San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances 2013

Plays Green Bay, playoff odds down 0.2 to 37.3%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+5.4*-0.2-5.4		+1.0*-0.4-1.0		-0.9*-0.2+0.9		+0.7*+0.0-0.7
Seattle vs Carolina	-0.4*-0.2+0.4
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.3*+0.1-0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs San Francisco	-5.7*-1.0+5.8		-0.9*-0.3+0.9		+0.9*-0.4-0.9		-0.7*-0.1+0.7
Atlanta vs St. Louis	+0.5*-0.9-0.4
Arizona vs Detroit	-0.4*-0.2+0.4
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.4*+0.1-0.3		+0.1*+0.2-0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.3*+0.1-0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.2*-0.2-0.3
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.2*-0.6-0.2						+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Francisco finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		97.0	%	100																No		166	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.3	%	50.7		92	0			5	1	0	0									No		418	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	95.9		55.1		90				4	2	2	2									No		49
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.5		38.5		86	1			6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		3,159	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	95.0		31.0		79	4			8	4	1	2	1	0	0						No		339
13		13	-	3	-	0	92.0		27.2		73	5	0		9	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		14,304
		12	-	2	-	2	96.7		30.0		77	10			7	3	3										No		30
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	89.5		21.3		65	8	0		9	7	4	2	2	1	1	0	0		0		No		1,565
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.1		17.8		53	13	1	0	10	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	46,989
		11	-	3	-	2	78.4		18.9		46	18			11	4	11	4	3	1	1			1			No		74
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	79.8		13.3		42	18	2	0	10	8	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		4,626	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.0		10.6		28	21	5	0	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		113,307
		10	-	4	-	2	78.8		13.5		25	25	4	0	17	7	6	3	1	3	2	2	2	1			No		208
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	68.9		7.7		18	22	8	1	10	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		10,078
		9	-	4	-	3	80.0		No		30	20	10		20				10			10					No		10
10		10	-	6	-	0	61.8		5.8		10	19	12	2	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.1		206,838
		9	-	5	-	2	63.0		3.8		9	20	10	2	12	9	7	7	7	4	4	3	3	1		0	No		416
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	54.3		3.9		4	14	14	4	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	1	1	0.2		16,751
		8	-	5	-	3	43.8		No			6	6	6	13	13	13		6	13	13	6		6			No		16
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.2		2.9		2	9	14	7	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	1	0.5		295,841
		8	-	6	-	2	50.8		2.9		1	8	12	8	11	10	9	9	6	6	7	3	4	2	2	1	0.3		592
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.8		1.7		0	4	12	9	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	0.6		21,455
		7	-	6	-	3	37.5		No				13	13		13	13	13				25			13		No		8
8		8	-	8	-	0	34.9		1.2		0	2	8	11	6	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	3	1.2		332,546
		7	-	7	-	2	32.3		1.1		0	2	7	9	5	8	8	8	8	8	8	6	7	7	5	3	0.9		635
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	28.8		0.7		0	0	5	11	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	4	1.7		21,451
		6	-	7	-	3	28.6		No				7	14	7					7	7	14	21	14	7		No		14
7		7	-	9	-	0	22.9		0.5		0	0	3	10	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	9	8	7	2.9		296,674
		6	-	8	-	2	21.2		No				2	10	4	6	7	8	5	9	8	8	9	10	7	6	2.4		595
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	16.8		0.2			0	1	8	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	10	10	10	9	4.0		16,844
		5	-	8	-	3	36.4		No					9	18	9			9	9	27				9	9	No		11
6		6	-	10	-	0	13.7		0.1			0	0	7	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.9		207,057
		5	-	9	-	2	14.2		No				1	8	2	4	3	7	6	8	8	9	7	13	12	12	6.4		393
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.1		0.0				0	5	2	2	4	5	6	7	8	10	11	12	14	15	7.1		9,942
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No											10		10	20	30	20	10	No		10
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.4		0.0				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	19	10.4		113,073
		4	-	10	-	2	5.0		No					3		2	2	3	4	6	11	5	11	16	17	20	10.9		221
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	4.9		No				0	3	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	8	11	14	18	24	13.7		4,561	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.3		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	14	19	29	18.0		47,313
		3	-	11	-	2	3.4		No					2	1		2	1	3	6	6	16	6	10	17	30	15.9		88
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	1.0		No					0	0	1	1	2	2	4	3	5	11	14	22	34	20.6		1,506	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.3		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	8	13	21	41	27.9		14,581
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No										5	5		5	9	5	32	41	27.3		22
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	1.2		No					1		0	0		3	2	3	3	7	11	20	49	36.3		344
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.3		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	6	12	21	52	37.5		3,117	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No												5		5	5	16	70	60.5		43
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No										0	1	1	3	5	9	16	65	49.5		382
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No														25		25	50	No		4
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No											1			1		2	96	95.8		166

Total:							37.3	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-1.3*-0.0+1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle vs San Francisco	+1.3*+0.1-1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	98	1	1			1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1		100
15		15	-	1	-	0	51	21	9	8	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0		0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	55	14	12		6	2		2	4		2		2
14		14	-	2	-	0	38	18	11	9	6	4	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0			0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	31	18	11	10	6	6	4	1	1	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	16	12	9	7	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	30	23	10	3	7	3	7	3			10		3
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	21	16	11	10	8	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0		0		0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	19	11	14	4	14	5	4	1	8		3	3	3		5		1			3			1	1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	13	11	9	8	8	6	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	10	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	13	8	6	11	7	6	4	8	5	5	6	5	1	2	1	1	1		1	0	2	1	1	1	0		1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	8	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3				10	10	20		20	10		10							10			10
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	7	6	4	5	8	6	6	4	7	4	3	5	4	3	3	4	2	2	3	3	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3				6	13		6	6			13		13			6		13	6				6		13
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	3	3	4	4	5	4	5	5	5	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	4	4	2	4	3	2	3	2	2	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3		13	13					13						25						13	13								13
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	1	1	3	2	2	3	4	3	4	5	4	5	4	3	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	3	4	2	3	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	3				7		7						7		7		7					7	21		7		7		7	14
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2		1	2	1	1	2	3	3	2	3	2	4	3	3	5	3	3	4	4	5	4	5	6	3	5	5	5	4	3	4	5	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4
		5	-	8	-	3						9	9				9	9						9			27		9							9	9
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2		1	1	0	1	0	2	1	2	1	1	3	2	2	3	3	4	4	3	3	6	5	4	5	4	4	4	7	5	7	7	6
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	7
		4	-	9	-	3																							10		20	20			10	20	20
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	10
		4	-	10	-	2					1	0				0		1	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	3	4	7	5	7	4	8	10	9	9	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	8	8	9	12	14
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	11	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2										1			1		2	2	1	1	3	2	5	3	5	2	6	6	3	7	8	14	11	16
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1									0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	1	2	4	4	6	6	9	10	12	14	21
3		3	-	13	-	0			0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	7	9	11	17	28
		2	-	12	-	2															5							5				5	5	5	5	14	32	27
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1											0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	1	3	2	2	4	8	9	10	16	36
2		2	-	14	-	0						0			0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	5	6	8	11	18	38
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																							5				5	2	5	9	14	60
1		1	-	15	-	0															0		0		0		0	1	1	2	2	2	3	5	5	12	18	49
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																										25				25	50
0		0	-	16	-	0																				1				1	1					1	2	96

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3