Portland Timbers Playoff Chances 2012

Plays Whitecaps 10:30 PM, playoff odds unchanged at 0.08%

21 points 5-6-13

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Timbers finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters	Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon		Count

51		10	-	0	-	0	In		No		4	36	48	11						No		266
49		9	-	1	-	0	In		No			13	47	40						No		15
48		9	-	0	-	1	93.3	%	No				20	73	7					No		15
47		8	-	2	-	0	85.4		No				10	76	12	2				No		41
46		8	-	1	-	1	61.1		No				6	55	35	4				No		167
45		8	-	0	-	2	53.5		No				3	50	41	6				No		327	*
44		7	-	2	-	1	30.0		No				1	29	53	17				No		821
43		7	-	1	-	2	13.2		No				0	13	59	26	2	0		No		2,106	*
42		6	-	3	-	1	5.9		No					6	51	38	5			No		2,111
		7	-	0	-	3	4.4		No					4	49	41	6	0		No		1,327
41		6	-	2	-	2	2.0		No					2	36	51	11	0		No		7,181
		5	-	5	-	0	3.9		No					4	37	52	7			No		307
40		6	-	1	-	3	0.3		No					0	20	55	23	2		No		10,358
		5	-	4	-	1	0.6		No					1	22	56	19	1		No		3,564
39		5	-	3	-	2	0.0		No					0	11	50	34	4		No		15,584
		6	-	0	-	4	0.0		No					0	9	49	36	6		0.0	%	5,571
		4	-	6	-	0	Out		No						13	52	30	4		No		312
38		5	-	2	-	3	0.0		No					0	4	38	46	11		0.0		33,941
		4	-	5	-	1	Out		No						5	42	44	9		No		3,827
37		5	-	1	-	4	Out		No						1	24	52	22		0.2		36,574
		4	-	4	-	2	Out		No						2	27	52	19		0.2		21,282	*
36		4	-	3	-	3	Out		No						0	15	51	33		0.8		60,187
		5	-	0	-	5	Out		No						0	13	49	38		0.9		15,742
		3	-	6	-	1	Out		No						1	18	51	30		0.6		2,714
35		4	-	2	-	4	Out		No						0	7	43	51		3.0		95,779
		3	-	5	-	2	Out		No						0	8	45	47		2.4		17,760	*
34		4	-	1	-	5	Out		No							2	31	67		8.3		81,985
		3	-	4	-	3	Out		No						0	3	34	63		7.1		62,083
		2	-	7	-	1	Out		No							4	36	60		5.4		1,255
33		3	-	3	-	4	Out		No						0	1	22	77		16.1		130,756
		4	-	0	-	6	Out		No							1	19	80		18.2		28,740
		2	-	6	-	2	Out		No							1	25	74		14.5		9,124	*
32		3	-	2	-	5	Out		No							0	12	88		29.2		163,869
		2	-	5	-	3	Out		No							0	14	86		26.9		37,407
		1	-	8	-	1	Out		No							1	15	84		27.5		298
31		3	-	1	-	6	Out		No							0	6	94		44.9		113,689
		2	-	4	-	4	Out		No							0	7	93		42.6		97,349
		1	-	7	-	2	Out		No								8	92		41.3		2,496
30		2	-	3	-	5	Out		No							0	3	97		58.2		160,985
		3	-	0	-	7	Out		No							0	2	98		61.2		34,085
		1	-	6	-	3	Out		No								3	97		56.6		12,268	*
29		2	-	2	-	6	Out		No								1	99		72.5		166,883	*
		1	-	5	-	4	Out		No							0	1	99		70.8		37,710
28		2	-	1	-	7	Out		No								0	100		83.4		97,266
		1	-	4	-	5	Out		No								0	100		81.6		77,433
		0	-	7	-	3	Out		No								0	100		82.2		1,649
27		1	-	3	-	6	Out		No								0	100		90.0		105,091
		2	-	0	-	8	Out		No								0	100		91.2		24,983
		0	-	6	-	4	Out		No								0	100		88.7		5,948
21	-26						Out		No									100		97.2		245,776	*

Total:							0.1	%	No		0	0	0	0	1	4	14	82		47.7	%	2,037,007

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19

51		10	-	0	-	0				4		36	8	40	9	2
49		9	-	1	-	0						13		47	20	20
48		9	-	0	-	1								20	27	47	7
47		8	-	2	-	0								10	5	71	5	10
46		8	-	1	-	1								6	3	52	13	19	7
45		8	-	0	-	2								3		50	7	23	13	3
44		7	-	2	-	1								1	0	29	6	28	28	7	1
43		7	-	1	-	2								0		13	2	26	41	17	2	0
42		6	-	3	-	1										5	1	13	43	31	7	1	0
41		6	-	2	-	2										2	0	5	31	41	17	3	0	0
40		6	-	1	-	3										0		1	16	41	32	9	1	0
		5	-	4	-	1										1		2	19	42	29	7	1
39		5	-	3	-	2										0		0	7	31	39	19	3	0
		6	-	0	-	4										0		0	6	28	39	21	5	0	0
38		5	-	2	-	3										0		0	2	17	37	32	11	1	0
		4	-	5	-	1												0	2	19	39	30	9	1
37		5	-	1	-	4													0	6	26	39	23	5	0
		4	-	4	-	2												0	0	8	29	38	20	4	0
36		4	-	3	-	3												0	0	2	15	36	34	11	1
		5	-	0	-	5													0	2	13	35	36	14	1
		3	-	6	-	1													0	3	17	37	32	10	1
35		4	-	2	-	4													0	0	6	25	41	24	3
		3	-	5	-	2														1	7	27	41	22	2
34		4	-	1	-	5														0	1	13	38	39	8
		3	-	4	-	3														0	2	15	40	36	7
33		3	-	3	-	4														0	0	6	29	48	16
		4	-	0	-	6															0	5	28	49	18
		2	-	6	-	2														0	1	7	31	47	14
32		3	-	2	-	5															0	2	17	52	29
		2	-	5	-	3															0	2	19	52	27
31		3	-	1	-	6															0	0	8	47	45
		2	-	4	-	4															0	0	9	48	43
30		2	-	3	-	5																0	3	38	58
		3	-	0	-	7																0	3	36	61
		1	-	6	-	3																0	4	40	57
29		2	-	2	-	6																0	1	26	72
		1	-	5	-	4																0	1	28	71
28		2	-	1	-	7																0	0	16	83
		1	-	4	-	5																	0	18	82
27		1	-	3	-	6																	0	10	90
		2	-	0	-	8																	0	9	91
		0	-	6	-	4																	0	11	89
26		1	-	2	-	7																	0	5	95
		0	-	5	-	5																	0	5	95
25		1	-	1	-	8																		2	98
		0	-	4	-	6																	0	2	98
24		0	-	3	-	7																		1	99
		1	-	0	-	9																		1	99
23		0	-	2	-	8																		0	100
21	-22																								100

Total:										0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	13	28	48