Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances 2013

Plays at New Orleans, playoff odds down 0.3 to 37.3%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-0.3						-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
New Orleans vs Atlanta	-5.8-1.7+5.8		-0.9*-0.1+0.9		+0.9-0.6-0.9		-0.7-0.1+0.7
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.6*-0.5-0.6						+0.1-0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Carolina	+0.4*+1.4-0.4						+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta vs St. Louis	+5.4*-0.1-5.4		+1.0*-0.2-1.0		-1.0*-0.4+1.0		+0.7+0.0-0.7
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.6*+0.9-0.6						+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.3*-0.6-0.2						+0.0*-0.1-0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.2*-0.6-0.2
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.2*+0.3-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		92.2	%	100																No		166	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	98.3	%	48.0		93	0			4	1	1	0	0								No		421	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		28.9		89				11												No		45
14		14	-	2	-	0	95.6		38.7		85	1			6	3	2	1	1	0	0		0		0		No		3,005
		13	-	1	-	2	60.0		20.0		20				40		20			20							No		5
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	94.9		34.7		77	4			8	6	1	1	1	1	1	0	0				No		311	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	92.1		26.7		73	5	0		9	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		14,677
		12	-	2	-	2	94.7		15.8		58	5			16	16			5								No		19
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	90.6		22.9		68	7	0		10	6	3	2	2	1	0	0	0	0		0	No		1,408	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.5		17.9		53	14	1	0	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	47,501
		11	-	3	-	2	85.1		17.9		63	7			6	9	3	7	1		1	1					No		67
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	80.3		14.0		42	17	2	0	11	8	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0		No		4,644	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.4		10.7		28	22	5	0	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		112,568
		10	-	4	-	2	76.2		7.0		28	22	7	1	9	9	7	4	2	5	2	3	1	1			No		172
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	68.7		7.7		18	23	8	1	10	9	7	5	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.0		10,051
		9	-	4	-	3	In		14.3		14	29	14		14	29											No		7
10		10	-	6	-	0	61.8		5.9		10	19	12	2	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.1		207,054
		9	-	5	-	2	64.7		6.8		13	20	10	4	10	8	9	8	5	3	4	3	2	2	1	0	0.3		385
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	54.8		3.8		4	14	14	4	9	9	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0.2		16,589
		8	-	5	-	3	62.5		No				25			38	25		13								No		8
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.1		2.9		2	9	14	7	9	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	1	0.5		295,913
		8	-	6	-	2	46.5		1.9		2	8	15	7	9	6	9	8	8	8	7	3	5	2	2	1	0.3		621
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.2		1.7		0	4	12	9	7	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	3	2	0.7		21,366
		7	-	6	-	3	20.0		No				10	10				10	20	20		10		10	10		No		10
8		8	-	8	-	0	34.7		1.2		0	2	8	11	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	3	1.3		333,524
		7	-	7	-	2	35.1		0.7			2	8	12	5	8	8	6	10	9	6	7	7	5	3	4	1.1		703
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	28.1		0.8		0	1	5	11	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	4	1.8		21,254
		6	-	7	-	3	23.1		No					8	8	8	8	15	8	23	8	8				8	No		13
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.0		0.5		0	0	3	10	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	8	7	2.9		296,128
		6	-	8	-	2	22.6		0.4			0	4	10	4	5	7	6	8	7	8	8	7	12	8	6	2.2		557	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	17.2		0.2			0	1	9	3	4	6	6	7	8	9	9	10	10	10	8	3.7		16,595
		5	-	8	-	3	12.5		No				13					13		13		25	13	13		13	No		8
6		6	-	10	-	0	13.8		0.1			0	0	7	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.8		207,524
		5	-	9	-	2	11.2		No					5	3	4	4	7	5	7	7	13	11	11	14	10	5.5		420	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.3		0.1			0	0	5	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	10	12	14	15	7.7		9,943	*
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.4		0.0				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	19	10.8		113,159
		4	-	10	-	2	4.2		No					2		3	2	5	5	7	11	9	8	15	13	20	9.9		192
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	4.3		No				0	2	1	2	2	3	4	6	6	9	11	13	17	23	13.5		4,639	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.3		0.0				0	2	0	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	14	19	29	17.6		47,098
		3	-	11	-	2	2.7		No					1		1		3	5	3	12	12	12	16	20	15	9.3		75
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	2.2		No					1	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	15	20	36	21.7		1,509
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.2		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	13	21	40	26.9		14,482
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No								12					24	6		18	41	17.6		17
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.6		No					0		0		1	1	1	3	4	7	14	22	46	30.1		335
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	11	22	52	37.7		3,017	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No												3		3	5	25	63	48.3		60
1		1	-	15	-	0	0.3		No							0	0		1	0	1	2	4	9	18	64	53.3		394
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																	100	Yes		4
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No														1		4	96	92.3		169

Total:							37.3	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
New Orleans vs Atlanta	+1.3+0.2-1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Atlanta vs St. Louis	-1.3*+0.1+1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	93	4			1		1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	33		33			33
15		15	-	1	-	0	48	23	9	7	5	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	29	36	9	4	11		4	2			4
14		14	-	2	-	0	39	18	11	8	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		0
		13	-	1	-	2	20			20		20					20	20
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	35	17	10	9	6	4	5	2	2	4	2	2	1	1	0		0	1	0	0	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	16	12	9	7	6	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	16	5	5	11	32		11		5		11						5
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	23	14	12	9	8	6	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				0		0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	8	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	18	10	7	9	7	4	4	3	6	6	3	4		4	4	1		3	1	1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	14	11	9	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	10	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	7	10	12	5	9	8	4	5	8	2	3	3	3	2	4	1	1	2	1	1	3	1	1	1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	8	8	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	14				29	14		14	14		14
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	7	4	5	8	7	6	5	5	4	5	6	5	3	3	2	4	3	2	2	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1		0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		13						13			38		13					25
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	3	5	4	4	3	4	6	4	5	4	4	5	4	3	5	5	4	4	3	3	4	3	2	2	1	1	2	1	1	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3						20									10		10	10		20				10		10					10
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	2	2	2	2	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	3	5	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	4	3	3	2	2	2	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	3								8			8			15			15	15		8		8		8		8					8
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	0	1	1	3	1	2	1	3	2	3	2	3	3	3	5	3	3	4	5	4	3	3	5	4	4	5	4	4	6	3	5	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	3										13				13							13		13	13	13	13					13
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2			0	1		1	1	0	2	1	1	3	3	2	1	4	2	3	4	5	5	5	4	5	5	5	6	6	8	4	7	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	8	8	8
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	10	11
		4	-	10	-	2		1		1	1						1	2	1	3	3	1	1	1	4	5	4	5	7	4	4	7	3	8	7	9	9	10
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	7	8	10	11	13
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	10	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2													1	1	3	3		3	3	3	3	4	4	7	4	8	8	11	11	3	13	9
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1				0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	6	5	8	10	11	16	22
3		3	-	13	-	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	4	4	6	7	9	11	16	27
		2	-	12	-	2															12						6	12			6		12	6		18	12	18
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1										0			0			0		1	0	1	1	1	1	3	4	4	4	8	9	13	19	30
2		2	-	14	-	0							0			0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	5	6	7	11	19	38
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																					2				2	5		2	8	17	17	48
1		1	-	15	-	0												0					1		1			0		2	1	3	3	6	8	9	15	53
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																																100
0		0	-	16	-	0																									1			1	1	3	3	92

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3