St. Louis Rams Playoff Chances 2013

Plays Arizona, playoff odds down 0.02 to 37.5%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
St. Louis vs Arizona	+5.7*-0.2-5.7		+1.0*-0.4-1.0		-0.9-0.6+0.9		+0.7*+0.0-0.7
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.4*-0.2+0.4
Seattle vs Carolina	-0.3*-0.4+0.3
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.2*+0.5-0.2						+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta vs St. Louis	-5.4*-0.2+5.4		-1.0*-0.2+1.0		+1.0*-0.4-1.0		-0.7*+0.0+0.7
Arizona vs Detroit	-0.4*-0.1+0.4
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.3*-0.2-0.3
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.3*+0.4-0.3
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.3*-0.7-0.2
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.2*+0.7-0.2						+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. Louis finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		94.2	%	99				1												No		171
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		50.0		100																No		2
15		15	-	1	-	0	98.2	%	50.3		94	0			3	1	1	1	0								No		390
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	95.5		31.8		89				5	2	5										No		44
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.7		37.3		86	1			7	3	1	1	1	0	0	0					No		3,107
		13	-	1	-	2	In		33.3		100																No		6
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	94.1		29.3		80	2			9	4	2	2	0	1	0	0		1			No		338
13		13	-	3	-	0	91.6		27.7		73	5	0		9	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0		0	No		14,811
		12	-	2	-	2	96.4		39.3		75	4			4	14		4									No		28
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	89.8		21.5		65	9	0		10	6	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		No		1,566
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.5		17.9		53	14	1	0	10	7	5	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	47,815
		11	-	3	-	2	88.9		25.0		61	6	1		18	3	3	3	3	1	1						No		72
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	79.2		13.6		42	17	2	0	11	8	6	5	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		4,597	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.2		10.8		28	22	5	0	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		114,599
		10	-	4	-	2	73.4		6.3		24	21	7		14	8	7	5	5	3	4	1	1			1	No		192
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	68.7		7.5		18	22	8	1	10	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.1		10,019
		9	-	4	-	3	57.1		14.3		43		14					29				14					No		7
10		10	-	6	-	0	61.6		5.9		9	19	12	2	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.1		209,380
		9	-	5	-	2	60.6		3.4		7	14	13	2	14	10	8	9	5	5	6	2	2	1	1	0	No		414
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	55.2		3.9		4	14	14	4	10	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	2	2	1	0.2		16,738
		8	-	5	-	3	71.4		14.3		14	29	14		14						14	14					No		7
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.3		2.9		2	9	14	7	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	1	0.5		297,302
		8	-	6	-	2	46.3		3.4		2	10	12	7	8	9	7	7	8	7	6	7	4	4	2	1	0.5		622
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	40.7		1.8		0	4	11	9	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	0.7		21,618
		7	-	6	-	3	15.4		No							15	15	8	15	15	8		8	8	8		No		13
8		8	-	8	-	0	34.7		1.3		0	2	8	11	6	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	3	1.3		333,488
		7	-	7	-	2	32.3		1.4			2	8	9	6	7	9	8	6	8	9	8	6	7	4	3	0.6		713
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	27.9		0.7		0	1	5	11	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	4	1.7		21,589
		6	-	7	-	3	30.8		No					15	8	8	15	8	8	15	15	8					No		13
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.0		0.5		0	0	3	10	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	8	7	3.0		294,246
		6	-	8	-	2	22.7		0.4				1	11	6	5	5	5	9	8	8	8	11	8	7	8	3.5		569
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	17.5		0.2			0	1	9	4	4	6	6	7	8	9	10	10	9	10	9	4.0		16,651
		5	-	8	-	3	33.3		No					11	11	11		11		22	11		11	11			No		9
6		6	-	10	-	0	13.8		0.1			0	0	7	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.9		205,177
		5	-	9	-	2	13.4		No				1	9	2	2	5	5	5	9	7	10	11	9	13	12	4.0		403
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.1		0.1				0	5	2	2	3	5	6	7	8	10	12	12	14	15	7.6		9,817	*
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.3		0.0				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	19	10.7		111,214
		4	-	10	-	2	7.9		No					2	3	3	3	5	6	7	5	8	11	14	15	17	7.4		189
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	5.2		0.0					3	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	8	11	14	17	23	13.4		4,649	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.4		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	13	19	29	17.7		46,289
		3	-	11	-	2	3.2		No							3	2	2	3	5	8	3	18	11	23	23	12.9		62
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	1.9		No					1	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	15	22	32	20.9		1,440	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.2		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	13	21	41	27.4		14,255
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No													6	13	13	31	38	18.8		16
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No								1	1	1	3	4	6	5	11	22	46	30.8		357	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.3		No					0		0	0	1	1	1	2	4	6	10	22	53	37.9		3,208	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No													2	4	12	18	65	47.1		51
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No								0				2	3	3	6	16	70	57.1		408	*
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No														1	2	4	94	92.5		161

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
St. Louis vs Arizona	-1.3-0.0+1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Atlanta vs St. Louis	+1.3-0.1-1.3

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	94	2	2	1	1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	50					50
15		15	-	1	-	0	50	22	11	5	4	2	1	2	1	1		1	0	0	0				0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	32	23	16	5	9	7		2	5	2
14		14	-	2	-	0	37	20	12	8	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		0
		13	-	1	-	2	33	67
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	29	18	12	9	7	4	6	2	3	1	1		2	1	1	1	1	1				1				1
13		13	-	3	-	0	28	16	11	9	7	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		12	-	2	-	2	39	14		11		14	11	4				4							4
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	22	16	11	10	8	6	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	25	10	4	11	7	8	8	1	6	6	4	1		1	3	1		1						1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	14	11	10	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	3	3	3	2	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	9	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	6	11	11	3	7	8	5	8	5	3	3	4	1	4	5	1	5	2	2	1	3	1	1	1		1					1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	14			14		14			14		14					14							14
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	3	6	5	5	4	7	8	7	4	3	4	5	4	5	2	4	4	3	3	3	2	1	1	2	1	2	0	1		0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	14				29					14	14									14			14
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	3	2	5	4	3	4	3	5	4	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	1	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3										8	8		8	8	15			8	8	15					8	8					8
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	2	1	2	3	3	2	2	3	4	4	4	5	4	5	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	2	4	4	2	3	2	2	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	3			8					15			8		8	8	15						8	8	8	15
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	2	1	3	5	3	5	4	2	3	4	4	5	6	4	6	4	4	5	3	4	4
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	3					11			11				11		11						11	22		11			11
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	2	3	4	5	3	3	5	6	5	5	5	5	7	6	7	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	8	8
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	10	11
		4	-	10	-	2			1				1	2	1		1	1	3	2	3	2	4	4	4	4	1	4	2	4	6	7	6	7	6	8	10	7
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	7	8	8	9	11	13
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	10	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2											2		2	2			2	2		3	5	6	3	2	5	5	10	11	11	5	13	13
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1						0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	9	12	15	21
3		3	-	13	-	0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	7	9	12	16	27
		2	-	12	-	2																										6		19	13	6	38	19
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1										0							1	1	0	1	1	1	4	2	3	6	4	6	5	12	21	31
2		2	-	14	-	0						0				0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	5	5	8	12	19	38
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																							2		2	4	2	4	8	10	22	47
1		1	-	15	-	0																			0	0	1	1	0	1	2	1	4	4	6	7	16	57
0		0	-	16	-	0																												1	2	2	2	93

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3