Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances 2012

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.08 to 0.5%

24 points 7-3-13

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/25	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Impact 3 DC United 1	+0.1
Dynamo 2 Toronto FC 0			-0.4		+0.0
Crew 1 New England 1			+0.1		+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Union vs Crew	+0.3-0.3-0.4		-2.5+1.0+4.0		+0.2-0.1-0.3
DC United vs Red Bulls	-0.2+0.1+0.2
Timbers vs Whitecaps			+1.4-0.5-1.4
Timbers vs Rapids			+1.3-0.3-1.2
Earthquakes vs Rapids			-0.1+0.1+0.2
Chivas USA vs Sounders			+0.2*+0.0-0.1
New England vs Chivas USA					-0.1+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs Union	-0.3-0.1+0.8		+1.8-0.9-3.4		-0.2+0.1+0.5
Real Salt Lake vs DC United	+0.1-0.0-0.2
Crew vs Impact	+0.0+0.0-0.1
Rapids vs Timbers			-0.6+0.2+1.7
Sporting KC vs Toronto FC			-0.4+0.3+1.6		+0.0-0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs Chivas USA			-0.1*+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Union finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP	W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon		Count

57	11	-	0	-	0	In		0.4	%	9	50	37	4							No		270
55	10	-	1	-	0	In		No			4	50	35	12						No		26
54	10	-	0	-	1	96.4	%	No			5	27	45	20	4					No		56
53	9	-	2	-	0	95.6		No				14	44	37	4					No		91
52	9	-	1	-	1	87.4		No			0	5	36	46	12	0				No		491
51	9	-	0	-	2	75.3		No				1	17	57	24	1				No		776	*
50	8	-	2	-	1	56.2		No				0	8	48	40	4	0			No		1,858
49	8	-	1	-	2	37.9		No				0	2	35	50	12	0			No		4,269	*
48	7	-	3	-	1	23.1		No					1	22	54	22	1			No		6,623	*
47	7	-	2	-	2	12.0		No					0	12	51	34	2			No		12,983	*
46	7	-	1	-	3	5.5		No					0	5	39	47	8			No		22,488	*
45	6	-	3	-	2	1.9		No					0	2	27	56	15	0		No		32,870	*
44	6	-	2	-	3	0.5		No						1	15	56	28	0		No		52,679	*
43	6	-	1	-	4	0.1		No						0	6	48	46	1		No		43,604
	5	-	4	-	2	0.1		No						0	8	53	39	0		No		30,511	*
42	5	-	3	-	3	0.0		No						0	2	39	57	2		No		74,721
	6	-	0	-	5	0.0		No						0	2	36	60	2		No		20,425	*
41	5	-	2	-	4	Out		No							1	25	70	5	0	No		104,267
	4	-	5	-	2	Out		No							1	29	67	3		No		24,330	*
40	5	-	1	-	5	Out		No							0	13	75	12	0	No		75,617
	4	-	4	-	3	Out		No							0	17	75	8	0	No		76,261	*
39	4	-	3	-	4	Out		No							0	8	74	18	0	No		135,794
	5	-	0	-	6	Out		No								5	71	23	0	No		23,056
	3	-	6	-	2	Out		No								10	77	13	0	No		12,865	*
38	4	-	2	-	5	Out		No								3	66	31	1	0.0	%	147,597
	3	-	5	-	3	Out		No								4	71	25	0	0.0		46,706	*
37	3	-	4	-	4	Out		No								1	58	39	2	0.0		104,073
	4	-	1	-	6	Out		No								1	52	45	3	0.0		91,481	*
36	3	-	3	-	5	Out		No								0	42	53	5	0.1		148,092
	4	-	0	-	7	Out		No								0	36	57	7	0.2		22,028
	2	-	6	-	3	Out		No								0	49	47	3	0.1		18,057	*
35	3	-	2	-	6	Out		No								0	27	62	12	0.7		130,672
	2	-	5	-	4	Out		No								0	33	59	9	0.5		48,027	*
34	2	-	4	-	5	Out		No								0	19	64	17	2.1		82,947
	3	-	1	-	7	Out		No								0	15	63	21	2.9		68,734	*
33	2	-	3	-	6	Out		No									9	61	30	6.4		95,712
	3	-	0	-	8	Out		No									6	57	37	7.8		13,997
	1	-	6	-	4	Out		No									12	62	26	5.0		11,816	*
32	2	-	2	-	7	Out		No									4	50	46	14.8		69,750
	1	-	5	-	5	Out		No									5	55	40	12.3		24,348	*
31	1	-	4	-	6	Out		No									2	42	57	24.3		34,339
	2	-	1	-	8	Out		No									1	37	62	27.6		31,199	*
30	1	-	3	-	7	Out		No									0	28	71	39.5		33,459
	2	-	0	-	9	Out		No									0	27	73	41.0		8,353	*
29	1	-	2	-	8	Out		No									0	16	84	55.3		25,436	*
28	1	-	1	-	9	Out		No									0	9	91	69.7		13,455	*
27	0	-	3	-	8	Out		No										4	96	80.6		5,934	*
26	0	-	2	-	9	Out		No										1	99	89.2		2,655
25	0	-	1	-	10	Out		No										0	100	96.0		826
24	0	-	0	-	11	Out		No											100	98.4		383

Total:						0.5	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	2	11	42	33	13	4.5	%	2,037,007

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/25	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dynamo 2 Toronto FC 0	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Union vs Crew	-0.5+0.3+0.8
Chivas USA vs Sounders	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs Rapids	-0.1+0.0+0.2
Galaxy vs FC Dallas	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Timbers vs Rapids	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Timbers vs Whitecaps	+0.1-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Union	+0.5-0.1-1.0
Earthquakes vs Chivas USA	-0.0+0.0+0.2
FC Dallas vs Sounders	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Toronto FC	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Timbers	+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19

57	11	-	0	-	0	0	9	19	31	34	3	4
55	10	-	1	-	0				4	35	15	31	4	12
54	10	-	0	-	1				5	16	11	41	4	20		4
53	9	-	2	-	0					7	8	40	4	37		4
52	9	-	1	-	1				0	1	5	25	11	45	1	12	0
51	9	-	0	-	2						1	9	8	55	2	24	1
50	8	-	2	-	1						0	3	5	45	3	40	4	0
49	8	-	1	-	2						0	1	2	29	7	50	12	0
48	7	-	3	-	1							0	1	15	7	54	22	1	0
47	7	-	2	-	2							0	0	6	6	50	34	3	0
46	7	-	1	-	3								0	2	3	37	47	10	0	0
45	6	-	3	-	2								0	0	1	24	52	20	2	0
44	6	-	2	-	3									0	0	12	47	34	7	0	0
43	6	-	1	-	4									0	0	4	31	45	18	2	0
	5	-	4	-	2									0	0	5	36	42	15	2	0
42	5	-	3	-	3										0	1	19	44	30	6	0	0
	6	-	0	-	5										0	1	17	43	32	7	0	0
41	5	-	2	-	4											0	7	34	42	15	2	0
	4	-	5	-	2											0	9	36	40	13	1	0
40	5	-	1	-	5											0	2	19	44	29	6	0	0
	4	-	4	-	3											0	3	22	44	26	5	0	0
39	4	-	3	-	4											0	1	9	36	39	13	1	0
	5	-	0	-	6												0	7	34	41	16	2	0
	3	-	6	-	2												1	11	39	37	11	1	0
38	4	-	2	-	5												0	3	22	42	27	6	0	0
	3	-	5	-	3												0	4	25	43	24	4	0	0
37	3	-	4	-	4												0	1	12	37	37	12	1	0
	4	-	1	-	6												0	1	10	35	39	15	1	0
36	3	-	3	-	5													0	4	24	43	25	4	0
	4	-	0	-	7													0	3	21	43	28	5	0
	2	-	6	-	3													0	6	28	43	21	3	0
35	3	-	2	-	6													0	1	11	37	40	10	1
	2	-	5	-	4													0	1	14	40	36	8	1
34	2	-	4	-	5														0	5	28	46	18	2
	3	-	1	-	7													0	0	4	24	47	22	3
33	2	-	3	-	6														0	1	14	46	32	6
	3	-	0	-	8														0	1	12	42	37	8
	1	-	6	-	4														0	2	17	47	29	5
32	2	-	2	-	7														0	0	6	35	44	15
	1	-	5	-	5															0	7	39	41	12
31	1	-	4	-	6															0	2	25	48	24
	2	-	1	-	8															0	2	22	49	28
30	1	-	3	-	7															0	0	13	47	39
	2	-	0	-	9																0	12	46	41
29	1	-	2	-	8																0	6	39	55
28	1	-	1	-	9																0	2	28	70
27	0	-	3	-	8																	1	19	81
26	0	-	2	-	9																	0	11	89
25	0	-	1	-	10																		4	96
24	0	-	0	-	11																		2	98

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	10	15	18	18	17	10	4