Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances 2013

Lost to NY Giants 3-44, playoff odds down 18 to 19.9%

0-1-0 .000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Dallas 3 NY Giants 44	-6.0		-1.0		+1.0		-0.7
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.2*+0.3-0.2

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Kansas City vs Dallas	-3.7*-0.8+4.4		-0.3*-0.3+0.4		+1.7*-0.6-2.0		-0.5*-0.0+0.6
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.6*+0.6-0.4						+0.1*+0.1-0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.4*-0.1-0.4						+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.2*-0.1-0.2
Green Bay vs Washington	+0.2*+0.3-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15		15	-	0	-	0	In		95.4	%	99				1												No		153
14	.5	14	-	0	-	1	In		50.0		100																No		2
14		14	-	1	-	0	97.8	%	37.2		83	0			8	6	1	0	1								No		226
13	.5	13	-	1	-	1	95.7		4.3		65	9			22			4									No		23
13		13	-	2	-	0	88.5		21.6		66	4	0		12	7	5	2	2	1	1	0	0		0		No		1,891
		12	-	1	-	2	In		No		50					50											No		2
12	.5	12	-	2	-	1	86.4		22.8		60	5			12	9	3	3	4	0	1	0			0		No		206
12		12	-	3	-	0	80.0		13.7		47	10	1	0	13	9	6	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	9,781
		11	-	2	-	2	75.0		12.5		25	25			13	13	25										No		8
11	.5	11	-	3	-	1	76.8		11.4		39	13	2		14	10	6	5	4	3	3	1	1	0			No		1,006	*
11		11	-	4	-	0	68.0		7.8		25	17	4	0	13	10	8	7	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		35,081
		10	-	3	-	2	60.5		4.7		16	14	2	2	12	14	7	12	2	7		7		2	2		No		43
10	.5	10	-	4	-	1	61.7		5.7		16	18	5	0	12	11	8	7	6	4	4	3	3	2	1	0	0.1		3,449	*
10		10	-	5	-	0	54.7		4.2		8	15	9	2	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0.2		93,177
		9	-	4	-	2	60.4		1.4		12	14	9	1	13	11	13	6	6	6	4	1	1	1	2		No		139
9	.5	9	-	5	-	1	47.5		2.3		3	11	10	3	10	10	9	8	7	7	6	4	4	3	2	1	0.2		8,189
		8	-	4	-	3	83.3		No				50	33						17							No		6
9		9	-	6	-	0	40.4		1.9		1	7	10	5	9	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	0.5		185,601
		8	-	5	-	2	43.9		2.6		2	7	10	7	8	11	9	9	10	6	7	5	2	3	3	2	0.3		312
8	.5	8	-	6	-	1	32.3		1.0		0	3	8	6	8	8	9	8	9	8	7	8	6	5	4	2	0.8		14,823
		7	-	5	-	3	30.0		10.0		10			20			10	20	10	10		10			10		No		10
8		8	-	7	-	0	27.4		0.8		0	1	6	7	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	4	1.5		287,085
		7	-	6	-	2	26.1		0.2			1	5	7	8	5	6	10	9	12	8	8	7	6	5	3	1.1		528
7	.5	7	-	7	-	1	21.2		0.4		0	0	3	7	5	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	9	8	8	5	2.1		20,163
		6	-	6	-	3	37.5		No					13		25			13	13	13	13		13			No		8
7		7	-	8	-	0	16.9		0.3		0	0	2	6	4	5	6	7	7	8	9	9	10	10	10	8	3.6		344,494
		6	-	7	-	2	16.3		0.3				2	6	3	5	6	7	8	8	10	10	10	11	8	6	2.4		633	*
6	.5	6	-	8	-	1	12.0		0.1			0	1	5	3	4	5	6	7	8	8	9	11	12	12	10	4.6		21,096
		5	-	7	-	3	18.2		No						9	9			27	18			9		18	9	No		11
6		6	-	9	-	0	9.2		0.1			0	0	4	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	11	12	14	15	7.2		320,952
		5	-	8	-	2	6.4		No					3	1	2	4	5	7	7	8	11	12	12	14	13	5.3		582
5	.5	5	-	9	-	1	5.9		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	14	16	18	9.1		17,092
		4	-	8	-	3	10.0		No							10				10		30		40	10		No		10
5		5	-	10	-	0	4.5		0.0				0	2	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	8	11	14	18	23	12.8		231,448
		4	-	9	-	2	4.5		No					2	1	2	2	3	4	4	6	8	13	13	21	21	11.7		358
4	.5	4	-	10	-	1	2.5		No				0	1	1	1	1	2	3	5	6	7	10	15	19	28	16.2		10,219
		3	-	9	-	3	Out		No											20				20	20	40	20.0		5
4		4	-	11	-	0	1.8		0.0				0	1	0	1	1	2	3	3	5	7	9	14	20	34	20.9		126,322
		3	-	10	-	2	1.0		No					1			1	2	3	5	4	4	11	12	23	35	13.9		194
3	.5	3	-	11	-	1	0.8		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	5	9	14	21	40	25.3		4,369
3		3	-	12	-	0	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	22	46	31.5		50,722
		2	-	11	-	2	Out		No								2		2			9	7	16	25	39	26.8		56
2	.5	2	-	12	-	1	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	11	22	53	36.7		1,377	*
2		2	-	13	-	0	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	10	20	59	43.9		14,098
		1	-	12	-	2	Out		No													11			33	56	44.4		9
1	.5	1	-	13	-	1	Out		No										1	0	2	1	4	8	20	64	49.4		251
1		1	-	14	-	0	Out		No										0	0	0	2	3	6	18	71	56.5		2,287	*
0	.5	0	-	14	-	1	Out		No														5	10	10	76	61.9		21
0		0	-	15	-	0	Out		No															2	6	93	84.1		314

Total:							19.9	%	0.9	%	1	2	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	9	11	13	7.1	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dallas 3 NY Giants 44	+1.4

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Dallas	+1.2*+0.1-1.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15		15	-	0	-	0	95	2	1	1			1	1
14	.5	14	-	0	-	1	50		50
14		14	-	1	-	0	37	15	15	7	6	1	6	4	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
13	.5	13	-	1	-	1	4	9	4	17	4	9	26	9	13				4
13		13	-	2	-	0	22	13	12	10	7	7	4	5	3	3	2	3	2	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0				0
		12	-	1	-	2				50					50
12	.5	12	-	2	-	1	23	12	11	4	9	6	6	6	1	3	4	1	3	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	1						0
12		12	-	3	-	0	14	11	10	8	8	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	2	-	2	13				13	13		13		25	13						13
11	.5	11	-	3	-	1	11	10	8	7	7	7	6	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0			0
11		11	-	4	-	0	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	3	-	2	5	7	2	2	5		7	16	7	9		5	2	2	2	2	9	5		2		2	2				2			2
10	.5	10	-	4	-	1	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
10		10	-	5	-	0	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		9	-	4	-	2	1	4	8	4	4	9	4	8	7	5	3	6	8	3	3	2	4	4	3	3	1		1	1	1	1			1		1
9	.5	9	-	5	-	1	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	4	-	3				33	17	17											17		17
9		9	-	6	-	0	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1
		8	-	5	-	2	3	2	4	2	4	5	4	6	4	4	5	4	3	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	5	3	3	2	1	1	3	1	2	1	1	0
8	.5	8	-	6	-	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1
		7	-	5	-	3	10		10	10					10				10		10	10			10				10					10
8		8	-	7	-	0	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2
		7	-	6	-	2	0	1	1	2	3	2	1	4	4	3	3	4	3	4	3	6	5	5	5	6	4	2	6	4	5	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
7	.5	7	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	2
		6	-	6	-	3			13			13							13					13		13	13		13				13
7		7	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4
		6	-	7	-	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	3	3	5	3	6	4	5	4	4	5	7	7	6	4	4	2	2
6	.5	6	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5
		5	-	7	-	3			9									9				9		9	9	9		9			9		9			9	9
6		6	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7
		5	-	8	-	2				0	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	1	2	2	3	2	3	3	4	4	3	5	6	5	5	6	8	5	6	9	6	5
5	.5	5	-	9	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	9	9	9
		4	-	8	-	3													10								10				10	60				10
5		5	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	11	13
		4	-	9	-	2								1	0	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	3	4	3	3	3	3	4	4	6	6	8	9	13	10	12
4	.5	4	-	10	-	1			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	11	13	16
		3	-	9	-	3																						20						20		40		20
4		4	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	9	11	15	21
		3	-	10	-	2				1									1	1	2	1	1		2	3	3	1	2	5	4	4	6	8	10	16	20	14
3	.5	3	-	11	-	1				0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	9	12	17	25
3		3	-	12	-	0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	5	7	9	12	18	31
		2	-	11	-	2																		2	2				7	2	5	2	2	7	9	16	20	27
2	.5	2	-	12	-	1												0		0		0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	4	3	6	10	13	18	37
2		2	-	13	-	0					0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	11	19	44
		1	-	12	-	2																										11			22	11	11	44
1	.5	1	-	13	-	1																		0			0	0	1	2	1	1	2	5	6	13	18	49
1		1	-	14	-	0																		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	10	18	56
0	.5	0	-	14	-	1																											5	10		14	10	62
0		0	-	15	-	0																											1	0	2	2	11	84

Total:							1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7