How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Arizona 20 Pittsburgh 32 +9.2
+0.6
Oakland 0 Kansas City 28 +0.9
Tennessee 7 Houston 41 +0.6
NY Jets 27 San Diego 21 -0.6
Cleveland 6 Seattle 3 -0.2
Miami 15 Denver 18 -0.1
If winner is:HomeAway
Jacksonville vs Baltimore+1.4-0.4
+0.3-0.1
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Pittsburgh vs New England+11.5-13.7
+0.6-0.7
Buffalo vs Washington-1.6+2.9
-0.1+0.1
Seattle vs Cincinnati+2.7-1.8
+0.1-0.1
Baltimore vs Arizona-0.4+1.4
-0.1+0.3
San Francisco vs Cleveland+0.2-0.8
+0.0-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
149-0In97024,236
138-1In7111017031,733
127-2100.0%2523504420102,418
116-397.62991542320187,000
105-471.90021244424400209,585
94-521.10003184129810150,988
83-61.00011031331861069,741
72-7Out03163131163019,256
61-8Out06254323303,009
50-9Out22850173239
Total:64.8%7631272116105311000778,205
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/23100.0*Lottery seed
Arizona 20 Pittsburgh 32 -1.2
Tennessee 7 Houston 41 -0.1
Dallas 34 St. Louis 7 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeAway
Jacksonville vs Baltimore-0.5+0.1
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs New England-1.2+1.5
Baltimore vs Arizona+0.1-0.5
Seattle vs Cincinnati-0.2+0.1
Buffalo vs Washington+0.1-0.1
San Francisco vs Cleveland-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
149-0574002
138-1175410101700
127-21241013510395200
116-302185410282621220
105-400002104202618225100
94-500000331523271883100
83-6000116152222171042000
72-70014101923211362000
61-80028182626135100
50-91132227251020
Total:1624211014131381175432111000000000