Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Tennessee Titans Playoff Chances 2013

Plays Pittsburgh, playoff odds up 0.1 to 38%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	+5.4*-0.6-5.4		+1.0*-0.5-1.0		-0.9*-0.5+0.9		+0.7*-0.0-0.7
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+0.4*-0.0-0.4
Houston vs San Diego	-0.4*+0.2+0.4						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Indianapolis vs Oakland	-0.3*-0.3+0.3
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*+0.5+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Houston vs Tennessee	-5.8*-0.4+5.8		-1.0*-0.4+1.0		+0.9*-0.4-0.9		-0.7*+0.0+0.7
Miami vs Indianapolis	+0.3*+0.3-0.3
Oakland vs Jacksonville	+0.3*-0.0-0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.3*-0.5+0.3
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+1.2+0.3						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.3*-0.1+0.2						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.2*-0.7+0.2						-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tennessee finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		92.0	%	100																No		174	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	98.5	%	46.6		94				4	1	1	0		0							No		464
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	95.1		36.6		80				12	2	2			2							No		41
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.5		39.0		87	1			6	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0				No		3,270	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	95.6		35.6		82	2			8	4	2	1	1	1							No		362
13		13	-	3	-	0	91.7		27.1		73	4	0	0	9	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		15,451
		12	-	2	-	2	96.2		19.2		85				8	4	4										No		26
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	90.2		20.1		66	7	0		12	5	3	3	2	0	1	0	0	0	0		No		1,618
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.4		17.6		54	12	1	0	10	7	5	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	48,971
		11	-	3	-	2	89.2		21.5		54	17			14	5	3	2	3	2			2				No		65
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	80.5		12.5		44	17	2	0	11	8	5	5	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	No		4,687
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.6		10.6		30	21	4	0	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		116,137
		10	-	4	-	2	76.6		11.7		35	22	3	0	10	7	6	5	3	3	1	3		0	1		No		205
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	68.5		7.7		19	22	7	1	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0	0.1		10,233
		9	-	4	-	3	60.0		No			20			20	20	40										No		5
10		10	-	6	-	0	61.9		5.7		11	19	11	2	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.1		211,897
		9	-	5	-	2	59.5		3.8		9	20	11	1	10	9	10	8	8	3	4	4	1	2	0		No		420
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	55.5		3.7		5	15	13	3	10	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0.1		17,058
		8	-	5	-	3	75.0		No				50			25					13		13				No		8
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.4		2.9		2	10	14	6	9	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	1	0.5		300,206
		8	-	6	-	2	47.2		1.2		2	9	13	6	7	10	8	8	7	8	7	4	4	4	2	1	0.3		650
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.5		1.8		1	5	11	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	4	2	0.7		21,298
		7	-	6	-	3	37.5		No				25		6	6	6	13	13	19	6			6			No		16
8		8	-	8	-	0	35.0		1.2		0	2	9	10	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	3	1.3		333,079
		7	-	7	-	2	34.5		1.6		0	2	7	8	8	8	8	8	9	8	7	8	6	5	3	3	0.7		708
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	28.2		0.6		0	1	5	11	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	4	1.6		21,390
		6	-	7	-	3	11.1		No					11			22		11			22	22	11			No		9
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.2		0.5		0	0	3	10	4	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	8	8	7	2.9		292,423
		6	-	8	-	2	22.2		0.2			0	2	10	6	5	7	7	9	8	7	10	9	9	7	5	1.6		622
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	17.1		0.2			0	1	8	3	4	6	6	7	8	9	9	10	10	10	8	3.8		16,331
		5	-	8	-	3	33.3		No					17	17				17	33		17					No		6
6		6	-	10	-	0	13.9		0.1			0	1	7	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.8		203,127
		5	-	9	-	2	12.0		No				0	6	2	3	5	8	7	7	9	11	8	9	13	12	6.1		408
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.4		0.1				0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	11	12	14	15	7.3		9,754
		4	-	9	-	3	11.1		No					11					11		22	11	22	11	11		No		9
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.4		0.0				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	20	10.7		108,952
		4	-	10	-	2	6.9		No					2	1	4	1	2	6	6	10	6	12	14	15	21	11.1		217
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	5.0		No					3	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	11	14	17	23	13.5		4,553	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.3		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	14	19	29	17.7		44,930
		3	-	11	-	2	5.2		No					2	2	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	12	17	22	29	13.8		58
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	1.6		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	3	5	8	8	13	22	35	22.1		1,472
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.5		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	12	20	41	27.3		13,686
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No											7		14	7	7	36	29	14.3		14
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.3		No					0			1	1	2	2	3	5	8	12	24	42	30.4		345
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.6		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	4	6	10	20	53	37.5		2,865
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No														25		25	50	25.0		4
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No												2	3	7	5	27	56	45.8		59
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No								0	0	1	1	1	3	4	9	19	63	50.8		376
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No															25	25	50	50.0		4
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No															2	5	93	89.9		169

Total:							38.0	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.0	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	-1.3*+0.1+1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Houston vs Tennessee	+1.3+0.0-1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	93	4	2	1			1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	60	20	20
15		15	-	1	-	0	47	21	11	6	4	4	1	3	1	0	0	0			0		0		0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	37	29	7	12	2		7		2												2
14		14	-	2	-	0	39	18	12	8	6	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	36	18	13	7	6	2	2	5	2	2	2	1	1	0	0			0	1		0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	16	11	9	7	6	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	19	15	23	12		8	8	4	8		4
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	20	16	11	10	8	6	6	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	8	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	22	11	3	8	14	6	9	8	5		3		2	2	3			3	2							2
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	13	11	10	8	7	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	12	10	8	13	4	5	7	5	3	0	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1		3	2	0	1	1	1			1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	7	7	7	6	7	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3			20						20		20		20				20
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	6	5	7	6	5	7	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	3	3	5	4	2	2	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3			13				13		25		13			13						13						13
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	4	4	2	4	4	6	3	4	5	3	4	5	4	4	4	4	5	3	3	3	3	4	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3			6				19					13	6	6		6	13	13			6	6					6
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	2	2	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	3	6	6	5	4	6	4	5	3	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2
		6	-	7	-	3			11							11				11							22	22	11		11
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	0	1	0	1	2	1	3	3	2	3	2	3	3	3	4	3	5	4	5	4	5	6	4	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	3							17	17									17				17	17		17
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2		0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	2	2	3	6	1	3	5	3	3	6	7	4	6	7	4	6	5	6	6
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	7	8	7	7
		4	-	9	-	3									11										22				11	11		22			11		11
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	7	7	9	9	11
		4	-	10	-	2					1			0	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	2	2	1	1	2	4	6	6	5	6	7	5	5	9	8	10	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	7	7	8	9	11	14
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	9	10	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2												2			3	2		2		2	2	3		5	2	10	10	5	14	9	16	14
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1				0			0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	3	3	5	6	7	8	12	16	22
3		3	-	13	-	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	7	9	12	16	27
		2	-	12	-	2																					7	7	7	7				7	21	7	21	14
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1											0			1		0	1		1	1	1	2	2	1	3	5	7	7	9	11	18	30
2		2	-	14	-	0						0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	7	12	19	38
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																							2	3		2	2	7	7	12	20	46
1		1	-	15	-	0															0		0	1	0		0	1	1	1	1	2	4	4	6	11	17	51
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																											25		25			50
0		0	-	16	-	0																												1	2	2	4	90

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3