Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances 2013

Plays at Kansas City, playoff odds up 0.3 to 38%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.3						+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	-5.4*-1.1+5.4		-1.0*-0.3+1.0		+0.9*-0.3-0.9		-0.7*-0.0+0.7
Houston vs San Diego	-0.5*+0.4+0.5
Indianapolis vs Oakland	-0.4*+0.6+0.4
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	-0.4*-0.2+0.4
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*+0.1+0.3						-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville	-5.4*-1.1+5.4		-1.0*-0.4+1.0		+0.9*-0.4-0.9		-0.7*-0.0+0.7
Miami vs Indianapolis	+0.4*-0.5-0.4						+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.3*-0.0+0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.3*-1.1+0.3						-0.0*-0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+0.1+0.2
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.2*-0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jacksonville finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		95.2	%	99				1												No		168
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		1
15		15	-	1	-	0	98.8	%	49.3		93	0			4	2	0	1									No		408
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	94.2		38.5		92				2		2	2					2				No		52
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.6		38.0		87	1			7	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				No		3,423	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	94.6		30.5		81	1			9	4	1	2	1	1	0		0				No		423
13		13	-	3	-	0	91.8		27.4		74	5	0	0	9	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		15,463	*
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	88.6		23.1		67	7	0		10	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0				No		1,623	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.4		17.6		54	12	1	0	10	7	5	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	49,128
		11	-	3	-	2	82.7		15.3		59	6	1		8	8	6	3	4	3	1						No		98
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	80.6		13.9		43	17	2	0	10	9	6	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0		4,725
		10	-	3	-	3	85.7		14.3		43	14			29							14					No		7
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.7		10.8		30	21	4	0	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		116,738
		10	-	4	-	2	81.3		7.8		33	28	4		9	7	6	4	2	1	3	1	1	2			No		192
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	69.3		7.6		20	22	7	1	11	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.1		10,309
		9	-	4	-	3	90.0		20.0		20	40			10	20		10									No		10
10		10	-	6	-	0	62.1		5.9		11	19	11	2	10	9	7	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.1		211,999
		9	-	5	-	2	60.4		5.5		9	18	12	2	11	8	11	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	1	1	0.5		379
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	55.7		4.1		5	14	14	4	10	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0.3		16,739
		8	-	5	-	3	45.5		9.1			18	18		9			18		18			9	9			No		11
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.4		2.9		2	10	13	6	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	1	0.5		299,397
		8	-	6	-	2	47.9		2.1		2	8	14	6	9	9	10	8	6	7	5	4	3	3	3	2	0.3		609
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.1		1.8		1	5	12	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	0.6		21,381
		7	-	6	-	3	27.3		No			18	9				18	18		27						9	9.1		11
8		8	-	8	-	0	35.1		1.3		0	2	9	10	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	3	1.3		332,174
		7	-	7	-	2	33.1		1.1		0	2	7	12	6	6	9	10	9	8	7	6	6	6	4	2	0.6		709	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	28.7		0.6		0	1	5	11	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	1.7		21,382
		6	-	7	-	3	20.0		No			10		10			10	10		10		10	10	30			No		10
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.1		0.5		0	0	3	10	4	5	6	7	8	8	8	9	9	8	8	7	2.9		292,284
		6	-	8	-	2	22.6		0.7			0	2	10	5	6	6	9	6	7	6	11	9	7	9	6	3.0		593
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	17.2		0.2			0	1	8	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	10	10	10	9	3.9		16,648
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No								14		29	14	14	14		14			No		7
6		6	-	10	-	0	13.9		0.1			0	1	7	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.9		203,335
		5	-	9	-	2	13.6		No			0	0	7	2	4	5	5	6	6	8	11	10	13	9	14	6.8		425
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.1		0.1				0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	11	12	14	14	7.1		9,585
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No								14		14	14	14			14	14	14	No		7
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.5		0.0				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	20	10.6		109,571
		4	-	10	-	2	8.0		No					5	1	3	2	2	8	7	10	7	10	15	14	18	11.2		188
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	4.8		No					2	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	13	18	23	12.6		4,446	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.5		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	14	19	29	17.6		45,348
		3	-	11	-	2	2.4		No					1	1		1	1	7	1	7	7	9	12	25	27	20.0		85
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	1.9		No					1	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	6	9	16	21	33	20.6		1,393
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.4		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	13	21	40	26.8		13,549
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No									6			6		12	12	29	35	23.5		17
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.3		No							0	0	0	2	2	3	5	9	12	23	43	29.3		345
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	11	21	53	38.9		2,835	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No										6		3		6	6	22	56	40.6		32
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No												1	2	3	8	18	68	51.1		393
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																	100	66.7		6
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No													1		1	3	95	91.8		171

Total:							38.0	%	3.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.0	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+1.3*+0.1-1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville	+1.3*+0.1-1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	95	2		1	2	1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	49	22	8	7	5	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		0	0		0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	38	21	10	8	6	4	4	2					4		2								2
14		14	-	2	-	0	38	18	12	9	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	30	14	13	13	7	5	3	3	3	1	1		1	1	1	0	1	0			0	0				0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	16	12	9	7	6	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	23	15	12	9	6	6	5	4	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	15	14	12	7	4	7	6	5	7	3	1	3	2	3	2	1	3	1	1		1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	14	12	9	9	7	6	6	4	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
		10	-	3	-	3	14	14	14	29			14																	14
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	8	9	6	13	7	9	5	5	4	4	5	4	5	3	2	2	1	2	2	2	1			1	1		1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	20	10	10	10	10	10	10				10			10
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	6	6	6	5	7	5	6	6	4	4	3	6	6	3	4	2	3	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	0	1	1	1		1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3	9			9	9	9		9							9	9	9				18			9
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	2	5	4	4	4	4	5	5	4	5	4	5	5	3	3	4	3	2	3	4	3	1	3	1	2	1	2	2	1	1	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3				9	9					9	9		9		9	9				18		9										9
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	1	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	4	4	4	5	5	4	5	4	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	3										10		10			10					10	10			10		10	20	10
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	2	3	2	3	4	4	5	2	5	4	5	4	4	3	5	5	4	4	5	4	3	3
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4
		5	-	8	-	3														14				14		14	14	14		14			14
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2			0	0	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	3	3	2	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	5	6	4	6	6	6	7	5	4	6	7
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	8	8	7
		4	-	9	-	3															14	14		14			14								29		14
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	10	11
		4	-	10	-	2			1		1				1	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	3	5	6	4	4	7	8	7	7	9	5	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	8	8	9	12	13
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	6	7	9	10	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2											1	1				2	1	2	4	4		4	2	4	4	2	9	6	7	12	15	20
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1					0	0	0		0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	12	14	21
3		3	-	13	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	7	9	12	16	27
		2	-	12	-	2															6								12			6	6		18	6	24	24
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1													0	0			1	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	3	5	6	8	8	10	18	29
2		2	-	14	-	0									0			0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	5	6	8	11	18	39
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																3							3	3	3		6	3	3	9	25	41
1		1	-	15	-	0																						1	0	1	2	2	3	3	8	8	22	51
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																															33	67
0		0	-	16	-	0																							1		1					2	5	92

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3