Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit vs Minnesota	-8.2*+0.3+8.2		-1.4*-0.2+1.4		+1.4-0.6-1.4		-1.0+0.1+1.0
Chicago vs Cincinnati	-0.9*-0.3+0.9						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.5*-0.3-0.5
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.4*+0.2-0.4						+0.1-0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago vs Minnesota	-8.2*-0.3+8.2		-1.3*-0.4+1.3		+1.4*-0.4-1.4		-1.0+0.0+1.0
Green Bay vs Washington	-0.5*-0.5+0.5						-0.0-0.1+0.0
Arizona vs Detroit	+0.5*+0.2-0.5
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.4*+0.5-0.4						+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.4*+0.6-0.4						+0.1+0.1-0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.4*+0.1-0.4		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.4*+0.2-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Minnesota finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		99.7	%	100	0															No		329
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		77.8		100																No		9
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		90.5		100	0				0											No		744	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		93.8		98	1			1												No		112
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.9	%	77.0		98	1			1	0	0	0	0	0							No		5,957	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.9		66.6		96	2			2	0			0								No		686
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.8		55.7		91	6	0		3	1	0	0	0	0	0			0			No		28,411
		12	-	2	-	2	In		48.8		91	7			2												No		43
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.5		43.4		85	9	0		5	1	0	0		0							No		2,928	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.7		32.0		69	19	2	0	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		91,387
		11	-	3	-	2	In		29.5		74	14	2		5	5											No		129
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	97.3		20.6		55	26	3	0	9	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		8,704	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	93.6		13.9		34	31	9	1	12	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		219,829
		10	-	4	-	2	96.0		15.6		37	29	8	2	13	7	2	1	0	0							No		371
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	88.5		7.8		19	31	15	2	13	9	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		19,492
		9	-	4	-	3	80.0		No		40	20			20							20					No		5
10		10	-	6	-	0	79.6		4.2		8	22	20	6	14	11	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	403,532
		9	-	5	-	2	80.7		3.0		8	21	18	6	15	12	7	6	4	1	1	0	0	0			No		792
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	68.9		1.8		2	12	20	9	14	12	10	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		32,167
		8	-	5	-	3	71.4		No			14	19	14	14	10	5	14	5			5					No		21
9		9	-	7	-	0	55.5		0.9		1	5	14	12	11	12	11	9	8	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0.0		576,412
		8	-	6	-	2	53.4		0.8		1	5	14	11	12	10	12	10	8	7	5	3	2	0	0	0	No		1,175
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	42.0		0.3		0	1	8	13	9	11	11	11	10	8	6	5	3	2	1	0	0.0		41,752
		7	-	6	-	3	47.1		2.9				12	12	12	12	9	9	9	12	12	3					No		34
8		8	-	8	-	0	29.3		0.1		0	0	3	11	6	8	10	11	11	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.1		647,888
		7	-	7	-	2	28.9		No			0	4	10	5	9	10	12	12	12	8	7	5	3	2	1	0.1		1,356
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	18.2		0.0			0	1	8	3	6	8	10	11	11	11	10	9	6	4	1	0.2		41,754
		6	-	7	-	3	4.8		No					5			10	5	10	10	19	5	19	14	5		No		21
7		7	-	9	-	0	11.0		0.0			0	0	5	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	12	12	10	7	3	0.9		575,628
		6	-	8	-	2	10.8		No				0	5	3	3	4	8	10	11	14	11	11	10	7	4	0.7		1,151	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	5.4		No				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	9	11	14	14	14	11	6	1.9		32,259
		5	-	8	-	3	5.6		No						6				6		28	11	6	11	22	11	No		18
6		6	-	10	-	0	2.8		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	15	17	16	12	4.2		402,393
		5	-	9	-	2	1.8		No					1	0	0	1	3	4	7	9	12	16	19	17	10	3.6		843
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.0		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	4	7	10	14	19	21	19	7.6		19,628
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No										8		8	8	8	17	17	33	No		12
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.5		No				0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	12	18	25	28	13.9		219,382
		4	-	10	-	2	0.8		No					1		0		0	2	2	3	9	12	18	25	28	11.3		379
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	9	17	27	38	21.2		8,840	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	12	26	51	32.2		91,643
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No											1		2	10	16	29	43	25.6		133
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.1		No							0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	9	24	61	44.1		2,912
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.0		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	19	72	55.8		28,270
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No														3	6	24	67	42.4		33
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No													0	0	4	15	80	66.5		660
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No								0		0	0	0	0	0	1	10	87	77.2		5,984
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																20	80	80.0		5
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No														1		2	97	86.5		96
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No													0	0	0	3	97	92.8		825	*
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	99.1		338	*

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	3,517,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit vs Minnesota	+1.9-0.2-1.9

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Minnesota	+1.9*+0.0-1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	100	0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	78	22
15		15	-	1	-	0	90	8	1	0			0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	94	5	1
14		14	-	2	-	0	77	16	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	67	21	7	2	1	0	1	0			0	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	56	23	10	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0		0									0
		12	-	2	-	2	49	26	5	5	9	7
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	43	24	14	8	5	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	32	23	15	10	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	29	23	15	10	7	7	3	2	1	1	2
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	21	20	16	12	9	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0									0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	14	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	16	16	14	13	11	8	6	4	3	3	3	2	1	0	0	1			0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	11	11	11	10	9	8	6	6	5	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
10		10	-	6	-	0	4	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	3	6	9	8	9	9	7	9	8	5	6	5	3	3	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	0		0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3			5	14	14		5	14	14		14		5	5	5							5
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	1	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	6	5	5	5	5	5	3	3	3	2	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3	3			3	12	3	6		9		3	9	3	6		3	9	15		15	3
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2		0	1	1	1	2	3	3	3	5	4	5	6	6	5	6	7	5	5	5	5	5	3	3	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3																14	19	5	14	5				5		14	10	10	5
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	4	4	4	4	6	6	6	6	6	7	6	7	7	4	5	3	3	2	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3								6											6	6	6	11	11		11	11			6	17	11
6		6	-	10	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	8	7	4
		5	-	9	-	2						0		0	0	0		0	0	1	1	2	1	2	3	2	3	6	6	6	9	9	12	9	7	8	7	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1			0		0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	5	7	8	9	10	11	12	11	8
		4	-	9	-	3																	8						8	8			17		8	17	33
5		5	-	11	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2									0						0	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	5	4	7	9	11	9	15	18	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1				0							0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	7	9	12	15	20	21
4		4	-	12	-	0			0	0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	7	10	15	23	32
		3	-	11	-	2																					1			2	1	2	5	8	11	19	26	26
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1													0	0		0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	4	8	14	23	44
3		3	-	13	-	0				0								0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	11	23	56
		2	-	12	-	2																										3			9	15	30	42
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																								0	0	0	1	1	3	8	20	67
2		2	-	14	-	0																0		0	0		0		0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	16	77
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																								1							13	86
1		1	-	15	-	0																			0			0							0	1	6	93
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																																100
0		0	-	16	-	0																															1	99

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3