"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats" (thank you Mr. Dater) |
Memphis Title Chances Fall2018
Beat Mississippi 2-0, title odds up 0.1 to 32%
9 points 3-0-0
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/22 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Mississippi 0 Memphis 2 | +8.8 | +0.4 | ||
| Vestavia 0 Tennessee 4 | -3.9 | -0.1 | ||
| Huntsville 4 Louisiana 0 | -3.4 | -0.1 | ||
| Hattiesburg 0 Houston 1 | +0.6 | +0.1 | ||
| Destin 0 Mandeville 3 | -0.2 | |||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||
| Memphis vs Hattiesburg | +8.2-8.1-14.4 | +0.3-0.2-0.6 | ||
| Louisiana vs Tennessee | +7.1+4.2-3.3 | +0.2+0.1-0.1 | ||
| Mandeville vs Huntsville | +4.4+3.3-4.3 | +0.0+0.1-0.1 | ||
| Houston vs Mississippi | -0.1*+0.0+0.1 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Memphis finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance | Chance will finish season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | wins title | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Count | |||
| 27 | 6 | - | 0 | - | 0 | Yes | 100 | 396,835 | ||||||||||||
| 25 | 5 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 99.2 | % | 99 | 1 | 1,522,580 | ||||||||||
| 24 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 87.7 | 88 | 12 | 0 | 1,230,718 | ||||||||||
| 23 | 4 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 89.3 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 2,463,509 | ||||||||||
| 22 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 63.3 | 63 | 35 | 2 | 3,897,991 | ||||||||||
| 21 | 3 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 60.7 | 61 | 37 | 2 | 2,108,538 | ||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 32.5 | 32 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 1,480,662 | ||||||||||
| 20 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 28.0 | 28 | 57 | 15 | 0 | 4,897,665 | |||||||||
| 19 | 3 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 8.8 | 9 | 49 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 3,632,806 | ||||||||
| 2 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 20.9 | 21 | 56 | 23 | 0 | 1,001,964 | ||||||||||
| 18 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 5.1 | 5 | 42 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 3,043,398 | ||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | - | 3 | 1.6 | 2 | 26 | 61 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 854,906 | ||||||||
| 17 | 2 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 0.7 | 1 | 19 | 63 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3,313,164 | |||||||
| 1 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 1.9 | 2 | 26 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 251,255 | |||||||||
| 16 | 2 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | 50 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1,525,127 | ||||||
| 1 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 10 | 58 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 937,835 | ||||||||
| 15 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1,329,385 | ||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | - | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 54 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 248,702 | |||||||
| 0 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 45 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 26,410 | ||||||||
| 14 | 1 | - | 2 | - | 3 | No | 0 | 15 | 51 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 899,673 | |||||||
| 0 | - | 5 | - | 1 | No | 0 | 19 | 53 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 114,133 | ||||||||
| 13 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 4 | No | 0 | 3 | 30 | 46 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 288,597 | ||||||
| 0 | - | 4 | - | 2 | No | 0 | 6 | 37 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 198,606 | |||||||
| 12 | 0 | - | 3 | - | 3 | No | 1 | 17 | 44 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 176,076 | |||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | - | 5 | No | 0 | 10 | 39 | 40 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 35,197 | |||||||
| 11 | 0 | - | 2 | - | 4 | No | 0 | 3 | 24 | 46 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 82,869 | ||||||
| 10 | 0 | - | 1 | - | 5 | No | 0 | 5 | 33 | 47 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 19,669 | ||||||
| 9 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 6 | No | 0 | 10 | 44 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 10,750 | |||||||
| Total: | 32.0 | % | 32 | 30 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35,989,020 | |||||||
Points
Chance Will Win Championship
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 1:11 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
