Carolina Panthers Playoff Chances 2013

Plays at Seattle, playoff odds down 0.7 to 36.8%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 -0.3
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Seattle vs Carolina-5.4*-0.5+5.4
-0.9*-0.3+0.9
+1.0*-0.4-1.0
-0.7*+0.0+0.7
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay+0.6*-0.7-0.6
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Buffalo vs Carolina-5.2*-0.3+5.2
-0.9*-0.1+0.9
+1.0-0.6-1.0
-0.6*+0.0+0.6
Denver vs NY Giants+0.5*+0.4-0.3
Atlanta vs St. Louis-0.4*-0.3+0.4
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia+0.3*+0.1-0.3
Kansas City vs Dallas+0.2*-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inReg SeasonChance will finish regular season at seedCollege
TWW-L-TplayoffsChamp12345678910111213141516LevelCount
1616-0-0In92.8%991No167
15.515-0-1In60.0100No5
1515-1-099.7%53.6931510No358
14.514-1-1In41.38992No46
1414-2-096.639.7851832100000No2,971*
13.513-2-195.038.5831752110No322
1313-3-091.626.67350953211000000No13,735
12-2-287.518.881613No16
12.512-3-191.122.1687097321101000No1,401
1212-4-084.217.954131010753321110000.0%44,911
11-3-275.712.9476117411931No70
11.511-4-180.113.84217211865332110000.04,381*
1111-5-074.110.729215011875432211000.0108,758
10-4-278.58.430234157535422111No191
10.510-5-167.77.118228111876543221100.19,797
9-4-350.0No33173317No6
1010-6-061.96.0101912210987654332110.2202,868
9-5-258.55.29171021298756533210No405
9.59-6-154.93.84141449987765432210.216,267
8-5-333.3No3317171717No6
99-7-048.02.9291478887766544310.5293,528
8-6-248.02.9181579887965652210.6627
8.58-7-140.71.7041298888877654420.621,221
7-6-345.5No189183699No11
88-8-034.71.3028116778887776531.2333,906
7-7-232.70.918106789797776520.6683
7.57-8-127.50.6014115677888887641.721,557
6-7-325.0No19666196131313No16
77-9-023.00.5003104567788999872.8298,481
6-8-221.50.73114477987998972.1609
6.56-9-117.10.20183556788910101093.916,672
5-8-328.6No14141414141414No7
66-10-013.80.100734566789101112126.0211,787
5-9-213.70.2007334410798121013103.0439
5.55-10-19.20.00523356789111314158.110,123
4-9-314.3No141429141414No7
55-11-07.30.004123456791113161910.7117,037
4-10-27.1No3233458106131216177.1184
4.54-11-14.7No02122345791113172312.84,793*
44-12-03.30.002111234681014192917.749,189
3-11-26.3No411313156419292310.179
3.53-12-11.6No101112556914203622.41,475*
33-13-01.2No100112345913214026.515,418
2-12-2OutNo77729143628.614
2.52-13-10.9No10000235614194935.5332
22-14-00.1No000001123611215440.13,316*
1.51-14-1OutNo26615225042.654
11-15-00.2No001348196448.3416
0.50-15-1OutNo505025.04
00-16-0OutNo1139592.8166
Total:36.8%3.0%66676666666666663.2%1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
Seattle vs Carolina+1.3*-0.0-1.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Carolina+1.3+0.0-1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-09322111
15.515-0-1602020
1515-1-054171265321101
14.514-1-141179111524
1414-2-040181186433221111000000000
13.513-2-13916117742332220011000
1313-3-027171297543332211111000000000000
12-2-2192519136666
12.512-3-122161387754432121111100000000
1212-4-018131087655443222211111100000000000
11-3-213411116997164471131
11.511-4-11410988665444322222211110000000000
1111-5-01110887665544433322221111111000000
10-4-28121167756555242112122122111
10.510-5-178777655554443333222221111100000
9-4-333173317
1010-6-066666655544443333322222211111000
9-5-25535458767342342133222112311000
9.59-6-145555555554444434333332222211100
8-5-3171717171717
99-7-034444444444444444333333222221110
8-6-233445634464443433423442332111001
8.58-7-123333444444444444434333332222211
7-6-399999999189
88-8-012233333344444444444444333333221
7-7-211224232443444454445444444233211
7.57-8-111122223333334444444444444433322
6-7-36666666666666666
77-9-001112222233333344444444444444443
6-8-211021122322223555335544455345452
6.56-9-100111112222333333444444555555554
5-8-3141414291414
66-10-000011111122223333344444555566666
5-9-20001212311213215533465445586673
5.55-10-100000011112222223333445556677878
4-9-3141429141414
55-11-0000000111111222223334445566778911
4-10-211112113213233584355779797
4.54-11-10000000011111212222344556778101113
44-12-000000000001111111222333445678111318
3-11-213143143419998151610
3.53-12-1000000111111022232344579111522
33-13-000000000000111111223334679121626
2-12-277777142129
2.52-13-1101111131333588101736
22-14-000000000100111223458121940
1.51-14-122266274151343
11-15-000111112356112048
0.50-15-1255025
00-16-0111493
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333