New Orleans Saints Playoff Chances 2010 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 28.9%

10-3-0 .769

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Saints 31 Rams 13	+9.1		+0.6
Panthers 10 Falcons 31	-8.1		-0.3
Redskins 16 Bucs 17	-0.7		-0.1
Lions 7 Packers 3			+0.1
Bears 7 Patriots 36			+0.1
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Ravens vs Saints	-10.1-7.8-4.6+7.5+10.1		-0.5-0.4-0.2+0.4+0.5
Seahawks vs Falcons	+9.0+6.9-3.3-6.7-9.1		+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.3-0.4
Bucs vs Lions	-0.6-0.7-0.7+0.4+0.6		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Saints finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

13		3	-	0	-	0	93.6	%	94				6												124,815
12	.5	2	-	0	-	1	59.2		59				41												1,447
12		2	-	1	-	0	41.3		40	1	0		59												375,253
		1	-	0	-	2	75.0		75				25												4
11	.5	1	-	1	-	1	9.5		7	2	0		91												3,000
11		1	-	2	-	0	4.6		2	2	0		95	0	0										373,245
		0	-	1	-	2	Out						100												1
10	.5	0	-	2	-	1	Out						72	26	2	0									1,468
10		0	-	3	-	0	Out						50	39	10	1									125,357

Total:							28.9	%	28	1	0		65	5	1	0									1,004,590

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
Saints 31 Rams 13	-1.2
Panthers 10 Falcons 31	+0.5
Lions 7 Packers 3	-0.1
Jets 6 Dolphins 10	-0.1
Redskins 16 Bucs 17	+0.1
Steelers 23 Bengals 7	+0.1
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30	+0.0
Texans 28 Ravens 34 (ot)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ravens vs Saints	+1.2+1.1+0.2-1.0-1.2
Seahawks vs Falcons	-0.6-0.5+0.2+0.5+0.6
Bucs vs Lions	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1
Vikings vs Bears	-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.0
Steelers vs Jets	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Giants vs Eagles	+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

13		3	-	0	-	0	47	47							6
12	.5	2	-	0	-	1	27	32							41
12		2	-	1	-	0	4	36	1	0	0				57	2
		1	-	0	-	2		75							25
11	.5	1	-	1	-	1	0	7	1	1	0				77	13	0
11		1	-	2	-	0	0	2	1	2	0	0			51	40	4	0
		0	-	1	-	2										100
10	.5	0	-	2	-	1									16	45	31	8	0
10		0	-	3	-	0									0	22	44	25	7	1	0	0

Total:							7	20	1	1	0	0			42	18	7	3	1	0	0	0