Columbus Crew Playoff Chances 2012

Tied New England 1-1, playoff odds down 2.2 to 11.6%

31 points 8-7-9

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/25	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Crew 1 New England 1	-3.9						-0.1
Impact 3 DC United 1	+2.1						-0.1
Dynamo 2 Toronto FC 0	-0.5
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Union vs Crew	-4.1-0.5+8.8		No-0.0+0.0				-0.2+0.0+0.4
DC United vs Red Bulls	-2.7+1.6+4.1						-0.0+0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Crew vs Impact	+5.3-3.8-7.9		+0.0NoNo		-0.0*-0.0+0.1		+0.3-0.2-0.5
Real Salt Lake vs DC United	+1.9-0.5-4.3						+0.0-0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake	-0.2*+0.1+0.4
Fire vs Dynamo	-0.1*-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP	W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon		Count

61	10	-	0	-	0	In		16.0	%	58	38	4								No		307
59	9	-	1	-	0	In		0.3		16	50	30	4							No		310
58	9	-	0	-	1	In		No		5	38	40	16	1						No		566
57	8	-	2	-	0	In		0.1		1	24	48	23	4						No		1,100
56	8	-	1	-	1	99.8	%	No		0	9	38	40	13	0					No		4,024
55	8	-	0	-	2	98.7		No		0	3	22	46	27	1					No		5,783	*
54	7	-	2	-	1	96.2		No		0	1	12	42	42	4	0				No		12,044
53	7	-	1	-	2	88.0		No			0	4	29	55	12	0				No		24,261	*
52	6	-	3	-	1	79.9		No			0	1	18	60	20	0				No		20,964
	7	-	0	-	3	73.1		No			0	1	14	58	26	1				No		12,232
51	6	-	2	-	2	63.4		No			0	0	8	55	35	2				No		56,409	*
50	6	-	1	-	3	44.4		No				0	2	42	51	5	0			No		61,237
	5	-	4	-	1	51.3		No				0	4	48	45	3	0			No		22,271
49	5	-	3	-	2	33.2		No				0	1	32	57	10	0			No		76,388
	6	-	0	-	4	27.4		No					1	27	60	12	0			No		27,282	*
48	5	-	2	-	3	18.5		No					0	18	61	21	0			No		127,446
	4	-	5	-	1	23.7		No					0	24	59	17	0			No		15,999
47	5	-	1	-	4	8.8		No					0	9	57	34	0			No		104,220
	4	-	4	-	2	11.6		No					0	12	57	31	0			No		66,334	*
46	4	-	3	-	3	4.7		No					0	5	46	49	1			No		143,724
	5	-	0	-	5	3.4		No					0	3	43	52	1			No		33,738
	3	-	6	-	1	6.9		No					0	7	48	45	0			No		7,262
45	4	-	2	-	4	1.6		No						2	32	63	3	0		No		172,348
	3	-	5	-	2	2.4		No						2	35	61	2			No		35,795	*
44	4	-	1	-	5	0.4		No						0	19	73	7	0		No		108,566
	3	-	4	-	3	0.6		No						1	21	73	5	0		No		97,035	*
43	3	-	3	-	4	0.1		No						0	10	78	12	0		No		148,397
	4	-	0	-	6	0.0		No						0	9	75	16	0		No		27,890
	2	-	6	-	2	0.2		No						0	11	79	9	0		No		11,916	*
42	3	-	2	-	5	0.0		No						0	4	72	23	1	0	No		136,577
	2	-	5	-	3	0.0		No						0	4	77	18	0		No		37,258	*
41	2	-	4	-	4	Out		No							1	66	31	2	0	No		72,399	*
	3	-	1	-	6	0.0		No						0	1	59	38	3	0	No		67,783
40	2	-	3	-	5	Out		No							0	49	45	5	0	No		84,043
	3	-	0	-	7	Out		No							0	41	51	8	0	No		13,859
	1	-	6	-	3	Out		No							0	57	40	3	0	No		7,710	*
39	2	-	2	-	6	Out		No							0	32	55	13	0	No		61,426
	1	-	5	-	4	Out		No							0	39	51	9	0	No		17,606	*
38	1	-	4	-	5	Out		No								22	57	21	1	0.0	%	25,466
	2	-	1	-	7	Out		No								17	56	26	1	No		25,726	*
37	1	-	3	-	6	Out		No								10	51	36	3	0.1		24,157
	2	-	0	-	8	Out		No								9	48	39	3	0.0		5,904	*
36	1	-	2	-	7	Out		No								3	37	51	9	0.3		14,285
	0	-	5	-	5	Out		No								6	42	45	7	0.2		3,022
35	1	-	1	-	8	Out		No								1	22	58	19	1.5		4,862
	0	-	4	-	6	Out		No								1	28	56	14	1.4		3,522
34	0	-	3	-	7	Out		No								0	12	57	30	4.9		3,411	*
33	0	-	2	-	8	Out		No								0	5	48	47	12.5		1,380
32	0	-	1	-	9	Out		No									2	28	69	28.2		436
31	0	-	0	-	10	Out		No										17	83	42.8		327

Total:						11.6	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	10	26	45	14	3	0	0.0	%	2,037,007

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/25	100.0*	Lottery seed
Crew 1 New England 1	+0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Union vs Crew	+0.4-0.1-0.8
DC United vs Red Bulls	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Galaxy vs FC Dallas	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Rapids	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Chivas USA vs Sounders	+0.1-0.0-0.0
Timbers vs Rapids	-0.0-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Crew vs Impact	-0.5+0.3+0.8
FC Dallas vs Sounders	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs DC United	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Chivas USA	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Timbers	+0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19

61	10	-	0	-	0	16	42	35	3	4
59	9	-	1	-	0	0	16	34	16	29	1	4
58	9	-	0	-	1		5	15	23	37	3	16		1
57	8	-	2	-	0	0	1	8	16	41	7	23		4
56	8	-	1	-	1		0	2	7	27	11	39	0	13	0	0
55	8	-	0	-	2		0	0	3	12	10	44	1	27		1
54	7	-	2	-	1		0	0	1	4	7	38	4	42	0	4	0
53	7	-	1	-	2				0	1	3	23	5	55	0	12	0
52	6	-	3	-	1				0	0	1	13	6	59	1	20	0
	7	-	0	-	3				0	0	1	10	5	57	1	26	1
51	6	-	2	-	2				0	0	0	4	4	52	3	35	2
50	6	-	1	-	3					0	0	1	2	37	5	51	5	0
	5	-	4	-	1					0	0	1	2	42	5	45	3	0
49	5	-	3	-	2						0	0	1	25	7	57	10	0
	6	-	0	-	4							0	0	21	6	60	12	0
48	5	-	2	-	3							0	0	12	7	60	21	0	0
	4	-	5	-	1							0	0	16	8	59	17	0	0
47	5	-	1	-	4							0	0	4	5	56	34	1	0
	4	-	4	-	2							0	0	6	6	56	32	1	0
46	4	-	3	-	3								0	2	3	43	49	4	0
	5	-	0	-	5								0	1	2	40	51	5	0
	3	-	6	-	1								0	2	4	45	45	3	0
45	4	-	2	-	4									0	1	27	59	12	1	0
	3	-	5	-	2									0	2	30	57	10	1
44	4	-	1	-	5									0	0	14	58	24	3	0	0
	3	-	4	-	3									0	1	16	59	22	2	0	0
43	3	-	3	-	4									0	0	6	49	36	8	1	0
	4	-	0	-	6										0	5	46	38	10	1	0
	2	-	6	-	2										0	7	52	34	7	0	0
42	3	-	2	-	5										0	1	30	44	20	3	0	0
	2	-	5	-	3										0	2	34	45	17	2	0	0
41	2	-	4	-	4											0	17	43	30	8	1	0
	3	-	1	-	6										0	0	15	40	33	11	1	0
40	2	-	3	-	5											0	6	30	39	20	4	0	0
	3	-	0	-	7											0	5	25	40	24	6	0	0
	1	-	6	-	3											0	9	34	38	17	3	0
39	2	-	2	-	6												2	14	36	34	13	2	0
	1	-	5	-	4												2	18	39	31	10	1	0
38	1	-	4	-	5												0	6	25	39	23	5	0	0
	2	-	1	-	7												0	5	22	39	27	7	0
37	1	-	3	-	6												0	2	12	34	37	14	2	0
	2	-	0	-	8												0	1	11	31	38	17	2	0
36	1	-	2	-	7													0	3	19	40	31	7	0
	0	-	5	-	5													0	5	23	41	26	5	0
35	1	-	1	-	8													0	1	7	29	45	16	1
	0	-	4	-	6													0	1	9	34	41	13	1
34	0	-	3	-	7														0	2	17	46	29	5
33	0	-	2	-	8															0	6	38	42	13
32	0	-	1	-	9																2	19	51	28
31	0	-	0	-	10																	8	49	43

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8	2	24	30	16	9	5	2	1	0	0