San Diego Chargers Playoff Chances 2013

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 39.4%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Denver 7 Baltimore 21 +0.4
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 +0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs San Diego-5.4*-0.2+5.4
-1.0*-0.6+1.0
+0.9*-0.5-0.9
-0.7-0.0+0.7
Kansas City vs Jacksonville-0.4*-0.0+0.4
Indianapolis vs Oakland+0.4*+0.1-0.4
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay-0.2*+0.5+0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
San Diego vs Philadelphia+5.2*-0.2-5.2
+1.0*-0.1-1.0
-0.9*-0.3+0.9
+0.6*-0.0-0.6
Kansas City vs Dallas-0.6*-0.1+0.7
-0.0*+0.2+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Denver vs NY Giants-0.7*+0.0+0.5
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Oakland vs Jacksonville-0.5*-0.4+0.5
Buffalo vs Carolina-0.3*+0.7+0.2
Miami vs Indianapolis+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Diego finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inReg SeasonChance will finish regular season at seedCollege
TWW-L-TplayoffsChamp12345678910111213141516LevelCount
1616-0-0In93.6%9911No172
15.515-0-1In50.0100No4
1515-1-098.3%48.593411100No517
14.514-1-196.740.0905222No60
1414-2-096.639.1871632110000No3,575*
13.513-2-195.832.28317421001No428
1313-3-092.327.2764084321100000No16,697
12-2-293.313.36013207No15
12.512-3-190.923.070709532211000No1,735*
1212-4-084.917.65513109643221110000.0%52,579
11-3-291.515.956161191142No82
11.511-4-180.912.644172010864331110000.05,067*
1111-5-075.010.631225010865432211000.0123,096
10-4-279.47.333243117670121111No218
10.510-5-169.37.720238110876543211000.010,523
9-4-375.0No7525No4
1010-6-062.85.911201229876654322110.1218,526
9-5-260.42.991912111987654420210.2447
9.59-6-156.33.95151549887665432210.317,226
8-5-362.5No1313131313131313No8
99-7-049.12.92101478887766544320.5305,400
8-6-248.82.82912791071077643331No563
8.58-7-142.51.7151298888777654320.621,529
7-6-323.1No88838888887.713
88-8-035.71.2029116777777776531.3333,230
7-7-235.90.3029116777987865430.5739
7.57-8-128.60.7015125677888887641.721,116
6-7-325.0No81788825178No12
77-9-023.90.5003114567788898872.9287,728
6-8-222.80.7013114467778899972.1580
6.56-9-118.50.20110345678999101093.816,079
5-8-321.4No217777217147No14
66-10-014.30.101834556789101112126.0195,179
5-9-210.40.362345781010111112135.8396
5.55-10-19.70.10622455789111214157.49,353
4-9-3OutNo25252525No4
55-11-07.70.004123456791113152010.8102,815
4-10-29.4No62221558914820198.4191
4.54-11-14.6No03112345781114172413.64,196*
44-12-03.80.002112234681013193017.941,594
3-11-21.7No2327935910173317.258
3.53-12-11.7No1001224571011213623.61,324*
33-13-01.5No100112346813214127.012,283
2-12-210.0No555101515153025.020
2.52-13-11.4No10123479205134.0285
22-14-00.5No000001124711195439.92,595*
1.51-14-1OutNo272511165747.744
11-15-0OutNo11159176753.6347
0.50-15-1OutNo336733.33
00-16-0OutNo129795.1163
Total:39.4%3.3%77776666666666662.9%1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
Houston vs San Diego+1.3*+0.1-1.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Lottery seed
San Diego vs Philadelphia-1.3*+0.0+1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-09422111
15.515-0-15050
1515-1-049201163312110100
14.514-1-140227510255222
1414-2-03919128543221111100000000
13.513-2-132161497533321110000000
1313-3-027161197654322121111000000000000
12-2-21320713207777
12.512-3-1231513976543322111111110000000
1212-4-018131087655433222211111100000000000
11-3-2161751161165642211141
11.511-4-11311108766644433222211111100000000
1111-5-0119987665544433322221111111000000
10-4-27111010767554534231111021011000
10.510-5-188776655554444332222211111000000
9-4-325252525
1010-6-066666555544444333322222211111000
9-5-23476564454564343334221222101100
9.59-6-145555555554444443333322221111100
8-5-33813251313
99-7-034444444444444444333333222221110
8-6-23325454454543436543322222212111
8.58-7-122333444445444444443333332322211
7-6-315883115888
88-8-012233333344444444444444333333221
7-7-201134334544435434454344533323121
7.57-8-111122233333334444444444444443322
6-7-3178888888888
77-9-001112222233333334444444444444443
6-8-211112232213333243553446444354542
6.56-9-100111112222333334444444555555554
5-8-377147714777777
66-10-000011111122223333344444555566666
5-9-201111122232333245347546646886
5.55-10-100000011111222233333445556667787
4-9-325252525
55-11-0000000111111122223333445566788911
4-10-2111113112243335477645710138
4.54-11-1000000010111122222334345777891114
44-12-000000000000111111222334445678101318
3-11-22232259237952591717
3.53-12-100000010011122133456569111524
33-13-0000000000000011111223345578111627
2-12-255555551010551025
2.52-13-1010111013134568141734
22-14-0000000000001112233458101840
1.51-14-1525222752348
11-15-000000012233691954
0.50-15-16733
00-16-012295
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333