Houston Texans Playoff Chances 2013

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 +0.3
+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs San Diego+5.5*+0.2-5.5
+1.0*-0.2-1.0
-1.0-0.6+1.0
+0.7*+0.1-0.7
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh-0.4*-0.3+0.4
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs Jacksonville+0.4*-0.0-0.4
Indianapolis vs Oakland-0.3*+0.2+0.3
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay-0.3*+0.7+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Houston vs Tennessee+5.7*+0.0-5.7
+0.9*-0.3-0.9
-0.9*-0.3+0.9
+0.7*+0.0-0.7
Miami vs Indianapolis+0.4*-0.7-0.4
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Oakland vs Jacksonville+0.4*+0.6-0.4
Buffalo vs Carolina-0.3*+0.4+0.3
Denver vs NY Giants-0.4*-0.0+0.2
San Diego vs Philadelphia-0.3*-0.8+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs Dallas-0.2*-0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inReg SeasonChance will finish regular season at seedCollege
TWW-L-TplayoffsChamp12345678910111213141516LevelCount
1616-0-0In94.6%991No166
15.515-0-1In71.48614No7
1515-1-098.8%56.8931411No412
14.514-1-197.854.39622No46
1414-2-097.038.5861073101000No3,073*
13.513-2-193.928.98108522010No329*
1313-3-092.127.47440953211000000No14,509
12-2-294.427.8781166No18
12.512-3-188.220.56670975211100000No1,538*
1212-4-084.217.755121010754321110000.0%47,249
11-3-279.017.346101111110101No81
11.511-4-180.413.64417201176432210000No4,639*
1111-5-074.610.531204011865432211000.0113,423
10-4-274.18.329194111084342210No228
10.510-5-168.47.920217111976543221100.09,866
9-4-342.9No2914291414No7
1010-6-061.95.8111911210987654332110.1207,721
9-5-267.35.982411112117775131110No388
9.59-6-156.14.05161339987665432210.216,928
8-5-342.9No141414291414No7
99-7-048.32.82101469887766544320.5295,329
8-6-249.92.72111467998765544210.5593
8.58-7-141.01.7151288888877654320.721,394
7-6-327.3No2718991899No11
88-8-035.11.3029107778877766531.2333,270
7-7-235.61.4039106878787876420.9703
7.57-8-128.60.7015115778888887641.621,506
6-7-323.1No8888381588No13
77-9-023.30.5003105667788898872.8296,209
6-8-221.40.303946767781078973.2588
6.56-9-117.50.3018445678999101094.016,630
5-8-320.0No10101020101030No10
66-10-013.70.2001734566789101112125.9207,456
5-9-212.2No1624575691191110146.5403
5.55-10-19.40.10523456789111214157.69,930*
55-11-07.40.004123456791113161910.6112,452
4-10-23.8No0111344995111419188.5213
4.54-11-14.6No2122345781113182413.34,520*
44-12-03.30.002112234681014192917.846,905
3-11-21.3No13371171412212210.576
3.53-12-11.8No100123357914203521.41,559
33-13-01.2No100112346813204127.114,271
2-12-2OutNo471515223725.927
2.52-13-10.8No1111335811244332.2370
22-14-00.5No000011124611205439.13,137*
1.51-14-1OutNo2446156958.348
11-15-0OutNo001256236250.2404
0.50-15-1OutNo100Yes3
00-16-0OutNo1129693.4167
Total:37.5%3.1%66666666666666663.1%1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
Houston vs San Diego-1.3-0.2+1.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Lottery seed
Houston vs Tennessee-1.3*+0.0+1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-0952211
15.515-0-1711414
1515-1-057141064211211100
14.514-1-15422774222
1414-2-03818118653321111100000000
13.513-2-12919121045424223101101
1313-3-0271611976443322111111000000000000
12-2-22822116666666
12.512-3-12015129665433322111110000000000
1212-4-018131087655433322211111110000000000
11-3-2171459154757441751111
11.511-4-1141110887554433332221111111000000
1111-5-0119887665544333222221111111000000
10-4-288898476673422131132220010
10.510-5-187776655544443332232121111100000
9-4-32914142914
1010-6-066666555544444333322222211111000
9-5-2656667855463342452312101111101
9.59-6-145555555555444433332222222111100
8-5-3142914141414
99-7-034444444444444444333333222221110
8-6-233455645646354245343331232111101
8.58-7-122334444444444444444433333222211
7-6-391899189999
88-8-012233333344444444444444433333221
7-7-212222344343343355553544343332121
7.57-8-111122233333344444444444444343322
6-7-3888815823158
77-9-001112222233333344444444444444443
6-8-200112212134343433453534644544443
6.56-9-100111112222333334444454555555554
5-8-3101010101010201010
66-10-000011111222223333344445555666666
5-9-2110110112332222335465355547676
5.55-10-100000111111122233334444556676888
55-11-0000000111111122223333445566788911
4-10-200000122122234535345771010118
4.54-11-10000000011111122233334456678101213
44-12-000000000001111112222333455678101318
3-11-2113135844484125111611
3.53-12-10000001000111112333345878111621
33-13-000000000000111111223344579111627
2-12-2444772271926
2.52-13-11010011221255377131732
22-14-000000000011111224368111839
1.51-14-1224102281058
11-15-00110022346121750
0.50-15-1100
00-16-012393
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333