Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Denver vs Baltimore	-7.6*+0.1+7.6		-1.4*-0.3+1.4		+1.4*-0.3-1.4		-0.9+0.0+0.9
Chicago vs Cincinnati	+0.9*-0.8-0.9						+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Miami vs Cleveland	+0.5*-0.1-0.5
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	+0.5*+0.2-0.5
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.4*-0.0+0.4

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Baltimore vs Cleveland	+8.1*+0.2-8.1		+1.4*+0.0-1.4		-1.4-0.5+1.4		+1.0+0.0-1.0
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.4*+0.5+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.4*-0.5+0.4						-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.4*-0.3+0.4
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.4*-0.6+0.4						-0.0*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Baltimore finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		98.8	%	100																No		341	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		92.2		100	0			0												No		790
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		89.4		100																No		94
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.9	%	76.9		98	1			1	0	0	0	0	0		0					No		5,999	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.5		67.6		95	2			2	0	0			0							No		661	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.8		55.9		91	6	0		2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				No		28,125
		12	-	2	-	2	In		57.4		85	11			4												No		47
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.5		45.2		85	9	0		4	1	0	0		0	0						No		2,943	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.6		32.1		69	19	2	0	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		91,583
		11	-	3	-	2	99.2		31.7		69	21	1		6	2					1						No		126
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	97.2		21.5		54	26	4	0	9	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				No		8,664
		10	-	3	-	3	87.5		25.0		50	38					13										No		8
11		11	-	5	-	0	93.7		13.9		34	31	9	1	12	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		219,584
		10	-	4	-	2	93.8		12.4		32	32	9	0	16	5	3	2	1								No		388
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	88.5		7.7		19	31	15	2	14	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		19,559
		9	-	4	-	3	90.0		10.0		30	10	30		20			10									No		10
10		10	-	6	-	0	79.6		4.2		8	22	20	6	14	11	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	No		403,605
		9	-	5	-	2	78.6		4.2		9	21	20	5	13	11	8	5	3	3	1	1		0			No		733	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	68.8		1.7		2	12	19	9	14	12	10	8	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	No		32,470
		8	-	5	-	3	82.4		5.9		6	29	12	24	6	6	12	6									No		17
9		9	-	7	-	0	55.5		0.8		1	5	14	12	11	12	11	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0.0	%	575,902
		8	-	6	-	2	54.1		0.4		1	5	14	12	11	12	11	11	8	6	5	2	2	1	0		No		1,208	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.9		0.3		0	1	8	13	9	11	11	11	10	8	7	5	3	2	1	0	0.0		41,234
		7	-	6	-	3	25.0		No				5	15	5		25	20	15	5	5		5				No		20
8		8	-	8	-	0	29.3		0.1		0	0	4	11	6	8	10	11	11	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.1		647,182
		7	-	7	-	2	27.6		0.2			0	4	10	6	7	10	12	11	10	9	8	6	4	2	0	0.1		1,346
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	18.1		0.0			0	1	8	3	6	8	10	11	11	11	11	9	6	4	2	0.3		41,598
		6	-	7	-	3	17.9		No					11	4	4	7	4	11	7	18	18	11	4	4		No		28
7		7	-	9	-	0	11.0		0.0			0	0	5	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	12	12	10	7	3	0.8		575,974
		6	-	8	-	2	10.7		No				0	5	2	4	5	7	10	12	12	13	12	9	7	3	0.8		1,183
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	5.3		No				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	9	11	13	14	14	11	6	1.9		32,682
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No									13	6	19	13	13	19	6	6	6	6.3		16
6		6	-	10	-	0	2.9		0.0				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	15	16	16	12	4.2		403,377
		5	-	9	-	2	1.7		No					2		0	1	3	4	6	10	14	16	18	16	10	3.2		814	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.1		No					1	0	0	1	1	3	5	7	10	14	19	21	18	7.4		19,626
		4	-	9	-	3	8.3		No					8						8		8	8	25	17	25	8.3		12
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.5		No				0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	12	18	25	28	13.9		219,483
		4	-	10	-	2	0.5		No					0		0		1	1	2	3	8	12	19	26	27	13.9		411
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	2	5	9	16	28	38	21.2		9,004
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No													17	33	17	17	17	No		6
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	13	26	51	32.2		91,047
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No												1	1	3	10	33	51	30.9		136
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.0		No					0			0			0	0	1	3	9	24	62	43.4		2,957	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.0		No					0			0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	19	72	55.8		28,560
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No														3	11	16	71	44.7		38
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No								0				0		1	2	12	85	69.9		690	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No								0		0		0	0	0	2	10	87	76.8		5,972	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																7	93	88.4		86
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No															1	3	96	90.5		790
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	99.1		343	*

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	3,517,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver vs Baltimore	+1.9*-0.0-1.9

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Baltimore vs Cleveland	-1.9-0.1+1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	99	1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	92	7	1	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	89	10	1
14		14	-	2	-	0	77	16	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					0	0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	68	19	8	3	1	0	0	0						0	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	56	23	10	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		12	-	2	-	2	57	19	13	2	2	2	2	2
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	45	24	13	7	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
12		12	-	4	-	0	32	23	15	10	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0		0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	32	21	20	6	8	4	2	2	2	2								1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	21	20	17	11	9	6	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	14	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	12	13	15	12	9	11	7	4	4	4	1	1	2	1	0	1	0		0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	11	12	11	10	9	8	6	6	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	10		30	20			20	10										10
10		10	-	6	-	0	4	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	7	8	9	8	8	8	8	7	4	5	6	4	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	5	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	6		12		18	6	6	12	6	6	12	12			6
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	0	1	2	4	4	6	6	6	6	7	6	7	6	5	6	5	3	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3		5				5		5			5	5	10	20	5	5		10	10	10				5
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2	0		1	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	5	4	6	6	6	6	6	7	6	5	3	3	4	4	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3								7		4			7		4			14	4	4	4	7	7	21	7	4		4		4
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2			0	0		0	1	0	2	1	2	2	2	4	3	4	4	5	6	5	7	7	6	7	6	7	6	4	3	3	1	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3																6		13		6		6	13	19	13	6		6	6			6
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	9	8	7	4
		5	-	9	-	2							0		0	0		0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	4	4	5	6	8	8	8	9	10	9	8	7	3
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1					0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	6	6	8	9	10	11	12	11	7
		4	-	9	-	3														8										8	25	8		8	25		8	8
5		5	-	11	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2												0				1	1	0	0	1	1	3	3	5	4	6	8	10	12	13	18	14
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1													0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	6	9	12	16	20	21
4		4	-	12	-	0			0	0	0			0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	7	10	15	23	32
		3	-	11	-	2																					1		1			3	4	6	7	19	28	31
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1														0			0		0	0		0	0	1	1	1	3	4	8	13	26	43
3		3	-	13	-	0									0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	11	23	56
		2	-	12	-	2																										3		3	11	13	26	45
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																			0							1	0	1	2	7	19	70
2		2	-	14	-	0														0			0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	16	77
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																														1	10	88
1		1	-	15	-	0																													0	1	8	91
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																																100
0		0	-	16	-	0																															1	99

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3