New York Jets Playoff Chances 2013

Plays Tampa Bay, playoff odds up 0.4 to 37.5%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+5.1*-0.7-5.1		+1.0*-0.0-1.0		-0.9*-0.2+0.9		+0.6*-0.0-0.6
Miami vs Cleveland	-0.4*-0.2+0.4

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs NY Jets	-5.7*+0.1+5.7		-0.9*-0.2+0.9		+0.9*-0.4-0.9		-0.7*+0.0+0.7
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.2+1.6+0.3						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.6*+1.4+0.6						-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Miami vs Indianapolis	-0.4*+0.4+0.4						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*-0.2+0.3
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.3*-0.6+0.2						-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh							+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Jets finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		93.9	%	100																No		165	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	98.8	%	52.2		92	0			4	2	1		0				0				No		423
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		30.0		90				8	2											No		50
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.8		39.2		86	1			7	3	1	1	1	0	0	0					No		2,969
		13	-	1	-	2	In		No		100																No		4
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	95.0		31.0		79	2			8	6	2	1	1	0		0					No		342
13		13	-	3	-	0	91.9		26.9		75	4	0		8	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		14,273
		12	-	2	-	2	In		12.5		63	6			25	6											No		16
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	89.4		21.4		67	6	0		9	7	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0		No		1,446	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.7		17.6		55	12	1	0	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	46,373
		11	-	3	-	2	89.4		10.6		42	14	3		26	5	3	5	2	2							No		66
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	80.2		12.3		44	16	2	0	10	8	6	4	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	No		4,471	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.6		10.7		31	21	4	0	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		112,067
		10	-	4	-	2	74.4		9.6		30	16	5		13	11	6	6	6	3	1	3		1	0		No		219
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	68.4		7.3		20	22	7	1	10	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		9,839
		9	-	4	-	3	In		25.0		50	25			25												No		4
10		10	-	6	-	0	62.1		5.9		11	19	11	2	10	9	7	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.2		205,683
		9	-	5	-	2	60.8		3.9		10	21	8	1	11	8	8	7	5	4	5	3	4	1	2		No		413
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	54.2		3.9		5	15	13	3	9	9	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	0.3		16,686
		8	-	5	-	3	42.9		No			14	21		7			29				7	14	7			No		14
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.5		2.9		2	10	14	6	9	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	1	0.5		294,914
		8	-	6	-	2	48.8		2.7		3	9	14	6	9	9	8	6	8	7	4	6	4	3	3	1	0.7		590
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.3		1.9		1	5	12	8	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	0.6		21,487
		7	-	6	-	3	37.5		No				6	6	13	13	13	13	6	6		6	6	6		6	6.3		16
8		8	-	8	-	0	35.1		1.3		0	2	9	10	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	3	1.3		333,308
		7	-	7	-	2	39.0		1.2		0	3	10	11	5	10	6	8	8	8	6	6	7	6	3	3	1.1		734
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	28.7		0.5		0	1	5	10	5	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	1.9		21,148
		6	-	7	-	3	12.5		No						13			13		13			38			25	12.5		8
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.5		0.5		0	0	3	10	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	8	8	7	2.9		296,857
		6	-	8	-	2	19.2		0.2			1	4	7	4	4	5	7	9	11	8	11	10	9	6	5	1.2		584
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	17.7		0.3			0	1	8	3	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	10	10	10	8	3.6		16,667
		5	-	8	-	3	25.0		No				25							13		25	13		13	13	12.5		8
6		6	-	10	-	0	14.1		0.1		0	0	1	7	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.8		209,237
		5	-	9	-	2	12.5		No				1	6	1	4	4	4	8	9	9	8	11	12	10	12	6.6		409
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.5		0.0			0	0	5	2	3	4	4	6	7	8	9	11	12	14	15	7.5		10,142
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No															40	20	40	20.0		5
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.4		0.0			0	0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	19	10.5		113,973
		4	-	10	-	2	9.0		No					5		3	5	3	2	5	8	12	12	9	15	18	12.4		201
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	4.7		No					2	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	10	15	17	23	12.5		4,526	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.3		No				0	2	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	14	19	29	17.8		47,859
		3	-	11	-	2	5.7		No					3	1	1	1	3	6	6	3	3	13	19	17	24	11.4		70
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	1.6		No					1	0	1	1	2	2	3	6	8	9	13	21	34	21.3		1,599
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.3		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	9	13	20	40	26.9		14,712
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No											5			9	5	18	64	45.5		22
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.3		No							0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	10	25	44	30.8		354
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	11	21	52	37.5		3,268	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No														2	2	12	83	63.4		41
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No										0		1	1	4	9	22	63	48.3		404
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																	100	Yes		4
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No														1	1	2	96	95.1		162

Total:							37.5	%	3.0	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-1.3*+0.1+1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs NY Jets	+1.3*-0.1-1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	96	4	1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	50	50
15		15	-	1	-	0	52	17	9	6	5	4	3	1	0	0	1	0		0	0		0			0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	30	18	22	8	10	4	2	2			2			2
14		14	-	2	-	0	39	19	11	8	6	4	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0		0	0	0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	31	16	10	9	7	5	5	3	5	2	2	1	1	1	0	1	0			0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	17	12	9	7	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		12	-	2	-	2	13	13	25	6	6	6	13	13		6
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	21	15	11	8	9	7	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	11	5	11	12	12	9	11	8	5	5	3	2	2		2	2	3				2
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	12	10	10	9	8	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	9	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	10	7	9	11	5	4	9	5	5	3	7	4	4	3	1	3	4	2	2		0		1	1	1	0	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	7	8	7	7	6	6	6	5	4	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	6	6	5	8	5	6	7	4	4	4	3	5	4	4	4	2	2	3	2	2	1	2	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
		8	-	5	-	3		7	7	21				7	7			7	7			7								7	7	7	7
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	4	5	5	5	3	4	3	3	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	3	3	3	3	2	1	2	2	1	0	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3				6			6	13	6		13		13	6			6			13			6		6							6
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	2	3	3	3	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	3	3	2	4	4	2	3	3	2	3	1	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	3								13										13			13		13			13		13	13			13
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	3	3	4	6	4	6	5	5	7	5	6	5	4	4	3	4	3	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	3				13					13													13			13	25		13				13
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2		0	0	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	7	6	5	5	5	4	6	5	5	7
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	8	7	8	8
		4	-	9	-	3																									20			40			20	20
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	9	9	10
		4	-	10	-	2			0			0			1	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	2	3	4	3	2	6	4	6	8	2	6	8	6	6	4	12
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	7	9	10	11	13
4		4	-	12	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	7	9	10	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2							1		1			1	1			1	6	3	1	6	1		4			6	11	6	10	10	17	11
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1									0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	7	7	8	11	16	21
3		3	-	13	-	0		0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	6	7	9	12	16	27
		2	-	12	-	2																		5				5						5	5	9	27	45
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1													0	0	1		0	1	0	1	2	2	2	2	3	4	4	6	9	15	17	31
2		2	-	14	-	0			0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	4	4	6	8	13	17	38
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																									2			5	7	2	20	63
1		1	-	15	-	0																			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	3	9	11	20	48
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																																100
0		0	-	16	-	0																												1	1	1	2	95

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3