Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances 2010 50/50

Beat Texans 34-28 (ot), playoff odds up 4.7 to 11%

9-4-0 .692

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Steelers 23 Bengals 7	-8.2		-0.3
Texans 28 Ravens 34 (ot)	+4.7		+0.5
Jets 6 Dolphins 10			+0.1
Chargers 31 Chiefs 0			-0.0
Jaguars 38 Raiders 31			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Steelers vs Jets	-7.9-7.9+6.7+7.5+7.9		-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ravens vs Saints	+7.8+7.6+7.8-7.8-7.8		+0.5+0.4+0.1-0.5-0.5

Chances based on how well the Ravens finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

12		3	-	0	-	0	50.1	%	6	44			50												124,544
11	.5	2	-	0	-	1	50.3		5	45			48	2											1,441
11		2	-	1	-	0	12.6		0	12	0		78	9											374,357
		1	-	0	-	2	16.7			17			50	33											6
10	.5	1	-	1	-	1	12.4			10	3	0	46	42											3,055
10		1	-	2	-	0	0.0			0	0		50	50	1										374,540
		0	-	1	-	2	Out							100											1
9	.5	0	-	2	-	1	Out						11	69	19	1									1,502
9		0	-	3	-	0	Out						9	57	27	6	1	0							125,144

Total:							11.0	%	1	10	0	0	55	29	4	1	0	0							1,004,590

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
Texans 28 Ravens 34 (ot)	-1.2
Steelers 23 Bengals 7	+0.5
Jets 6 Dolphins 10	-0.1
Lions 7 Packers 3	-0.1
Saints 31 Rams 13	+0.1
Redskins 16 Bucs 17	+0.1
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30	+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Vikings vs Giants	-0.1-0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ravens vs Saints	-1.3-1.3-0.1+1.3+1.3
Steelers vs Jets	+0.3+0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3
Giants vs Eagles	+0.0+0.0+0.2-0.0-0.0
Bucs vs Lions	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1
Patriots vs Packers	-0.1-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

12		3	-	0	-	0	1	5	40	4					45	5
11	.5	2	-	0	-	1	0	5	33	12					31	18	1
11		2	-	1	-	0		0	6	7	0	0			37	44	6	0
		1	-	0	-	2			17							83
10	.5	1	-	1	-	1			1	9	2	1	0		3	36	39	9	1
10		1	-	2	-	0			0	0	0	0			2	30	45	19	4	0	0
		0	-	1	-	2														100
9	.5	0	-	2	-	1										1	13	33	37	15	3	0
9		0	-	3	-	0										0	7	28	32	21	9	2	0	0

Total:							0	1	7	3	0	0	0		20	29	20	11	5	3	1	0	0	0