SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Dallas Mavericks Playoff Chances 2040

Beat Bulls 94-91, Lost to Heat 90-112, Lost to 76ers 92-99, Beat Rockets 119-92, Lost to Timberwolves 95-98, playoff odds down 0.6 to 0.3%

27-43 .386

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Bulls 91 Mavericks 94	+0.9		+0.3
Mavericks 119 Rockets 92	+0.7		+0.3
Heat 112 Mavericks 90	-0.4		-0.2
Mavericks 92 76ers 99	-0.3		-0.1
Timberwolves 98 Mavericks 95	-0.3		-0.1
Spurs 95 Warriors 84	-0.2
Suns 94 Clippers 110	-0.2		-0.1
Rockets 114 Lakers 96	-0.1
Wizards 118 Spurs 108	+0.1
Rockets 110 Wizards 100	*-0.1
Pistons 114 Jazz 104	*+0.1
Trailblazers 107 Hawks 109	*+0.1		+0.0
Celtics 122 Spurs 86	*+0.1
Thunder 120 Magic 107			-0.1
Kings 113 Lakers 105			-0.1
Trailblazers 96 Suns 105			+0.0
Timberwolves 106 Kings 104			+0.0
Raptors 99 Trailblazers 82			+0.0
Warriors 111 Kings 110			+0.0

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Mavericks vs Grizzlies	+0.6-0.1		+0.5-0.1
Knicks vs Mavericks	-0.1+0.4		-0.1+0.4
Bucks vs Mavericks	-0.1+0.4		-0.1+0.4
Trailblazers vs Mavericks	-0.1+0.3		-0.3+0.6
Thunder vs Rockets	+0.1-0.1		-0.1+0.1
Spurs vs Celtics	-0.1+0.0
Rockets vs Raptors	-0.1+0.1
Heat vs Rockets	+0.1-0.1
Jazz vs Thunder			+0.1-0.1
Suns vs Trailblazers			+0.0-0.1
Thunder vs Nets			-0.1+0.1
Kings vs Pistons			-0.1+0.0
Clippers vs Kings			+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Mavericks finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

39		12	-	0	In								100									14
38		11	-	1	In								50	50								2
37		10	-	2	86.7	%							50	37	13							30
36		9	-	3	51.7								9	42	38	10	1					180
35		8	-	4	18.9								1	18	40	34	7					1,128
34		7	-	5	2.6								0	2	18	47	32	0				4,468
33		6	-	6	0.1									0	3	27	65	5	0			13,428
32		5	-	7	Out										0	8	65	25	2			28,268
31		4	-	8	Out											1	36	46	17	1		42,138
30		3	-	9	Out											0	7	34	51	8		44,192
29		2	-	10	Out												0	8	57	35		30,786
28		1	-	11	Out													1	31	68		12,821
27		0	-	12	Out														10	90		2,422

Total:					0.3	%							0	0	1	5	26	25	29	14		179,877

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bulls 91 Mavericks 94	-0.8
Mavericks 119 Rockets 92	-0.5
Heat 112 Mavericks 90	+0.5
Mavericks 92 76ers 99	+0.3
Timberwolves 98 Mavericks 95	+0.2
Celtics 104 Nets 116	+0.1
Raptors 84 Pacers 129	+0.1
Thunder 120 Magic 107	+0.1
Pacers 90 Wizards 75	+0.1
Kings 113 Lakers 105	+0.1
Suns 94 Clippers 110	+0.1
Heat 141 Bulls 127	+0.1
Pacers 89 Magic 111	-0.1
Bucks 106 Nets 78	-0.0
Heat 115 Hawks 117	-0.0
Pistons 122 Nets 83	-0.0
Trailblazers 96 Suns 105	-0.0
Trailblazers 107 Hawks 109	-0.0
Raptors 99 Trailblazers 82	-0.0
Timberwolves 106 Kings 104	-0.0

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Trailblazers vs Mavericks	+0.5-1.0
Bucks vs Mavericks	+0.3-0.8
Knicks vs Mavericks	+0.2-0.9
Mavericks vs Grizzlies	-1.0+0.1
Nets vs Hornets	+0.1-0.1
Heat vs Warriors	+0.1-0.1
Knicks vs Nets	-0.0+0.1
Nets vs Wizards	+0.1-0.1
Heat vs 76ers	+0.1-0.1
Bulls vs Nets	-0.1+0.1
Raptors vs Pacers	-0.0+0.1
Heat vs Rockets	+0.1-0.1
Rockets vs Heat	-0.1+0.1
Jazz vs Thunder	-0.1+0.1
76ers vs Heat	-0.0+0.1
Suns vs Trailblazers	-0.0+0.1
Thunder vs Rockets	+0.1-0.1
Pacers vs Cavaliers	+0.0-0.1
Kings vs Pistons	+0.1-0.0
Cavaliers vs Pacers	-0.0+0.1
Cavaliers vs Pacers	-0.0+0.1
Clippers vs Kings	-0.0+0.1

What If

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29

39		12	-	0														100
38		11	-	1														50		50
37		10	-	2														50		37			13
36		9	-	3														9		42		1	19	21	7	1
35		8	-	4														1		18			7	29	34	10	1
34		7	-	5														0		2			1	9	30	40	17	1
33		6	-	6																0			0	0	6	30	48	13	1	0
32		5	-	7																					0	6	37	38	16	2	0	0
31		4	-	8																					0	0	10	26	33	23	7	1	0
30		3	-	9																						0	1	4	14	31	35	14	1
29		2	-	10																								0	1	6	29	46	18
28		1	-	11																										0	5	39	56
27		0	-	12																											0	12	87

Total:																		0		0		0	0	0	1	4	12	14	14	15	15	14	9