Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances 2013

Plays Jacksonville, playoff odds down 0.02 to 39.1%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Denver 7 Baltimore 21	+0.5
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.3						+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+5.4*-0.8-5.4		+1.0*-0.6-1.0		-0.9*-0.2+0.9		+0.7*-0.0-0.7
Houston vs San Diego	+0.5*-0.8-0.4						+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Indianapolis vs Oakland	+0.4*+0.8-0.4						+0.0*+0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*-0.3+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Kansas City vs Dallas	+4.7*-0.8-5.6		+0.9*-0.4-1.0		-0.9-0.6+1.0		+0.6*-0.0-0.7
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.7*-0.5+0.7						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.7*-1.0+0.5						-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Oakland vs Jacksonville	-0.4*+0.4+0.4
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.3*-0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Kansas City finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		88.3	%	100																No		179	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	97.9	%	49.8		92	0			4	2	1	0	0	0	0						No		522
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	98.2		44.6		93				4	2		2									No		56
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.6		36.8		86	1			6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0					No		3,437
		13	-	1	-	2	In		25.0		100																No		4
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	94.4		33.0		84	1			8	2	3	2	1	0	0						No		376
13		13	-	3	-	0	92.0		26.9		74	5	0		8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		15,887
		12	-	2	-	2	93.8		25.0		88				6					6							No		16
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	90.3		21.8		68	7	0		9	6	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0			No		1,654	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	85.0		17.6		55	13	1	0	10	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	51,111
		11	-	3	-	2	87.4		20.7		62	8	1		11	5	3	2	3		1			2			No		87
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	81.8		13.1		45	17	2	0	11	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	No		4,908	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	75.1		10.8		31	22	5	0	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		120,655
		10	-	4	-	2	80.3		8.3		38	20	5		10	8	6	2	5	1	3	1	0		1		No		218
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	69.0		7.4		20	23	7	1	10	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		10,514
		9	-	4	-	3	50.0		No			33			17		33	17									No		6
10		10	-	6	-	0	62.6		5.8		11	20	12	2	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.1		216,604
		9	-	5	-	2	63.5		4.8		13	22	11	1	10	6	8	5	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	No		416
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	55.9		4.0		5	15	14	4	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	3	1	1	0.3		17,156
		8	-	5	-	3	66.7		No		17				33	17		33									No		6
9		9	-	7	-	0	49.3		2.9		2	10	14	7	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	2	0.5		302,657
		8	-	6	-	2	47.4		2.4		3	10	12	7	8	8	11	7	8	6	5	6	4	2	2	1	No		633
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	42.2		1.6		1	5	12	9	7	8	8	8	7	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	0.7		21,539
		7	-	6	-	3	53.8		No					31	15	8	8	15		8	8		8				No		13
8		8	-	8	-	0	35.8		1.3		0	2	9	11	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	3	1.2		332,502
		7	-	7	-	2	32.8		1.0		0	3	7	10	6	7	7	7	7	9	8	9	7	5	4	3	1.2		722
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	28.9		0.6		0	1	5	12	5	6	7	8	7	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	1.9		20,980
		6	-	7	-	3	18.2		No						9	9	27	9	27				9	9			No		11
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.8		0.5		0	0	3	11	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	8	8	7	2.9		289,348
		6	-	8	-	2	22.9		0.7		0	0	2	12	4	5	6	6	9	9	10	7	8	8	7	7	2.4		586
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	17.7		0.2			0	1	9	3	4	5	6	7	8	8	9	10	10	10	9	4.0		16,123
		5	-	8	-	3	8.3		No					8					8		17	17		25	17	8	8.3		12
6		6	-	10	-	0	14.5		0.2			0	1	8	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.9		198,464
		5	-	9	-	2	14.0		No				0	8	2	4	7	6	4	4	8	10	9	13	12	13	3.8		394
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.9		0.1				0	5	2	3	4	4	5	7	8	10	11	12	14	15	7.4		9,377
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No									25	25						50		No		4
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.8		0.0			0	0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	20	10.9		106,321
		4	-	10	-	2	8.1		No					5	2	2	7	3	4	4	7	9	11	14	15	19	11.7		197
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	5.1		No					3	1	1	2	2	4	5	7	8	11	13	17	24	13.1		4,225	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.6		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	13	19	30	17.9		42,758
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No									4	2	7	4	7	9	16	32	21	8.8		57
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	1.8		No					1		1	1	2	3	4	4	6	9	14	20	37	22.8		1,391	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.5		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	13	21	40	26.4		13,056
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No											5	9	9	14	14	23	27	9.1		22
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.7		No						0	0	0	1	1	1	4	4	9	13	20	45	26.4		295
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.6		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	4	6	10	19	55	38.4		2,783	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No													2	2	13	13	69	46.7		45
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No										1	1	1	3	6	7	17	65	50.1		339
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No													20				80	60.0		5
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																3	97	96.3		161

Total:							39.1	%	3.2	%	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	2.9	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	-1.3*+0.1+1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Dallas	-1.2+0.0+1.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	89	5	3	3		1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	80						20
15		15	-	1	-	0	50	20	11	6	3	3	2	0	1	1	1	1		0	0	0			0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	45	20	16	5	4	5	2	2			2
14		14	-	2	-	0	37	19	12	8	5	5	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	33	16	14	9	5	5	4	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	1		0	0	0			0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	16	12	9	7	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	25	25		6	19	13	6							6
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	22	14	12	10	7	6	4	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	8	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	21	17	6	10	7	7	2	2	8	2	2	1	1	3		3	2	1									1	1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	13	11	10	8	8	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	9	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	8	9	9	7	8	7	6	7	6	5	3	3	4	2	3	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0			1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3			17	17	17					17				17	17
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	5	7	6	7	7	7	4	3	3	6	5	4	3	5	4	4	3	3	2	1	1	3	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3			17	33								17	17					17
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	3	4	3	5	3	5	3	4	5	7	5	5	4	4	5	5	3	3	3	2	2	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3					8	15	15				23		8						8		8		8	8
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	0	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	4	3	5	4	4	5	4	4	2	5	5	4	2	3	2	2	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	3									9	9	9			9	9	9		9	18						9		9
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	1	1	1	0	2	2	1	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	2	3	4	4	4	4	5	6	5	5	3	4	5	3	5	4	3	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	3			8																8	8				17	8		33	8				8
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2		0	0	1	0		1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	2	2	2	5	5	5	7	4	5	5	6	9	8	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	7	7	8	10	11
		4	-	10	-	2			1	1		1	2	1	2	2	1	2	1	1	3	2	3	1	4	4	4	2	3	6	4	8	5	8	6	8	10	12
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1				0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	3	4	5	5	5	6	7	8	9	12	13
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	10	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2															2	2	2	2		2	4	2	4	7	5	4	5	5	11	18	19	9
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1								0	0		0	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	2	4	4	4	6	8	10	11	15	23
3		3	-	13	-	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	9	12	15	26
		2	-	12	-	2																		5				5	5	5	5	9	9	5	5	9	32	9
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1						0								0		0	0	1	2	2	1	1	2	2	3	5	4	6	11	13	19	26
2		2	-	14	-	0							0	0			0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	6	8	11	18	38
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																						2		2			2	7	13	7	20	47
1		1	-	15	-	0																		0		1	0	1		1	1	3	4	5	7	8	18	50
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																							20								20	60
0		0	-	16	-	0																												1			3	96

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3