Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances 2013

Plays at San Francisco, playoff odds down 0.8 to 36.3%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 -0.7
-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs Green Bay-5.4*-0.3+5.3
-0.9*-0.4+0.9
+1.0*-0.1-1.0
-0.7*-0.0+0.7
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay+0.3*+0.5-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Green Bay vs Washington+5.4*-0.4-5.4
+0.9*-0.5-0.9
-1.0*-0.4+1.0
+0.7*+0.0-0.7
Arizona vs Detroit+0.3*+0.2-0.3
Buffalo vs Carolina+0.3*-0.1-0.3
San Diego vs Philadelphia+0.3*-0.3-0.3
Denver vs NY Giants+0.3*+0.4-0.2
Kansas City vs Dallas+0.2*-0.9-0.2
+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Green Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inReg SeasonChance will finish regular season at seedCollege
TWW-L-TplayoffsChamp12345678910111213141516LevelCount
1616-0-0In93.2%9811No161
1515-1-099.7%44.793430No349
14.514-1-1In41.3964No46
1414-2-096.039.3841742100000No2,760
13-1-2In60.0100No5
13.513-2-195.334.88110932110No359
1313-3-092.226.97350953211000000No13,087
12-2-2In23.1698158No13
12.512-3-190.123.567809642111000000.1%1,339
1212-4-084.517.954121010753221110000.043,775
11-3-294.123.56071891111No68
11.511-4-181.412.8431620119543221100No4,156*
1111-5-074.010.729215011875432211000.0107,155
10-4-275.88.6331951267535212No198
10.510-5-168.48.019228111876543221100.19,353
9-4-350.0No252550No4
1010-6-061.66.0101911210987654332110.2200,221
9-5-262.64.212201049810566244210No377
9.59-6-155.03.551414410987755432210.216,294
8-5-355.6No11221111112211No9
99-7-047.82.9291469888766544310.5290,132
8-6-242.72.5271356889986844210.5571
8.58-7-140.71.7141198888877655320.721,212
7-6-338.5No1581581515158No13
88-8-034.51.3028107788887776531.3333,414
7-7-235.10.9019107786977857430.6687
7.57-8-127.30.7014105678888887641.621,922
6-7-316.7No1788252588No12
77-9-022.80.5003104567788899872.9301,204
6-8-222.90.3310564610779118962.7630*
6.56-9-117.20.2018356678999101093.817,266
5-8-311.1No11111111222211No9
66-10-013.50.100734566789101112125.8214,372
5-9-212.80.2072355889910912135.7405*
5.55-10-19.30.0005234557810111214147.310,366
4-9-314.3No141414142914No7
55-11-07.10.004123456791113161910.5119,469
4-10-27.7No3231672710101715189.2195
4.54-11-14.8No2122345781114172313.14,808*
44-12-03.20.02112234681014192917.650,260
3-11-22.7No11315931411193213.574
3.53-12-11.1No0001223581115193521.21,653*
33-13-01.1No100112346913214026.915,848
2-12-2OutNo5555166331.619
2.52-13-10.3No0011235616204631.4354
22-14-00.5No000001124611205440.03,497*
1.51-14-1OutNo11714195736.172
11-15-00.2No00001249196453.7456
0.50-15-1OutNo257562.58
00-16-0OutNo1129693.5168
Total:36.3%3.0%56666666666666663.2%1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
San Francisco vs Green Bay+1.3*+0.1-1.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Lottery seed
Green Bay vs Washington-1.3*+0.0+1.3
Baltimore vs Cleveland*-0.0+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-0935111
1515-1-04522127631111011
14.514-1-141202072442
1414-2-0391711863332111100000000000
13-1-2602020
13.513-2-13518115864321211100010
1313-3-0271612976543222111110000000000000
12-2-223152381588
12.512-3-1231610786544323211111000000000
1212-4-018131087655433222211111100000000000
11-3-22441612761241413111
11.511-4-11312989655543333221211110000000
1111-5-0119887665544333322221111111000000
10-4-2910986511373443332312322111
10.510-5-187777665554343332222221111000000
9-4-325252525
1010-6-066666555544444333322222211111000
9-5-2467366566664443223322132111110
9.59-6-144555555554544343332222221111100
8-5-3221122111122
99-7-034444444444444444333333222221110
8-6-224424453334545354443444223211111
8.58-7-122334444444444444443333333222111
7-6-3882388881588
88-8-012233333344444444444444333333221
7-7-212223443334544343344453324342211
7.57-8-111122233333334444444444444343322
6-7-388888825178
77-9-001112222233333344444444444444443
6-8-200022232223324333345345645545443
6.56-9-100111122222333333444445555555554
5-8-311111122112211
66-10-000011111122222333344445555666666
5-9-200101110232111323444435466556686
5.55-10-100000111111122223343444566667777
4-9-3142914141414
55-11-0000000111111122223333445566788911
4-10-2111211123224426245567878119
4.54-11-1000000001111122222334445677891113
44-12-000000000001111111222333455679101318
3-11-2113113144417118452614
3.53-12-1000000000111112223446779111521
33-13-000000000000011111223344579111627
2-12-255555212132
2.52-13-1000111113243568121931
22-14-000000000001112233558111840
1.51-14-111146613102236
11-15-00000000112257111454
0.50-15-13863
00-16-01111393
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333