3
Rangers 3 Canadiens 2 (ot)*+0.2
Senators 1 Sharks 4 -0.2
Red Wings 2 Senators 3 +0.2
Predators 0 Senators 5 +0.2
Senators 1 Stars 4 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Canadiens vs Devils-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
12870-0100
12760-1991
12661-0982
50-2973
12551-1946
40-3946
12452-08713
41-28713
30-48416
12342-17525
31-37822
20-58317
12243-06238
32-26337
21-47129
12133-1455401
22-346531
11-53664
12034-03266002
23-23067102
12-4395244
11924-11676217
13-378148
02-5100
11825-08724115
14-27754112
03-4100
11715-115766291
04-3204040
11616-03868462
05-2251363
11506-114571414
11407-01010401030
Total:8118000000