SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Houston Texans Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Houston vs San Diego	+7.6*-0.6-7.6		+1.4-0.4-1.4		-1.4-0.5+1.4		+0.9*-0.0-0.9
Indianapolis vs Oakland	-0.5*-0.1+0.5
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+0.5*-0.1-0.5
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	-0.5*-0.3+0.5
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.4*+0.3+0.4
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+0.4*-0.1-0.4

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Houston vs Tennessee	+8.2*-0.3-8.2		+1.4-0.5-1.4		-1.4*-0.3+1.4		+1.0-0.0-1.0
Oakland vs Jacksonville	+0.6*+0.3-0.6
Miami vs Indianapolis	+0.4*+0.1-0.4
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.4*+0.5+0.4						-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.4*-0.4+0.4						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.4*-0.1+0.4
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.4*+1.0+0.3						-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		99.7	%	100																No		330	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.9	%	92.1		100				0					0							No		806
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		84.2		98				2												No		95
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.9		77.3		98	1			1	0	0	0		0	0						No		6,033	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.7		66.6		96	1			2	0	0	0									No		685
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.8		55.9		91	5	0		3	0	0	0	0	0	0		0				No		27,998
		12	-	2	-	2	In		52.6		89	8			3												No		38
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.5		43.1		85	10	0		4	1	0	0	0	0							No		2,810	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.7		32.3		69	19	2	0	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		91,103
		11	-	3	-	2	99.3		29.1		76	15			8	1	1										No		148
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	97.3		21.1		55	25	3	0	10	4	2	1	0	0	0						No		8,805	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	93.6		14.0		34	31	9	1	12	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		218,618
		10	-	4	-	2	93.5		11.9		34	31	10		14	5	4	1	1	1	0						No		387
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	88.5		7.4		19	31	15	2	13	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		19,581
		9	-	4	-	3	81.8		No		18	27	18	9	9		9		9								No		11
10		10	-	6	-	0	79.6		4.2		8	22	19	6	14	11	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	404,245
		9	-	5	-	2	82.7		3.1		9	22	19	5	17	11	8	4	2	1	1	1	0				No		786	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	69.4		1.7		2	12	20	9	14	12	10	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	No		32,256
		8	-	5	-	3	62.5		4.2		8	25	4	13	8	4	17	13	4		4						No		24
9		9	-	7	-	0	55.6		0.9		1	5	14	13	11	12	11	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0.0		575,879
		8	-	6	-	2	55.7		0.8		0	5	13	12	12	13	12	9	8	6	4	3	1	1	0		No		1,154
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.5		0.3		0	1	8	13	9	11	12	11	10	8	7	5	3	2	1	0	0.0		41,920
		7	-	6	-	3	36.4		No			5	5	5	9	14	9	18	14	9	9			5			No		22
8		8	-	8	-	0	29.3		0.1		0	0	3	11	6	8	10	11	11	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.1		646,850
		7	-	7	-	2	27.7		0.1			0	3	10	6	9	11	12	12	10	9	8	5	3	1	1	0.3		1,355
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	17.8		0.0			0	1	8	3	6	8	10	11	12	11	10	8	6	4	2	0.3		41,468
		6	-	7	-	3	7.1		No				4		4			7	14	7	7	11	18	11	7	11	No		28
7		7	-	9	-	0	11.0		0.0		0	0	0	5	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	12	12	10	7	3	0.8		576,969
		6	-	8	-	2	8.3		No				0	4	1	3	5	6	9	11	11	16	13	10	6	3	0.4		1,137	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	5.4		No				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	9	11	13	14	14	11	6	1.8		32,138
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No								5	5	5	11	11	26	11		16	11	10.5		19
6		6	-	10	-	0	2.9		0.0				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	15	17	16	12	4.2		403,520
		5	-	9	-	2	2.7		No				0	1	1	1	1	3	5	6	9	13	14	18	17	12	3.8		742	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.1		No					1	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	10	14	18	22	19	7.9		19,766
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No															44	22	33	No		9
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.5		No				0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	7	12	18	25	28	13.9		219,537
		4	-	10	-	2	1.0		No					1				1	0	3	4	5	12	19	28	27	10.0		391
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	8	16	27	38	21.3		8,836
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No														17	33	33	17	No		6
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	12	26	51	32.3		91,473
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No													2	4	12	29	54	31.7		126
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No									0		0	1	1	3	8	25	62	43.1		3,007	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.0		No					0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	19	73	56.0		28,348
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No														2	6	26	66	47.2		53
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No														0	5	14	80	68.1		692
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No								0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11	87	77.5		6,065
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No															11		89	88.9		9
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																3	97	86.9		99
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No														0	0	4	96	89.9		771	*
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		324	*

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	3,517,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Houston vs San Diego	-1.9+0.0+1.9

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Houston vs Tennessee	-1.9+0.0+1.9

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	100		0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	92	6	1							0			0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	84	12	4
14		14	-	2	-	0	77	16	4	2	1	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0			0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	67	19	7	4	1	0	0	0	0			0			0
13		13	-	3	-	0	56	22	10	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0									0
		12	-	2	-	2	53	21	18	5	3
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	43	26	13	8	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0
12		12	-	4	-	0	32	23	15	10	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	29	29	11	10	7	1	5	3	3	1				1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	21	20	16	12	9	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	14	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	12	15	14	14	10	8	7	4	3	3	3	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	7	11	11	11	10	9	8	7	6	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
		9	-	4	-	3				55	9			18	9								9
10		10	-	6	-	0	4	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	3	8	8	9	8	10	9	8	7	5	7	3	3	2	2	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	4	4	8	4	13	8		8	8	4	4			8	4	8	4		4			4
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	1	3	4	6	5	7	6	6	7	5	6	6	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3				5			9	5		9	9	14	5	5	5		9	5	5	9				5		5
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	5	6	5	5	6	5	2	4	3	2	2	2	1	0	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3									4					4		4	4	7	11	11	4	11		7	4	11		7	7	7
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2				0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	7	8	7	7	7	6	7	6	4	4	2	1	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3																5		5	11	5	5	5	11	5	5		16	5		5	5	11
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	4
		5	-	9	-	2							0	0	0	0		1	1	0	2	1	2	3	3	3	4	5	6	6	8	10	8	7	9	9	8	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1			0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	8
		4	-	9	-	3																										11		11	33	44
5		5	-	11	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2														0			1	0	2	1	2	2	3	4	4	7	7	9	19	14	14	10
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1			0							0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	9	12	16	20	21
4		4	-	12	-	0			0	0						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	7	10	15	23	32
		3	-	11	-	2																									1	1	6	8	13	16	24	32
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	7	14	25	43
3		3	-	13	-	0													0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	10	23	56
		2	-	12	-	2																												6	6	13	28	47
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																											0	1	4	7	19	68
2		2	-	14	-	0															0	0			0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	15	78
		1	-	13	-	2																														11		89
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																													1	1	11	87
1		1	-	15	-	0																												0	0	2	8	90
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3