Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
New Orleans vs Atlanta	-8.1*-0.5+8.1		-1.4-0.5+1.4		+1.4-0.4-1.3		-1.0+0.0+1.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.9*-0.0-0.9						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Carolina	+0.5*+0.5-0.5						+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chicago vs Cincinnati	-0.4*+0.3+0.4						-0.1*-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta vs St. Louis	+7.6*+0.3-7.6		+1.4*-0.3-1.4		-1.4*-0.4+1.4		+0.9+0.1-0.9
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.9*+0.3-0.9						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.4*-0.1-0.4						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.4*-0.0-0.4						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.3*-0.2-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		335	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		90.7	%	100	0			0												No		828	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		89.5		100																No		105
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.9	%	76.9		98	1			1	0	0	0		0	0	0	0				No		6,000	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.9		65.1		97	2			1							0					No		693
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.8		55.7		91	5	0		3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					No		28,277
		12	-	2	-	2	In		60.6		88	9				3											No		33
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.7		43.1		86	9	0		4	1	0	0	0	0							No		2,936	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.7		32.2		70	19	2	0	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		91,755
		11	-	3	-	2	99.2		28.0		67	20	1		9	2	1										No		132
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	97.3		21.9		55	25	3	0	10	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0				No		8,917	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	93.7		13.7		34	31	9	1	12	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		219,894
		10	-	4	-	2	94.1		10.3		31	31	11	1	15	6	3	2	1	0							No		408
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	88.5		7.7		19	31	15	2	14	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0			No		19,447
		9	-	4	-	3	91.7		8.3		25	25	25			17	8										No		12
10		10	-	6	-	0	79.6		4.2		8	22	19	6	14	11	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	403,262
		9	-	5	-	2	82.2		2.4		6	22	19	6	16	13	8	5	2	2	1	0	0	0			No		760
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	68.9		1.7		2	12	19	9	14	12	10	8	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		32,466
		8	-	5	-	3	66.7		No			28	17		6	17	6	6	6		11	6					No		18
9		9	-	7	-	0	55.6		0.8		1	5	14	13	11	12	11	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0.0		576,748
		8	-	6	-	2	56.7		0.5		1	5	15	12	11	13	10	11	7	6	4	2	2	1	0	0	No		1,153
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	42.0		0.2		0	1	8	13	9	11	11	11	10	9	7	5	3	2	1	0	0.0		41,709
		7	-	6	-	3	41.2		No			3	6	9	6	18	12	21	12	3	3	3	3		3		No		34
8		8	-	8	-	0	29.3		0.1		0	0	4	11	6	8	10	11	11	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.1		647,031
		7	-	7	-	2	26.7		No			0	3	10	5	9	11	11	11	11	10	7	6	3	2	1	0.1		1,378	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	18.1		0.0			0	1	8	3	6	8	10	11	12	11	10	9	6	4	1	0.2		41,393
		6	-	7	-	3	16.1		No					3	3	10	6	6	6	10	13	10	19	10	3		No		31
7		7	-	9	-	0	11.0		0.0			0	0	5	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	12	12	10	7	3	0.8		575,445
		6	-	8	-	2	10.7		No				0	4	2	4	6	7	10	11	11	13	11	10	7	3	0.3		1,216
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	5.8		No				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	13	14	14	11	6	1.7		32,378
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No									16	5	5	32	21		11	11		No		19
6		6	-	10	-	0	2.9		0.0				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	15	16	16	12	4.2		402,722
		5	-	9	-	2	2.2		No					1	0	1	1	3	3	6	10	13	19	17	16	10	2.9		757	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.1		No					1	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	10	14	18	21	18	7.6		19,477
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No								7		7	7		21		14	29	14	7.1		14
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	8	12	18	25	28	13.7		219,407
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No								0		1	2	2	9	9	19	29	27	12.2		411
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	16	28	39	21.3		8,914	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	13	26	50	31.9		91,489
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No												4	2	7	13	27	47	31.9		119
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No								0	0		0	0	1	2	9	24	63	44.5		2,926
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.0		No					0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	19	72	55.7		28,353
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No														2	5	9	84	59.1		44
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No													0	1	6	15	79	64.5		670
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No								0	0		0	0	0	0	1	10	88	77.0		6,090
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	66.7		6
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No															1	5	94	87.5		96
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No													0		0	3	96	91.7		846
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																17	83	83.3		6
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																1	99	99.4		312

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	3,517,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
New Orleans vs Atlanta	+1.9+0.0-1.9

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Atlanta vs St. Louis	-1.9*-0.1+1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	91	8	1	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	90	8	3
14		14	-	2	-	0	77	16	4	2	1	0	0	0			0	0	0		0	0	0			0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	65	20	8	4	1	1	0		0					0				0
13		13	-	3	-	0	56	23	11	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	61	21	9	6	3
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	43	25	14	7	5	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	32	23	15	10	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					0		0
		11	-	3	-	2	28	25	14	8	8	8	5	2	2	1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	22	20	16	11	8	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	16	14	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	10	14	14	12	12	9	7	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0					0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	11	12	11	10	9	8	7	5	4	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	8	8	17	17	17			25		8
10		10	-	6	-	0	4	7	8	9	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	2	5	9	11	10	8	8	9	6	7	5	4	3	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0		0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3					22	11	6	11		17				6	6	6				6	6			6
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	2	2	6	5	6	7	5	7	7	5	7	6	5	5	5	4	3	4	2	2	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	2	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3		3			3		6	6	3	3	6	3	9	12	12		9	6	3	3	3	3	6					3
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2		0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	6	5	5	6	6	5	5	6	6	6	5	4	6	3	2	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3							6			3		10	3			6		3	3	6	6	10	6	13	3	3	10	3	3
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2			0	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	6	5	6	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	3	4	2	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3															5	5	5	5		5	16	11	5	11	5	5	11	5	5
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	4
		5	-	9	-	2						0			0	0	1	0	1	0	1	2	1	2	2	3	4	6	6	8	8	10	9	10	10	7	5	3
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1			0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	11	8
		4	-	9	-	3														7	7		7					7		7	7		7	7	21	14		7
5		5	-	11	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2															0		0	0	1		2	2	3	3	3	7	8	9	16	15	18	12
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1			0								0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	9	12	16	20	21
4		4	-	12	-	0			0							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	7	10	15	23	32
		3	-	11	-	2																						3		3	3	4	4	6	8	18	19	32
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	8	14	25	44
3		3	-	13	-	0													0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	10	23	56
		2	-	12	-	2																												2	5	5	30	59
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																					0		0	0		0	1	2	4	8	20	64
2		2	-	14	-	0																	0		0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	1	2	4	16	77
		1	-	13	-	2																															33	67
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																												1	1		10	88
1		1	-	15	-	0																			0										0	2	6	92
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																															17	83
0		0	-	16	-	0																														0	0	99

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3