Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances 2013

Plays Cleveland, playoff odds up 0.4 to 37.5%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Miami vs Cleveland	+5.5*-0.5-5.4		+0.9*-0.2-0.9		-1.0*-0.4+1.0		+0.7+0.0-0.7
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.6*+0.2+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Miami vs Indianapolis	+5.4*-0.3-5.4		+0.9*-0.4-0.9		-0.9*-0.2+0.9		+0.7*-0.0-0.7
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.6*-0.2+0.6						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+0.8+0.3
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.3*+0.9+0.2						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.3*+0.7+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Miami finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		94.5	%	100																No		164	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	99.3	%	50.2		92				5	2	0		0								No		422
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		43.5		98				2												No		46
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.1		37.5		86	1			6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0				No		3,014
		13	-	1	-	2	In		40.0		80					20											No		5
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	93.3		34.6		80	1			9	3	3	1	1	1	0						No		356
13		13	-	3	-	0	91.7		27.4		74	4	0		9	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		14,130
		12	-	2	-	2	89.5		21.1		68				11	11	5	5									No		19
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	88.4		21.9		65	8	0		9	6	5	3	1	1	1	0	0	0			No		1,478
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.7		17.7		55	12	1	0	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	46,600
		11	-	3	-	2	87.2		11.5		59	12	1		9	6	3	4	4	1	1						No		78
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	80.7		13.6		45	16	2	0	10	7	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	No		4,403	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.7		10.7		31	20	4	0	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		112,115
		10	-	4	-	2	75.0		9.4		29	17	5		17	8	8	6	4	2	2	2	1	1			No		192
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	69.0		7.6		20	23	6	1	11	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		9,878
		9	-	4	-	3	40.0		No		20					20		20		20						20	No		5
10		10	-	6	-	0	62.3		5.9		11	19	11	2	10	9	7	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.1		205,617
		9	-	5	-	2	64.3		5.4		12	15	15	1	13	8	8	6	6	5	4	4	1	1	1		No		389
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	55.6		3.8		5	15	13	3	10	9	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0.3		16,628
		8	-	5	-	3	55.6		No			22	33				11	11				22					No		9
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.4		2.9		2	10	14	6	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	3	3	2	0.5		294,443
		8	-	6	-	2	46.0		1.5		2	11	11	6	7	10	9	11	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	2	0.5		583
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.6		1.6		1	5	12	9	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	5	3	2	0.7		21,293
		7	-	6	-	3	47.4		No			11	16	5	5	11	11	21		11	5	5					No		19
8		8	-	8	-	0	35.2		1.3		0	2	9	10	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	3	1.2		333,478
		7	-	7	-	2	32.6		0.1		0	2	8	9	6	7	9	8	8	7	8	5	9	5	6	2	0.9		694
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	27.8		0.7		0	1	5	10	5	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	4	1.7		21,528
		6	-	7	-	3	26.7		No				7			20	7		7	7	13	7	13			20	6.7		15
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.3		0.5		0	0	3	10	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	8	7	2.9		296,628
		6	-	8	-	2	22.8		0.3			0	4	10	3	6	5	9	7	9	9	9	8	9	7	6	2.0		609
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	17.6		0.2			0	1	8	3	4	6	6	7	8	9	9	10	10	9	9	4.0		16,724
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No									22				11	11	22	22	11	11.1		9
6		6	-	10	-	0	14.0		0.1		0	0	1	7	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.8		209,080
		5	-	9	-	2	12.6		No					4	3	5	4	7	7	8	9	12	7	13	10	10	4.6		388
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.4		0.0				0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	11	13	13	15	7.2		10,003	*
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.4		0.0				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	13	16	20	10.7		114,844
		4	-	10	-	2	6.8		No					4	0	2	1	3	5	2	9	11	12	13	19	18	8.7		207
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	5.1		No				0	3	1	1	3	3	4	5	6	9	12	13	18	23	13.1		4,586	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.4		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	3	4	6	7	10	14	19	29	17.6		47,559
		3	-	11	-	2	3.0		No						2	2	2	2	6	3	3	6	6	17	24	29	15.2		66
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	1.9		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	14	19	35	21.6		1,583
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.1		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	8	12	21	41	27.4		14,787
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No												6		19	13	19	44	31.3		16
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.8		No					1			0	1	1	1	2	5	8	14	18	49	36.1		379
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	4	6	11	19	55	39.6		3,105	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No												5	5	4	11	23	52	42.9		56
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No								0	0	0	0	1	2	2	8	21	64	47.9		432
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																	100	66.7		3
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No														1		1	98	95.8		167

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami vs Cleveland	-1.3*-0.0+1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami vs Indianapolis	-1.3*+0.0+1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	96	3	1			1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1		100
15		15	-	1	-	0	50	20	9	6	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0							0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	43	28	9	15	2	2
14		14	-	2	-	0	37	18	11	8	6	4	3	3	2	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					0
		13	-	1	-	2	40	20	20								20
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	35	15	12	10	6	4	3	4	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	1		0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	16	11	8	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	21	16	16	11	11	5			5		5	5				5
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	22	15	12	8	7	5	5	4	5	3	2	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0		0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	12	19	21	6	5	4	6	1	4	6	3	1	3	3		1	1	1	1			1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	14	12	10	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	10	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	9	6	8	7	7	6	8	5	7	4	7	4	2	3	2	4	3	2	1	2	1	1	2	1				1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	7	8	7	7	5	6	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3								20	20								20			20											20
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	5	6	6	6	7	4	6	4	5	5	4	3	4	5	4	3	4	2	2	2	3	2	1	1	1	1	0		1	1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		22	11	22									11		11					11			11
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	5	4	3	3	3	4	4	5	4	4	4	6	4	5	6	3	5	3	2	3	2	3	2	3	1	1	1	1	2	1	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3			5	11	11				5	5	11	16		5	5	5		5		5	5				5
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	0	1	2	2	3	2	3	4	3	4	4	3	3	4	5	6	4	3	3	4	4	5	5	4	3	4	2	3	2	3	2	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	3									7	13		7				13		7		7	7			13			7	7		7		7
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	4	5	3	4	5	4	4	6	4	4	4	5	4	3	5	4	2	3	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	3																			11		11	11		11				22	11		11	11
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2		0		1	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	2	4	5	3	2	4	4	5	5	4	5	5	6	4	5	5	6	5	5	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	7
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	11
		4	-	10	-	2		0		0	0		0	1	0		1		1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	5	6	6	4	6	7	6	6	7	14	9
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	8	9	12	13
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	9	10	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2											2			2		2	3	2	3	2		3	2	2	5	9	6	9	3	20	14	15
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1			0		0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	2	4	4	4	5	6	8	7	11	15	22
3		3	-	13	-	0		0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	7	9	12	16	27
		2	-	12	-	2																									6	6	6	13	6	19	13	31
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1											0			1		1	0	0		1	1	2	2	3	4	3	5	9	9	9	14	36
2		2	-	14	-	0									0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	6	7	11	19	40
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																						2	2	4	7	2	2	2	5	9	23	43
1		1	-	15	-	0													0		0				1	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	3	4	6	12	21	48
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																															33	67
0		0	-	16	-	0																												1		1	2	96

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3