How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blue Jackets 3 Avalanche 5 -5.9
-0.6
Blue Jackets 3 Stars 7 -5.9
-0.6
Blue Jackets 1 Oilers 8 -5.9
-0.6
Blue Jackets 3 Rangers 5 -5.6
-0.6
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 -5.6
-0.6
Blue Jackets 2 Ducks 3 -5.5
-0.6
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 -5.5
-0.6
Blue Jackets 3 Penguins 5 -5.5
-0.6
Blue Jackets 0 Wild 2 -5.5
-0.6
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 -5.4
-0.6
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 -5.2
-0.5
Blues 3 Blue Jackets 2 -5.1
-0.5
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 -5.1
-0.5
Predators 2 Blue Jackets 1 -5.1
-0.5
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 -5.1
-0.5
Blackhawks 3 Blue Jackets 2 -5.1
-0.6
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 -5.0
-0.5
Flames 4 Blue Jackets 2 -5.0
-0.5
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 1 -4.9
-0.5
Ducks 7 Blue Jackets 4 -4.8
-0.5
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 -4.8
-0.5
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 -4.8
-0.5
Sharks 2 Blue Jackets 1 -4.8
-0.5
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 4 +4.8
+0.5
Lightning 6 Blue Jackets 5 -4.8
-0.5
Rangers 6 Blue Jackets 0 -4.7
-0.5
Kings 6 Blue Jackets 3 -4.6
-0.5
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 -4.6
-0.5
Canadiens 4 Blue Jackets 1 -4.6
-0.5
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 -4.6
-0.5
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 3 -4.6
-0.5
Predators 0 Blue Jackets 2 +4.5
+0.5
Stars 3 Blue Jackets 4 +4.4
+0.5
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 +4.3
+0.4
Stars 0 Blue Jackets 5 +4.2
+0.5
Ducks 2 Blue Jackets 3 +4.1
+0.4
Blue Jackets 4 Red Wings 2 +4.1
+0.4
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 +4.0
+0.4
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)+4.0
+0.4
Blue Jackets 4 Red Wings 1 +4.0
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 +4.0
+0.4
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 +4.0
+0.4
Blue Jackets 6 Canucks 4 +3.9
+0.4
Devils 1 Blue Jackets 4 +3.9
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 +3.9
+0.4
Blue Jackets 4 Wild 2 +3.9
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)+3.9
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 +3.9
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Senators 4 (so)+3.8
+0.4
Blue Jackets 6 Predators 5 +3.8
+0.4
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 5 +3.7
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Kings 2 +3.6
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 +3.6
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Coyotes 3 +3.6
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Ducks 2 (ot)+3.6
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Stars 2 (so)+3.6
+0.4
Blue Jackets 4 Sharks 2 +3.6
+0.4
Penguins 2 Blue Jackets 3 +3.6
+0.4
Blue Jackets 4 Sharks 3 +3.5
+0.4
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 5 (ot)+3.5
+0.3
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 +3.4
+0.3
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 +3.3
+0.3
Blue Jackets 5 Predators 2 +3.3
+0.4
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 4 +3.2
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Bruins 2 +3.1
+0.3
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*-1.5
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*-1.3
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-1.1
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*+1.0
Blue Jackets 3 Kings 4 (ot)*-1.0
Islanders 0 Coyotes 3 -0.9
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)*-0.8
Panthers 3 Blues 2 +0.8
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)*-0.8
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*-0.7
Blue Jackets 3 Lightning 4 (ot)*-0.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Flames vs Blue Jackets-15.9-7.0-6.9+8.6+8.8+16.8
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.4
Blue Jackets vs Flames+14.1+5.4+5.9-8.7-9.1-18.3
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Flames+13.8+5.9+6.6-9.4-9.3-18.1
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.4
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets-11.2-2.6-3.4+7.8+8.3+9.3
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets-8.6*+0.2*+1.0+10.1+10.0+9.9
-0.3-0.0+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Kings vs Blue Jackets-7.3+1.4*+1.2+11.3+9.8+9.8
-0.2+0.0+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets-11.0-2.1-2.4+6.8+7.0+7.3
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blues vs Blue Jackets-8.5*-0.1*-0.8+7.8+9.7+8.7
-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Blue Jackets-9.0*+0.0*-1.1+6.7+7.9+9.1
-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Oilers+8.3+7.5+8.2*-1.7*-0.7-9.6
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.0-0.3
Islanders vs Blue Jackets-11.5-3.2*-1.0+5.9+5.6+6.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets-10.5-2.9*-2.0+7.1+6.6+7.0
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Blue Jackets-7.6+1.7*+0.5+9.8+10.0+9.9
-0.2+0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes+5.4+5.8+5.2-3.2-3.1-11.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Avalanche-2.7-2.7-4.5*+2.4+3.2+8.4
-0.0-0.0-0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.1
Flames vs Avalanche-2.4-2.1-3.6*+2.7+2.8+7.4
-0.0-0.0-0.1*+0.1+0.0+0.1
Flames vs Sharks-4.3-4.6-4.6*+0.1*+0.2+5.8
-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1
Canucks vs Flames+5.6*+1.0*+0.5-3.1-4.7-4.2
+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Flames vs Kings-5.2-5.4-5.2*-0.3*-0.8+4.6
-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Wild vs Flames+3.8*-0.7*-1.7-5.5-6.0-5.2
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Blackhawks vs Flames+4.5*-0.1*-1.9-5.2-3.9-3.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0
Avalanche vs Stars+3.6*+1.1*+0.9-2.2-1.6-0.9
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Oilers vs Blackhawks+1.3*-0.3*-0.2-3.3*-1.6-1.3
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks+1.0*+0.4*+0.7-3.4*-1.2-1.9
+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Stars vs Canucks-1.1*-1.1*-0.9*-0.6*+0.3+3.0
-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blue Jackets finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
106140-0In91911
105130-1In8071315
104131-0In631024371*
103121-1In4510378177*
102111-2In28546210499*
101112-1In14243402983*
100102-2In30295991,202
113-099.8%40305590801*
99103-199.81014632001,902
92-399.61013632301,491*
9893-297.406533933,245
104-098.46553721,185*
82-497.404534031,038
9794-193.7023953603,615
83-391.6013852803,737*
9684-282.2021611705,448
73-479.2020582011,952
95-084.2022621501,965*
9585-166.1010563315,157
74-361.29523724,719
63-554.6748433981*
9475-244.144051506,724
64-437.43345673,036*
86-048.3044448402,048
9376-128.5127601205,134
65-323.8123631305,062
54-520.3020641501,119*
9266-211.1011632516,050
55-49.6010612812,450
77-013.0013622412,100*
9167-15.25533933,877
56-33.33524233,712
45-53.1350443796*
9057-21.11385383,719
46-40.71385481,465
68-01.11395281,316*
8958-10.102458172,645*
47-30.2023581901,970
8848-2Out12563101,721
37-40.1012563201,273*
8749-1Out450451911
38-3Out446491873*
8639-2Out1316350992*
85310-1Out11766161467*
84210-2Out551396211*
83211-1Out137451789*
82111-2Out19582326*
81112-1Out171750176*
80113-0Out1006*
78014-0Out38638
Total:43.4%102132734175000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Blue Jackets 3 Avalanche 5 +1.2
Blue Jackets 1 Oilers 8 +1.2
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 +1.2
Blue Jackets 3 Rangers 5 +1.2
Blue Jackets 3 Penguins 5 +1.2
Blue Jackets 3 Stars 7 +1.2
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 +1.2
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 +1.2
Blue Jackets 0 Wild 2 +1.2
Blue Jackets 2 Ducks 3 +1.1
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 +1.1
Blackhawks 3 Blue Jackets 2 +1.1
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 +1.1
Blues 3 Blue Jackets 2 +1.1
Predators 2 Blue Jackets 1 +1.1
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 +1.1
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 +1.1
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 +1.0
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 +1.0
Flames 4 Blue Jackets 2 +1.0
Ducks 7 Blue Jackets 4 +1.0
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 1 +1.0
Lightning 6 Blue Jackets 5 +1.0
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 +1.0
Rangers 6 Blue Jackets 0 +1.0
Kings 6 Blue Jackets 3 +1.0
Sharks 2 Blue Jackets 1 +1.0
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 4 -1.0
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 +1.0
Predators 0 Blue Jackets 2 -1.0
Canadiens 4 Blue Jackets 1 +1.0
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 3 +1.0
Stars 0 Blue Jackets 5 -0.9
Stars 3 Blue Jackets 4 -0.9
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 -0.9
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 -0.9
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 -0.9
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 -0.9
Oilers 2 Blue Jackets 5 -0.9
Ducks 2 Blue Jackets 3 -0.9
Devils 1 Blue Jackets 4 -0.8
Blue Jackets 4 Red Wings 2 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)-0.8
Blue Jackets 4 Red Wings 1 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Avalanche 3 -0.8
Blue Jackets 6 Predators 5 -0.8
Penguins 2 Blue Jackets 3 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Senators 4 (so)-0.8
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 5 -0.8
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)-0.8
Blue Jackets 4 Wild 2 -0.8
Blue Jackets 3 Stars 2 (so)-0.8
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Coyotes 3 -0.8
Blue Jackets 6 Canucks 4 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Kings 2 -0.7
Blue Jackets 4 Sharks 2 -0.7
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 4 -0.7
Blue Jackets 3 Ducks 2 (ot)-0.7
Blue Jackets 5 Bruins 2 -0.7
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 -0.7
Blue Jackets 4 Sharks 3 -0.7
Blue Jackets 5 Predators 2 -0.7
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 -0.7
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 5 (ot)-0.7
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*+0.3
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*+0.3
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Lightning 4 (ot)+0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Kings 4 (ot)*+0.2
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)+0.2
Blackhawks 2 Coyotes 1 (so)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)+0.2
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 -0.2
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Flames vs Blue Jackets+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Flames-0.5-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.3+0.7
Blue Jackets vs Flames-0.5-0.3-0.4+0.3+0.3+0.7
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.6
Sharks vs Blue Jackets+0.5-0.0*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Blues vs Blue Jackets+0.5+0.0+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Wild vs Blue Jackets+0.4-0.1*-0.0-0.6-0.5-0.5
Kings vs Blue Jackets+0.4-0.0-0.1-0.5-0.6-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Islanders vs Blue Jackets+0.6+0.2*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.6
Avalanche vs Stars-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Flames vs Avalanche+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.2
Wild vs Flames-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Canucks vs Flames-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Stars vs Canucks+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.2
Flames vs Sharks+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Stars vs Oilers+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.1*+0.0-0.2
Stars vs Kings+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Flames vs Avalanche+0.0+0.0+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.2
Stars vs Wild+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Canucks vs Stars-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
106140-0919
105130-180713
104131-06310243
103121-145103717
102111-2285461200
101112-114204313911
100102-2302905927
113-04030055180
99103-110140631200
92-310130621220
9893-2065313820
104-065513710
82-4045313920
9794-1023905351
83-3013805272
9684-20210611350
73-40200581460
95-00220621140
9585-101005619140
74-3905221171
63-574823211
9475-2404021323
64-433422364
86-00444203020
9376-1127164880
65-3123175090
54-50201652110
9266-20111057211
55-40101058221
77-00131157190
9167-15552353
56-33551383
45-535493930
9057-211385180
46-412385180
68-01140508
8958-1002455191
47-3002256210
8848-21153343
37-4001152343
8749-144144110
38-34374711
8639-212151252
85310-111433791
84210-212244293
83211-18354512
82111-24234627
81112-117175017
80113-08317
78014-0253838
Total:1002013027102615410000