Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances 2010 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 61.5%

8-5-0 .615

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Chargers 31 Chiefs 0	-16.9		-1.0
Jaguars 38 Raiders 31	+5.4		+0.2
Steelers 23 Bengals 7			-0.1
Titans 28 Colts 30			-0.0
Bears 7 Patriots 36			-0.0
Jets 6 Dolphins 10			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Rams vs Chiefs	-16.8-17.3+17.5+16.6+16.8		-1.0-1.1+0.7+1.0+1.0
Chargers vs 49ers	-13.0-12.8+14.4+12.7+12.9		-0.5-0.5+0.6+0.5+0.5
Raiders vs Broncos	-3.6-3.8*+2.4+3.0+3.6		-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.2+0.2
Dolphins vs Bills			-0.1-0.1*-0.1+0.0+0.1
Titans vs Texans			-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Patriots vs Packers			-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Chiefs finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

11		3	-	0	-	0	In		0	12	88														124,848
10	.5	2	-	0	-	1	In			5	84	11													1,474
10		2	-	1	-	0	87.6	%		2	64	22	1	4	7	0									374,401
		1	-	0	-	2	88.9				78	11		11											9
9	.5	1	-	1	-	1	87.6				36	51	0	2	9	1	0								3,115
9		1	-	2	-	0	41.9				8	34		3	32	20	4	0							374,131
		0	-	1	-	2	55.6				11	44			33		11								9
8	.5	0	-	2	-	1	37.9				1	37			16	29	16	1							1,471
8		0	-	3	-	0	3.1					3			2	15	30	37	12	0					125,132

Total:							61.5	%	0	2	38	21	0	3	15	9	5	5	2	0					1,004,590

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chargers 31 Chiefs 0	+1.9
Jaguars 38 Raiders 31	-0.4
Steelers 23 Bengals 7	+0.1
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30	+0.0
Lions 7 Packers 3	-0.0
Titans 28 Colts 30	+0.0
Redskins 16 Bucs 17	+0.0
Jets 6 Dolphins 10	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Vikings vs Giants	+0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rams vs Chiefs	+2.0+2.1-1.5-2.0-2.0
Chargers vs 49ers	+1.0+1.0-1.1-1.0-1.0
Raiders vs Broncos	+0.3+0.4*-0.2-0.3-0.3
Bucs vs Lions	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1
Dolphins vs Bills	+0.1+0.1*+0.1-0.0-0.1
Titans vs Texans	+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Patriots vs Packers	-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Cowboys vs Redskins	+0.0-0.0*-0.1+0.0-0.0
Seahawks vs Falcons	+0.0+0.0*-0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

11		3	-	0	-	0		0	4	8	63	25
10	.5	2	-	0	-	1			1	5	50	34	11
10		2	-	1	-	0			0	2	12	51	22			0	1	4	5	2	0	0
		1	-	0	-	2					11	67	11					11
9	.5	1	-	1	-	1					2	35	51				0	2	4	4	2	0
9		1	-	2	-	0						8	28	6			0	1	7	18	20	10	2	0	0
		0	-	1	-	2						11	33	11						22		11	11
8	.5	0	-	2	-	1						1	28	9					0	5	18	24	13	1
8		0	-	3	-	0							1	2					0	0	4	14	27	32	16	4	1	0	0

Total:								0	0	2	13	26	19	2		0	0	2	4	7	8	6	4	4	2	1	0	0	0