Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances 2013

Lost to Chicago 17-19, playoff odds down 5.1 to 30.5%

0-1-0 .000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-5.3		-0.9		+1.0		-0.6
Denver 7 Baltimore 21	-0.5
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Miami vs Cleveland	+0.3*+0.3-0.3						+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	+0.3*+0.1-0.3
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.2*+0.7+0.2

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh	+5.8*+0.2-5.2		+0.7*-0.3-0.6		-1.2*-0.5+1.1		+0.7+0.1-0.6
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*-0.1+0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.2*+0.0+0.3
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.2*+0.2+0.2						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.2*-0.3+0.2						-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

14.5	-15						In		91.9	%	100																No		161	*
14		14	-	1	-	0	98.1	%	41.1		90	1			6	2	1	0	0	0							No		319
13	.5	13	-	1	-	1	In		40.5		86				11	3											No		37
13		13	-	2	-	0	94.5		32.0		79	3	0		8	4	3	1	1	0	0		0				No		2,384
		12	-	1	-	2	In		33.3		67				33												No		3	*
12	.5	12	-	2	-	1	94.7		24.4		73	5			10	6	3	1	0	1		0	0				No		303
12		12	-	3	-	0	88.9		21.8		61	11	1	0	11	6	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	No		12,122
		11	-	2	-	2	94.1		29.4		76	6	6		6				6								No		17
11	.5	11	-	3	-	1	85.2		16.6		48	17	1		12	7	5	3	2	2	2	0	0	0	0		No		1,207
11		11	-	4	-	0	79.7		13.1		36	20	4	0	11	8	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	42,306
		10	-	3	-	2	83.0		8.5		30	19	4		21	9	2	4	2	4	2			2			No		47
10	.5	10	-	4	-	1	72.7		9.0		23	22	7	1	11	9	8	6	4	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	No		4,026
		9	-	3	-	3	In		33.3		67		33														No		3
10		10	-	5	-	0	67.7		7.4		14	21	11	2	11	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.1		106,350
		9	-	4	-	2	64.6		5.7		10	23	10	1	13	8	8	10	5	5	2	2	2	2			No		175
9	.5	9	-	5	-	1	61.9		4.8		7	17	13	4	11	10	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	0.1		9,206
		8	-	4	-	3	80.0		20.0			20	40			20	20										No		5
9		9	-	6	-	0	54.0		3.7		3	11	15	6	10	9	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	0.2		204,220
		8	-	5	-	2	56.3		1.6		3	10	17	4	11	11	7	8	7	5	5	4	4	3	1	0	0.3		375
8	.5	8	-	6	-	1	47.6		2.3		1	6	13	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	1	0.3		15,909
		7	-	5	-	3	66.7		No				33		33					17	17						No		6
8		8	-	7	-	0	40.1		1.7		0	3	10	11	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	4	2	0.7		301,297
		7	-	6	-	2	36.2		1.7		0	4	7	9	8	7	10	10	8	7	7	9	4	4	3	2	1.3		544
7	.5	7	-	7	-	1	32.9		1.0		0	1	6	12	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	4	3	0.9		20,705
		6	-	6	-	3	11.1		No							11	11		22			33	11	11			No		9
7		7	-	8	-	0	27.2		0.6		0	0	4	11	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	1.7		346,136
		6	-	7	-	2	26.7		0.5			0	3	10	7	7	9	7	7	8	9	7	9	7	6	5	1.7		640	*
6	.5	6	-	8	-	1	20.9		0.3			0	1	9	5	5	7	7	8	8	9	9	9	8	8	6	2.4		20,955
		5	-	7	-	3	25.0		No					13		13		13	13		13	13	13		13		No		8
6		6	-	9	-	0	16.5		0.2			0	1	8	3	5	6	6	7	8	9	9	10	10	10	9	3.9		308,277
		5	-	8	-	2	11.0		No				1	6	2	3	7	5	8	8	8	10	11	10	14	8	3.2		537
5	.5	5	-	9	-	1	11.7		0.1				0	6	3	3	5	6	7	7	9	10	10	12	12	11	5.0		15,899
		4	-	8	-	3	14.3		No							14	29			14				29	14		No		7
5		5	-	10	-	0	8.9		0.0				0	4	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	11	12	14	15	7.8		213,452
		4	-	9	-	2	7.7		No					4	1	3	6	5	5	6	9	9	8	15	16	12	6.6		363
4	.5	4	-	10	-	1	5.8		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	14	16	20	10.0		9,123
		3	-	9	-	3	20.0		No							20			20			20	20		20		No		5
4		4	-	11	-	0	4.2		0.0				0	2	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	8	11	14	18	24	13.4		110,690
		3	-	10	-	2	3.3		No					1	1	1	1	2	3	7	7	7	14	15	19	21	9.9		151
3	.5	3	-	11	-	1	2.2		No					1	0	1	2	2	3	4	5	8	11	13	20	29	17.5		3,852	*
3		3	-	12	-	0	1.6		0.0					1	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	14	21	35	21.9		42,444
		2	-	11	-	2	4.2		No					2		2				4		6	19	15	15	38	22.9		48
2	.5	2	-	12	-	1	0.9		No					1	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	5	9	13	20	43	27.0		1,132	*
2		2	-	13	-	0	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	11	21	49	33.4		11,094
		1	-	12	-	2	Out		No															11	44	44	22.2		9
1	.5	1	-	13	-	1	Out		No								1			1	1	3	6	10	18	59	34.2		146
1		1	-	14	-	0	0.1		No					0			0	0	0	0	1	2	5	10	20	61	46.2		1,836
		0	-	13	-	2	Out		No															50		50	50.0		2
0	.5	0	-	14	-	1	Out		No																24	76	64.7		17
0		0	-	15	-	0	Out		No									0		0	1	1	1	1	8	87	81.3		273

Total:							30.5	%	1.9	%	3	4	5	7	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	3.9	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+1.4

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh	-1.4*-0.1+1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15		15	-	0	-	0	92	6	2			1
14	.5	14	-	0	-	1	100
14		14	-	1	-	0	41	19	12	8	7	3	3	2	1	2		1	1			1
13	.5	13	-	1	-	1	41	8	19	3	11	8	3	8
13		13	-	2	-	0	32	17	12	9	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
		12	-	1	-	2	33	33							33
12	.5	12	-	2	-	1	24	16	11	11	10	5	5	4	2	2	3	3	1	1	0	1					1
12		12	-	3	-	0	22	15	11	9	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	2	-	2	29	29	12	6			6	6				6					6
11	.5	11	-	3	-	1	17	13	11	9	8	7	6	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				0
11		11	-	4	-	0	13	11	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	3	-	2	9	9	6	15	9	11	4	4	4	9	4	2	2	2		2	2		2		2						2
10	.5	10	-	4	-	1	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	3	-	3	33		33			33
10		10	-	5	-	0	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	2	6	5	6	6	9	6	6	6	6	5	4	1	8	3	3	3	3	2	1		2	3	2	1	2		1	1
9	.5	9	-	5	-	1	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	4	-	3	20				40					20				20
9		9	-	6	-	0	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	2	2	5	5	7	3	5	5	5	5	7	4	7	4	2	3	3	4	3	4	4	3	1	1	2	2	1	1	1		1	1	0
8	.5	8	-	6	-	1	2	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0
		7	-	5	-	3					17	17			17					17					17	17
8		8	-	7	-	0	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1
		7	-	6	-	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	3	4	3	5	3	3	5	4	5	6	4	3	4	5	3	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	1
7	.5	7	-	7	-	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	1	1
		6	-	6	-	3								11							11	11	11						11	11	11		22
7		7	-	8	-	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	2	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	4	3	4	5	5	4	5	3	4	3	3	5	5	2	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	3	3	2
6	.5	6	-	8	-	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	2
		5	-	7	-	3		13										13					13		13		13			13	13						13
6		6	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	2		0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	2	2	3	4	5	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	4	7	5	7	6	5	3
5	.5	5	-	9	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5
		4	-	8	-	3												14		14	14							14	14						14	14
5		5	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	8	8
		4	-	9	-	2			0	1	0		1	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	2	5	3	3	4	5	4	6	4	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7
4	.5	4	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	7	7	8	9	10	10
		3	-	9	-	3										20							20			20							20			20
4		4	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	10	11	13
		3	-	10	-	2								1	1		1		1	1	2	1	2	1	3		5	4	5	5	4	8	8	6	11	15	7	10
3	.5	3	-	11	-	1				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	6	8	9	11	13	18
3		3	-	12	-	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	15	22
		2	-	11	-	2												2			2				2	2	2		4	4	2	4	6	6	13	17	10	23
2	.5	2	-	12	-	1					0						0		0	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	5	7	9	12	17	27
2		2	-	13	-	0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	8	12	18	33
		1	-	12	-	2																									11			11	22	11	22	22
1	.5	1	-	13	-	1														1						1	1	1	1	2	1	5	3	8	6	15	21	34
1		1	-	14	-	0														0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	4	6	7	11	18	46
0	.5	0	-	14	-	1																														18	18	65
0		0	-	15	-	0																		0	0			0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	3	9	81

Total:							2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4