Chicago Bears Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Chicago vs Cincinnati+7.2*-0.7-7.2
+1.4*-0.1-1.4
-1.4*-0.3+1.4
+0.9-0.0-0.9
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.5*+0.3-0.5
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay+0.4*-0.0-0.4
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Chicago vs Minnesota+8.1*-0.6-8.1
+1.4-0.5-1.4
-1.4-0.5+1.4
+1.0*-0.0-1.0
Arizona vs Detroit+0.5*+0.2-0.5
Green Bay vs Washington-0.5*-0.1+0.5
Buffalo vs Carolina+0.4*+0.4-0.4
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia+0.4*+0.5-0.4
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Denver vs NY Giants+0.4*+0.2-0.4
Kansas City vs Dallas+0.3*+0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inReg SeasonChance will finish regular season at seedCollege
TWW-L-TplayoffsChamp12345678910111213141516LevelCount
15.5-16In99.1%100No319*
1515-1-099.9%90.7100000No793
14.514-1-1In86.2100No94
1414-2-099.976.69811000No6,055
13-1-2InYes100No12
13.513-2-1In70.1971010No679*
1313-3-099.756.09160300000000No28,362
12-2-2In63.4100No41
12.512-3-199.645.28590410000No3,005*
1212-4-098.731.77019207210000000No91,609
11-3-299.335.571181811No141
11.511-4-197.520.5552630104110000No8,826*
1111-5-093.613.83431911263210000000No219,643
10-4-293.614.4343210112451101No389
10.510-5-188.57.51931152139532100000No19,282
9-4-385.77.11443777714No14*
1010-6-079.54.2822196141185321100000.0%403,677
9-5-279.84.08231951699432100No753
9.59-6-169.01.921219101412107542110000.032,322
8-5-353.3No772013727137No15
99-7-055.50.815141211121110864321000.0575,965
8-6-254.60.4051312121111108652210No1,137
8.58-7-141.60.20181381111111087532100.041,520
7-6-330.4No441391391322444No23
88-8-029.30.10041168101111109864210.1647,230
7-7-227.90.1131059111311101066320No1,349
7.57-8-118.60.001836891111111097410.341,910
6-7-34.5No5141491891814No22
77-9-011.00.0005245791112121210730.8576,177
6-8-210.2No05245791213121310620.61,114
6.56-9-15.6No031235710111314141161.832,345
5-8-34.5No55518591818145No22
66-10-02.90.0002012357912151616124.2402,627
5-9-21.9No2002347914141915114.1848
5.55-10-11.0No01001134710141921187.619,552
4-9-3OutNo1010204020No10
55-11-00.50.000000113471218252813.7219,267
4-10-21.0No10022371016292912.6388
4.54-11-10.1No000001135916273921.69,101*
44-12-00.1No000000113612265132.491,469
3-11-2OutNo13515245132.2149
3.53-12-1OutNo0000139256142.93,028*
33-13-00.0No00000000125207255.928,088
2-12-2OutNo449262.524
2.52-13-1OutNo0013168064.0672*
22-14-0OutNo000002108776.36,150*
1.51-14-1OutNo169386.488
11-15-0OutNo049590.4832*
0.50-15-1OutNo100Yes6
00-16-0OutNo19999.1328
Total:37.5%3.1%66666666666666663.1%3,517,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Cincinnati-1.9*+0.0+1.9
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Minnesota-1.9+0.0+1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-0991
15.515-0-1100
1515-1-091810000
14.514-1-1861031
1414-2-0771652100000000
13-1-2100
13.513-2-17019711100
1313-3-056231053110000000000000000
12-2-26317155
12.512-3-145241474221100000000
1212-4-032231510743211100000000000000
11-3-23529116641241
11.511-4-12020161297532211100000000
1111-5-0141514121086543221111000000000000000
10-4-2141416121285651211111000
10.510-5-171111111097755432211110000000000
9-4-37142114777147
1010-6-047899887765443322111100000000000
9-5-2488810997655444321111000000
9.59-6-124567778766654433221111000000000
8-5-37720137720777
99-7-012345566666665554433221111000000
8-6-20233366665767654544321111110
8.58-7-101123345566666665544433221110000
7-6-3444444994449994444
88-8-000112233444555666655544433221100
7-7-20001112334466766665654542221100
7.57-8-100001112233444556666665554432110
6-7-35555149551895145
77-9-000000011112233444556666666554321
6-8-20001212233334666677676644211
6.56-9-1000000111112233445667778776532
5-8-3559551459951895
66-10-000000000000111122234456778999874
5-9-200000001222335467689109964
5.55-10-100000000001111223445789101111118
55-11-00000000000000000111122345681012141614
4-10-201101120233567129181813
4.54-11-100000000011112346913162022
44-12-0000000000000000111234710152332
3-11-212136610152332
3.53-12-100000000012258152443
33-13-000000000000001135102356
2-12-2842563
2.52-13-1002372464
22-14-0000000001251676
1.51-14-113986
11-15-0001890
0.50-15-1100
00-16-01099
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333