Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances 2010 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 71.1%

11-2-0 .846

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Saints 31 Rams 13	-9.0		-0.3
Panthers 10 Falcons 31	+8.2		+0.4
Redskins 16 Bucs 17	+0.6		+0.0
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Ravens vs Saints	+10.1+7.8+4.6-7.5-10.1		+0.4+0.3+0.2-0.3-0.4
Seahawks vs Falcons	-9.0-6.9+3.3+6.7+9.1		-0.4-0.3+0.2+0.3+0.4
Bucs vs Lions	+0.6+0.7+0.7-0.4-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Falcons finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

13.5	-14						In		100																126,561	*
13		2	-	1	-	0	93.8	%	94				6												374,474
		1	-	0	-	2	In		100																9
12	.5	1	-	1	-	1	91.2		91				9												2,932
12		1	-	2	-	0	58.6		51	7	1		41												374,031
		0	-	1	-	2	60.0		40	20			40												5
11	.5	0	-	2	-	1	42.4		31	10	1		58												1,510
11		0	-	3	-	0	11.2		4	5	2		86	2	0										125,068

Total:							71.1	%	67	3	1		29	0	0										1,004,590

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
Panthers 10 Falcons 31	-0.9
Saints 31 Rams 13	+0.6
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30	+0.1
Jets 6 Dolphins 10	-0.0
Texans 28 Ravens 34 (ot)	+0.0
Redskins 16 Bucs 17	-0.0
Steelers 23 Bengals 7	+0.0
Bears 7 Patriots 36	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seahawks vs Falcons	+0.9+0.7-0.4-0.7-0.9
Ravens vs Saints	-0.7-0.5-0.4+0.5+0.7
Patriots vs Packers	+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Bucs vs Lions	-0.0-0.0*-0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		3	-	0	-	0	88	12
13	.5	2	-	0	-	1	88	12
13		2	-	1	-	0	41	53							6
		1	-	0	-	2	33	67
12	.5	1	-	1	-	1	40	51							9
12		1	-	2	-	0	3	48	4	3	1				41	0
		0	-	1	-	2	20	20		20					40
11	.5	0	-	2	-	1	2	30	5	5	1				49	9	0
11		0	-	3	-	0		4	1	5	2	0			68	18	3	0	0

Total:							28	40	1	2	1	0			26	2	0	0	0