How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blackhawks 3 Sharks 7 -6.1
-0.6
Blackhawks 4 Predators 5 -6.1
-0.6
Blackhawks 1 Blues 2 -6.1
-0.6
Blackhawks 2 Ducks 5 -6.0
-0.6
Blackhawks 2 Red Wings 6 -5.9
-0.6
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 3 -5.8
-0.6
Blackhawks 1 Kings 4 -5.7
-0.6
Blackhawks 4 Stars 6 -5.7
-0.6
Blackhawks 3 Oilers 4 -5.7
-0.6
Blackhawks 1 Kings 5 -5.6
-0.6
Blackhawks 4 Red Wings 8 -5.6
-0.6
Blackhawks 2 Wild 3 -5.6
-0.6
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 -5.5
-0.6
Blackhawks 1 Blues 4 -5.5
-0.6
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 -5.4
-0.6
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 -5.3
-0.5
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 -5.3
-0.5
Sharks 3 Blackhawks 1 -5.3
-0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 -5.2
-0.5
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 -5.2
-0.6
Red Wings 6 Blackhawks 3 -5.2
-0.5
Canucks 5 Blackhawks 3 -5.1
-0.5
Predators 2 Blackhawks 0 -5.1
-0.5
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 -4.8
-0.5
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 -4.8
-0.5
Blues 4 Blackhawks 3 -4.8
-0.5
Stars 5 Blackhawks 2 -4.7
-0.5
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 -4.7
-0.5
Predators 3 Blackhawks 2 -4.6
-0.5
Blackhawks 4 Sabres 3 (so)+4.6
+0.5
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 -4.6
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Blackhawks 4 +4.6
+0.5
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 -4.6
-0.5
Islanders 7 Blackhawks 1 -4.6
-0.5
Maple Leafs 4 Blackhawks 2 -4.5
-0.5
Ducks 4 Blackhawks 5 +4.5
+0.5
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 +4.5
+0.5
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 +4.4
+0.5
Avalanche 0 Blackhawks 2 +4.4
+0.5
Wild 1 Blackhawks 3 +4.4
+0.4
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)+4.3
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 +4.3
+0.5
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)+4.3
+0.4
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 +4.3
+0.4
Canucks 0 Blackhawks 4 +4.3
+0.4
Thrashers 4 Blackhawks 1 -4.3
-0.5
Sharks 1 Blackhawks 5 +4.2
+0.4
Wild 1 Blackhawks 2 +4.2
+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Oilers 2 (ot)+4.2
+0.4
Ducks 0 Blackhawks 3 +4.1
+0.4
Blues 1 Blackhawks 2 (ot)+4.1
+0.4
Senators 3 Blackhawks 4 +4.0
+0.4
Devils 1 Blackhawks 2 +4.0
+0.4
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 0 +3.9
+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Blue Jackets 2 +3.8
+0.4
Blackhawks 7 Avalanche 3 +3.8
+0.4
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)+3.8
+0.4
Blackhawks 6 Flames 4 +3.7
+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Canadiens 1 +3.6
+0.4
Blackhawks 3 Ducks 1 +3.6
+0.4
Blackhawks 5 Avalanche 4 (ot)+3.5
+0.4
Blackhawks 5 Coyotes 4 +3.5
+0.4
Blackhawks 5 Islanders 4 (ot)+3.5
+0.4
Blackhawks 5 Lightning 4 +3.4
+0.4
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 +3.4
+0.3
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)+3.3
+0.3
Blackhawks 2 Devils 0 +3.3
+0.3
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 +3.2
+0.3
Blackhawks 1 Penguins 0 +3.1
+0.3
Blackhawks 5 Panthers 2 +3.0
+0.3
Blackhawks 2 Coyotes 1 (so)+2.6
*+0.3
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)-1.7
-0.2
Blackhawks 2 Stars 3 (ot)-1.5
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)*-1.1
Predators 6 Maple Leafs 4 *-0.7
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 *+0.7
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blackhawks vs Flames+5.7+3.1+3.8-4.5-3.8-6.4
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets+5.8+3.2+3.9-3.1-2.9-6.2
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Kings vs Blackhawks-3.4+0.7*-0.1+5.9+4.6+6.0
-0.2+0.1+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Kings vs Blackhawks-3.3*-0.0*+0.9+4.7+6.0+5.7
-0.2+0.0+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Blackhawks-3.9*+0.4*+0.1+5.2+5.0+4.9
-0.2+0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks-4.2-1.0*-0.2+4.2+4.3+4.8
-0.3+0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Rangers vs Blackhawks-3.5*+0.1*+0.4+5.4+5.1+5.1
-0.2+0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Lightning vs Blackhawks-4.1-0.9-1.3+3.7+4.4+4.0
-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blackhawks vs Thrashers+4.7+4.4+3.9*-0.0*-0.4-3.8
+0.3+0.3+0.2*+0.0-0.0-0.2
Coyotes vs Blackhawks-4.5-1.5*-0.7+3.2+3.8+3.7
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blackhawks vs Predators+2.7+2.8+2.3-2.2-1.7-4.6
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Canucks vs Flames+2.4*+0.7*+0.2-2.3-2.1-1.8
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Wild vs Flames+1.7*-0.4*-0.3-2.3-2.8-2.4
+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Flames vs Avalanche-1.1-1.2-1.1*+0.8+1.4+3.3
-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1
Flames vs Sharks-1.8-2.1-1.8*+0.5*+0.0+2.4
+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0
Flames vs Kings-2.2-2.5-2.0*-1.1*+0.1+2.0
-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Flames vs Avalanche-1.1-0.9*-1.1*+0.6*+0.6+3.3
-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1
Kings vs Blue Jackets+1.3*-0.3*-0.5-2.8-1.9-1.5
+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Oilers-1.6-1.1-2.2*+0.6*+0.3+1.7
-0.1-0.1-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets+1.6*-0.1*+0.0-1.9-2.2-1.8
+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes-1.3-1.0*-0.7*-0.5*+0.8+2.5
-0.0-0.0-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1
Wild vs Blue Jackets+1.5*-0.2*-0.2-2.0-2.2-1.9
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Islanders vs Blue Jackets+2.2+1.4*+0.4*-1.0-1.3-1.3
+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+2.0*+0.2*+0.4-1.5-1.0-1.3
+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1
Sharks vs Blue Jackets+1.7*-0.1*+0.5*-1.0-1.6-1.7
+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blackhawks finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
101110-0In888513
100100-1In10692129
9990-2In66034115*
9891-194.1%136576341*
9781-283.202459170482
92-086.92265131358*
9682-171.6012592721,206
71-370.91160272626*
9572-253.55494152,133
83-055.0550405921
61-453.4647407483*
9473-134.3133541203,343
62-329.922856142,178
51-531.30315415224*
9363-217.8018552705,005
74-019.1119542601,901
52-415.7016562801,513*
9264-18.008474326,013
53-36.77484414,293
42-56.3647452606*
9154-22.12336057,406
65-02.63355852,853
43-42.02326162,247
32-62.9325665170*
9055-10.6119681207,060
44-30.501770125,281
33-50.71167211728*
8945-20.109672407,299
56-00.1011652302,676
34-40.007682402,313*
8846-1Out4583715,925
35-3Out3583814,082
24-5Out456401563*
8736-2Out1435344,882
47-0Out1435331,923
25-4Out1415451,269*
8637-1Out02961103,215
26-3Out02564111,977*
15-5Out02464110212
8527-2Out014622401,970
38-0Out1464220918
16-4Out126325427*
8428-1Out5544021,045
17-3Out450442558*
8318-2Out23355100436
29-0Out4394970342*
8219-1Out01859221291*
8109-2Out445474108*
80010-1Out41451422
79011-0Out5534219
Total:8.9%0018234420300100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Blackhawks 2 Red Wings 6 +1.3
Blackhawks 4 Predators 5 +1.3
Blackhawks 3 Sharks 7 +1.3
Blackhawks 1 Blues 2 +1.3
Blackhawks 2 Ducks 5 +1.2
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 3 +1.2
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 +1.2
Blackhawks 4 Stars 6 +1.2
Blackhawks 1 Kings 5 +1.2
Blackhawks 1 Blues 4 +1.2
Blackhawks 3 Oilers 4 +1.2
Blackhawks 2 Wild 3 +1.2
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 +1.2
Blackhawks 4 Red Wings 8 +1.2
Blackhawks 1 Kings 4 +1.2
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 +1.1
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 +1.1
Blue Jackets 3 Blackhawks 2 +1.1
Red Wings 6 Blackhawks 3 +1.1
Predators 2 Blackhawks 0 +1.1
Sharks 3 Blackhawks 1 +1.1
Flames 3 Blackhawks 1 +1.1
Canucks 5 Blackhawks 3 +1.0
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 +1.0
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 +1.0
Blues 4 Blackhawks 3 +1.0
Predators 3 Blackhawks 2 +1.0
Islanders 7 Blackhawks 1 +1.0
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 +1.0
Oilers 7 Blackhawks 2 +1.0
Maple Leafs 4 Blackhawks 2 +1.0
Stars 5 Blackhawks 2 +1.0
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 +1.0
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 -1.0
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 -0.9
Coyotes 3 Blackhawks 4 -0.9
Thrashers 4 Blackhawks 1 +0.9
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 -0.9
Blackhawks 4 Sabres 3 (so)-0.9
Avalanche 0 Blackhawks 2 -0.9
Ducks 4 Blackhawks 5 -0.9
Wild 1 Blackhawks 3 -0.9
Devils 1 Blackhawks 2 -0.9
Canucks 0 Blackhawks 4 -0.9
Flames 1 Blackhawks 2 -0.9
Wild 1 Blackhawks 2 -0.9
Ducks 0 Blackhawks 3 -0.9
Blues 1 Blackhawks 2 (ot)-0.9
Sharks 1 Blackhawks 5 -0.9
Blackhawks 3 Blue Jackets 2 -0.9
Senators 3 Blackhawks 4 -0.8
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)-0.8
Blackhawks 3 Oilers 2 (ot)-0.8
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)-0.8
Blackhawks 5 Avalanche 4 (ot)-0.8
Blackhawks 6 Flames 4 -0.8
Blackhawks 3 Canadiens 1 -0.8
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*-0.8
Blackhawks 5 Islanders 4 (ot)-0.8
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 0 -0.8
Blackhawks 5 Lightning 4 -0.7
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 -0.7
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 -0.7
Blackhawks 2 Devils 0 -0.7
Blackhawks 3 Ducks 1 -0.7
Blackhawks 7 Avalanche 3 -0.7
Blackhawks 5 Coyotes 4 -0.7
Blackhawks 1 Penguins 0 -0.7
Blackhawks 5 Panthers 2 -0.7
Blackhawks 2 Coyotes 1 (so)-0.6
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)*-0.6
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)+0.3
Blackhawks 2 Stars 3 (ot)*+0.3
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)*+0.2
Canucks 4 Blue Jackets 5 (ot)+0.2
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Blackhawks vs Flames-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.5
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks+0.4+0.0+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Lightning vs Blackhawks+0.4+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Blackhawks vs Predators-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.5
Rangers vs Blackhawks+0.3-0.0*-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Kings vs Blackhawks+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Oilers vs Blackhawks+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Blackhawks vs Thrashers-0.4-0.4-0.3*-0.0+0.0+0.3
Kings vs Blackhawks+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Coyotes vs Blackhawks+0.4+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
101110-08885
100100-1106921
9990-2660232
9891-113605742
9781-20240591330
92-02216494
9682-10125917111
71-3116016121
9572-254920233
83-055022212
61-464718245
9473-1133193880
62-3228184210
51-5031134411
9363-20181149230
74-01191346220
52-40161051230
9264-108647381
53-37647401
42-56447412
9154-222345750
65-03236554
43-421335860
32-63129625
9055-1102067120
44-3001869120
33-510167111
8945-2009652510
56-001163251
34-40866251
8846-104533940
35-3353395
24-5352405
8736-213451131
47-013649130
25-413350161
8637-101949283
26-301749304
15-5017453250
8527-2073644130
38-074042110
16-463843120
8428-112049272
17-311749303
8318-207374780
29-0111423781
8219-132055203
8109-2443495
80010-14132235
79011-053425
Total:00108421401862000