Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Miami vs Cleveland	+7.6*-0.2-7.6		+1.4*-0.2-1.4		-1.3-0.5+1.4		+0.9+0.0-0.9
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.8*+0.6+0.8						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+0.4*-0.1-0.4

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Miami vs Indianapolis	+7.7*-0.1-7.6		+1.4*-0.3-1.4		-1.4*-0.3+1.4		+0.9+0.1-0.9
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.9*-0.3+0.9						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.4*+0.8+0.4						-0.1*+0.1+0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.4*+0.1+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.4*-0.1+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Miami finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

14.5	-16						In		93.4	%	100																No		1,229	*
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.9	%	78.0		98	1			1	0		0	0	0							No		6,014	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.8		68.0		97	2			1					0							No		635
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.8		55.9		91	6	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0		0	0	0			No		28,087
		12	-	2	-	2	In		68.4		92	8															No		38
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.5		43.1		85	9	0		5	1	0	0		0							No		2,919	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.6		31.9		70	19	2	0	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		92,027
		11	-	3	-	2	96.4		32.8		70	14	3		7	3	1	2									No		137
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	97.3		21.8		56	25	4	0	9	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0				No		8,946	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	93.7		13.8		34	31	9	1	12	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		220,107
		10	-	4	-	2	96.0		13.9		36	31	9	1	13	6	3	0	0	0							No		403
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	88.6		7.8		19	30	15	2	14	9	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		19,522
		9	-	4	-	3	In		No		18	36	27		18												No		11
10		10	-	6	-	0	79.5		4.2		8	22	19	6	14	11	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	No		402,400
		9	-	5	-	2	79.1		3.7		6	23	20	4	16	10	8	5	3	2	1	1	0				No		790
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	68.8		1.9		2	12	19	9	14	12	10	8	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	No		32,323
		8	-	5	-	3	62.5		No			6	19	6	6	25		13	13	6	6						No		16
9		9	-	7	-	0	55.6		0.9		1	5	14	13	11	12	11	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0.0	%	577,013
		8	-	6	-	2	54.8		0.7		0	5	13	12	12	11	12	11	7	5	5	3	2	0	0	0	No		1,215	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.5		0.3		0	1	8	13	9	11	11	11	10	8	7	5	3	2	1	0	0.0		41,485
		7	-	6	-	3	42.1		No		5		5	16	5	11	5	5	16	16	5		5	5			No		19
8		8	-	8	-	0	29.3		0.1		0	0	4	11	6	8	10	11	11	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.1		646,712
		7	-	7	-	2	28.6		No			0	4	11	5	9	9	9	13	12	10	7	5	4	1	1	0.2		1,246
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	18.1		0.0		0	0	1	8	3	6	8	10	11	12	11	11	8	6	4	1	0.2		41,428
		6	-	7	-	3	11.1		No					11			11		11	17	28	11		11			No		18
7		7	-	9	-	0	11.0		0.0			0	0	5	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	12	12	10	7	3	0.8		576,364
		6	-	8	-	2	9.3		No				1	4	1	3	4	8	11	12	12	13	13	10	6	3	0.3		1,209	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	5.5		No				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	13	14	14	11	6	1.8		32,101
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No									9		18	9	27	18	18			No		11
6		6	-	10	-	0	2.8		0.0				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	15	17	16	12	4.3		403,159
		5	-	9	-	2	2.4		No					1	0	1	2	2	5	7	9	11	15	16	20	11	4.6		851
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.1		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	4	7	10	14	18	21	19	7.8		19,443
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No									22			22			11	22	22	No		9
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.5		No				0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	7	12	18	25	28	14.0		220,080
		4	-	10	-	2	0.5		No					1			1	1	2	2	6	6	11	20	27	24	11.1		397
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	8	16	27	39	22.4		8,973
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No											20				40		40	40.0		5
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	13	26	50	32.0		91,025
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No										1		1	1	9	6	30	52	34.5		148
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No								0	0	0	0	1	1	3	9	23	63	44.3		2,890
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.0		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	19	72	55.9		28,086
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No															6	18	76	57.6		33
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No													0	1	4	14	80	67.9		691
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No								0	0	0		0	0	0	1	10	88	77.0		6,055
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	Yes		8
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																4	96	89.4		104
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No														0	1	3	96	88.0		753	*
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																	100	Yes		7
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																1	99	99.1		330

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	3,517,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami vs Cleveland	-1.9-0.0+1.9

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami vs Indianapolis	-1.9*-0.1+1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	99	1								0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	93	7	1	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	82	17	1
14		14	-	2	-	0	78	15	4	2	1	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	68	20	7	2	1	0	0	0						0
13		13	-	3	-	0	56	23	10	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0								0
		12	-	2	-	2	68	16	8	5	3
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	43	25	13	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0
12		12	-	4	-	0	32	23	15	10	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0
		11	-	3	-	2	33	21	18	8	5	4	5	2	1		1	1			1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	22	21	16	12	9	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	14	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	14	17	12	11	13	10	6	5	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	11	11	11	10	9	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3		9	18	27	36	9
10		10	-	6	-	0	4	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	6	8	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	5	5	3	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3			19			13	6	6	6	6	6			6	13	6		6	6
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	2	3	3	5	6	6	5	7	6	6	5	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0		0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	2	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3					5	5			5	5	5	16	11		5	5	5	5		11			5		5			5
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2		0	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	6	5	5	6	5	6	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	0	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	2	1	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3						6					6				11	11	6	6	17		11		6	22
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2				0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	5	7	7	7	6	7	6	5	3	2	2	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3													9				9				9	9	9	9	9	9	9		9	9
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	9	8	7	4
		5	-	9	-	2		0			0			0			0	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	4	5	7	7	8	9	10	10	8	6	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1			0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	6	8	9	10	11	11	11	8
		4	-	9	-	3												22										11			11		11		11	11	22
5		5	-	11	-	0			0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2												0	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	6	6	11	15	17	13	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1			0									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	4	6	8	12	16	20	22
4		4	-	12	-	0			0	0	0	0	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	7	10	15	23	32
		3	-	11	-	2																			1	1	1		1	1	1	2	6	5	10	17	20	34
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1												0		0				0			0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	7	13	24	44
3		3	-	13	-	0			0								0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	10	23	56
		2	-	12	-	2																											3		6	21	12	58
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																									0	0	1	2	3	9	18	68
2		2	-	14	-	0														0	0				0	0		0	0		0	0	0	1	2	5	16	77
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																												1		2	8	89
1		1	-	15	-	0																							0					0	0	1	10	88
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																																100
0		0	-	16	-	0																															1	99

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3