Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances 2013

Plays Oakland, playoff odds up 0.5 to 38.3%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Indianapolis vs Oakland	+5.4*-0.6-5.4		+1.0*-0.4-1.0		-0.9*-0.3+0.9		+0.7-0.1-0.7
Houston vs San Diego	-0.4*+0.2+0.4
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+0.4*+1.4-0.4						+0.0+0.1-0.0
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	-0.4*+0.6+0.4						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*-0.9+0.3						-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Miami vs Indianapolis	-5.5*-0.3+5.5		-1.0*-0.3+1.0		+0.9-0.6-0.9		-0.7+0.0+0.7
Oakland vs Jacksonville	+0.3*+0.1-0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.3*+0.0+0.4				-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.3*-0.2+0.3
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.3*-1.2+0.2						-0.0*-0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.2*-0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Indianapolis finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		91.3	%	100																No		183	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	98.1	%	49.4		91	0			5	2	1	1			0						No		478	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	97.7		41.9		91					7	2										No		43
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.7		39.8		86	1	0		7	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				No		3,403
		13	-	1	-	2	In		No		50				50												No		4
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	94.7		33.2		81	3			7	4	3	1	1	1		0					No		395
13		13	-	3	-	0	91.8		27.3		74	5	0		9	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		15,744
		12	-	2	-	2	95.7		17.4		74	4			17				4								No		23
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	87.7		22.5		66	7	0	0	9	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	0		No		1,619
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.6		17.8		54	12	1	0	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	50,718
		11	-	3	-	2	89.7		14.1		59	9			12	10	3	3	1	3	1						No		78
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	80.9		13.5		44	17	2		11	8	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	No		4,705	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.6		10.5		30	21	4	0	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		119,336
		10	-	4	-	2	73.2		10.7		32	21	4		10	6	5	7	4	4	2	2	1	1		0	No		205
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	69.5		7.6		19	22	7	1	11	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		10,494
		9	-	4	-	3	50.0		No		38					13			13	13		13		13			No		8
10		10	-	6	-	0	61.9		5.7		11	19	11	2	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.1		214,462
		9	-	5	-	2	59.7		4.0		8	21	11	1	10	9	6	6	6	6	6	4	2	2	0	1	0.5		402
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	55.9		3.7		5	15	14	4	10	9	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0.2		17,042
		8	-	5	-	3	In		No		9	18	27	9	27	9											No		11
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.5		2.9		2	10	14	6	9	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	3	2	0.5		301,784
		8	-	6	-	2	49.5		1.8		2	10	13	5	10	9	7	7	8	8	5	5	5	3	2	1	0.3		606
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.0		1.7		1	5	12	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	0.6		21,652
		7	-	6	-	3	54.5		No				18	9	18	9		9		27	9						No		11
8		8	-	8	-	0	34.9		1.3		0	2	9	10	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	3	1.3		332,649
		7	-	7	-	2	34.4		1.0		1	2	7	11	6	8	6	8	9	7	9	6	8	6	6	2	0.9		689
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	28.3		0.6		0	1	5	11	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	1.8		21,231
		6	-	7	-	3	15.8		5.3				11	5			21			5	16		21	11	11		No		19
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.3		0.5		0	0	3	10	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	8	8	7	2.9		290,223
		6	-	8	-	2	23.1		0.2			1	3	11	4	6	7	5	7	7	9	9	9	9	9	7	2.8		597
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	18.5		0.2			0	1	9	3	5	5	6	7	8	9	9	10	10	9	9	3.8		16,018
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No								14		14	14	14		14	14	14		No		7
6		6	-	10	-	0	13.9		0.1		0	0	1	7	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.9		200,522
		5	-	9	-	2	9.9		No				1	5	1	2	5	6	7	9	9	10	12	13	10	9	4.5		404	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.8		0.1				0	5	2	3	4	4	6	7	8	10	11	12	14	15	7.8		9,621
		4	-	9	-	3	25.0		No				13			13			13			13	25	25			No		8
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.4		0.0			0	0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	20	10.9		106,931
		4	-	10	-	2	7.5		No					2	1	5	3	3	7	7	5	10	8	12	14	23	15.1		186
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	4.7		No				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	10	14	18	23	12.6		4,305	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.4		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	14	19	29	17.7		43,577
		3	-	11	-	2	1.7		No					2				2	7	5	3	10	16	9	22	24	12.1		58
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	2.1		No					1	1	1	1	2	2	4	4	7	9	12	21	36	22.5		1,329
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.3		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	12	20	41	27.4		13,273
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No								5	10			5		15	5	15	45	25.0		20
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	1.2		No					1	0	0	0	1	1	1	4	4	7	17	17	46	31.0		345
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.4		No					0		0	0	1	1	1	3	3	6	11	20	54	38.5		2,840	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	2.1		No					2					4	2	4			13	15	60	47.9		48
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No											2	1	2	4	7	20	65	49.7		364	*
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																33	67	66.7		3
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																2	98	96.9		159

Total:							38.3	%	3.2	%	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.0	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs Oakland	-1.3*+0.2+1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami vs Indianapolis	+1.3+0.0-1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	92	4	3			1						1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	50		50
15		15	-	1	-	0	49	20	12	5	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0						0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	42	28	14	7				2	2		5
14		14	-	2	-	0	40	18	11	8	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	33	17	11	10	8	5	3	2	2	2	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	17	11	9	7	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	17	17	17	9	4	22						9	4
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	23	15	11	8	8	5	4	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	11	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	14	21	9	10	12	9	4	4	4	3	1	4		1			1		3	1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	13	11	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	11	8	10	7	4	8	8	3	4	4	3	1	3	2	3	4	2	3	1	2	2	0	1	0		0	0	0	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3			25			13					13							13		13					13			13
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	6	5	5	6	4	4	6	5	3	4	5	3	2	3	3	4	4	3	2	3	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3			9	9			9	27		36						9
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	4	5	5	4	4	5	6	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	5	5	4	2	3	2	1	2	1	2	1	1	1	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3						9	18	9	9	9							9				9	27
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	1	3	2	2	4	4	3	2	4	3	2	4	4	3	3	5	4	4	4	3	5	3	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	3	5								11		5			5		5	5			5	11	16		5	16		5			5
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	0	1	0	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	4	5	5	5	3	3	3
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	3															14			14		14				14		29			14
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2		0	0		0	1	0	0	1	2	2	1	4	1	3	5	3	4	3	4	3	6	3	6	6	5	6	6	7	6	4	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	8	8
		4	-	9	-	3									13		13			13					13			13				13		25
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	10	11
		4	-	10	-	2					1				2	1	2	1	2	1	1	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	4	2	5	10	4	8	7	6	8	15
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	7	9	10	11	13
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	6	7	9	11	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2																	7	5	3	3		3	2	7	5	5	5	2	14	12	14	12
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1								0	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	6	7	10	11	15	22
3		3	-	13	-	0				0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	6	9	11	16	27
		2	-	12	-	2															5		10						5		10	5	5	10		15	10	25
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1						0						0			1	1	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	3	3	6	9	12	9	16	31
2		2	-	14	-	0										0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	6	8	12	17	39
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1													2					2	2	2	4					2		4	8	6	19	48
1		1	-	15	-	0																0			0		0	1	1	1	1	1	4	3	7	12	19	50
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																															33	67
0		0	-	16	-	0																														1	3	97

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3