Arizona Cardinals Playoff Chances 2013

Plays at St. Louis, playoff odds down 0.2 to 37.3%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
St. Louis vs Arizona	-5.7*-0.5+5.7		-1.0*-0.4+1.0		+0.9*-0.1-0.9		-0.7*+0.0+0.7
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.4*-1.1+0.4						-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Seattle vs Carolina	-0.4*-0.5+0.4						-0.0*-0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.2*+0.1-0.2

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Arizona vs Detroit	+5.4*-1.0-5.4		+1.0-0.7-0.9		-1.0*-0.5+1.0		+0.7-0.0-0.7
Atlanta vs St. Louis	+0.4*-0.2-0.4						+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.3*+0.3-0.3
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.3*-0.6-0.3
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.3*+0.7-0.2				+0.1*-0.3-0.0		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.2*+0.3-0.2						+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Arizona finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		95.5	%	100																No		157
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		20.0		80				20												No		5
15		15	-	1	-	0	98.6	%	50.1		93	0			3	2	0	0	0	0							No		419
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	95.2		49.2		89				6		3		2								No		63
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.1		38.5		85	1	0		7	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0				No		3,205	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	93.8		30.2		82	1			8	2	2	2	1	1	0						No		371
13		13	-	3	-	0	92.0		27.1		73	5	0		9	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		14,362
		12	-	2	-	2	In		33.3		76	14			10												No		21
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	89.3		19.3		65	8	0		10	6	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0		0	No		1,497	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.3		17.6		52	14	1	0	10	7	5	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	47,468
		11	-	3	-	2	84.0		21.3		56	11			12	5	11	3	3								No		75
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	80.4		13.2		42	18	2	0	11	8	6	4	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	No		4,450
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.2		10.8		28	22	5	0	11	8	7	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		113,106
		10	-	4	-	2	75.2		6.4		29	20	4	1	12	7	7	6	2	4	2		0	1	0		No		202
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	68.5		7.2		18	23	8	1	10	9	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0	0.0		9,950
		9	-	4	-	3	57.1		14.3		14	43					14	29									No		7
10		10	-	6	-	0	61.7		5.8		10	19	12	2	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.1		207,042
		9	-	5	-	2	61.5		5.2		10	22	10	1	10	8	7	7	7	5	4	4	2	1	2	1	No		384
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	54.9		3.9		4	14	14	4	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0.2		16,862
		8	-	5	-	3	50.0		No		8	8	8	8		17		17	17	8			8				No		12
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.1		2.9		2	9	14	7	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	1	0.5		295,993
		8	-	6	-	2	49.4		2.5		2	9	12	8	8	11	9	9	8	6	4	4	4	3	2	1	0.5		603
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.5		1.8		1	4	12	9	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	0.5		21,471
		7	-	6	-	3	40.0		No				20	10		10				40				10	10		No		10
8		8	-	8	-	0	34.7		1.3		0	2	8	11	6	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	3	1.3		332,765
		7	-	7	-	2	32.0		1.5			2	7	10	6	8	8	9	8	9	8	8	6	5	4	3	1.7		651
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	27.8		0.6		0	1	4	11	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	1.7		21,411
		6	-	7	-	3	30.0		No				10			20			10	10	30		10	10			No		10
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.0		0.5		0	0	3	10	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	8	7	2.8		295,988
		6	-	8	-	2	21.4		0.3			0	4	10	4	4	7	5	10	5	9	8	11	11	7	6	2.1		574
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	17.4		0.2			0	1	9	3	4	6	7	7	8	9	9	10	10	10	8	3.6		16,651
		5	-	8	-	3	20.0		No						10	10					10	20	10	30	10		No		10
6		6	-	10	-	0	13.7		0.1			0	0	7	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.8		207,220
		5	-	9	-	2	11.8		No				0	6	2	3	4	8	7	7	7	11	11	10	11	12	7.2		417
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.1		0.0				0	5	2	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	11	13	14	15	7.9		10,103
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No											50	33	17					No		6
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.2		0.0				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	19	10.8		113,090
		4	-	10	-	2	6.3		No					2	2	2	2	2	4	6	4	11	13	13	19	18	5.9		205
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	4.7		0.0					2	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	14	17	22	12.5		4,653	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.2		0.0					2	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	14	19	29	17.5		47,308
		3	-	11	-	2	2.5		No					1	1			1	5	5	6	9	14	19	19	21	14.8		81
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	2.0		No					1	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	6	10	14	20	34	21.3		1,459
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.2		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	13	21	40	27.0		14,419
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No													7	7		33	53	26.7		15
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.3		No							0	1	1	1	3	2	4	7	12	21	48	32.0		334
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	10	21	53	38.3		3,072	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No													2	6	13	19	60	41.5		53
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No									0	0	0	0	2	4	9	17	67	51.6		419
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																	100	Yes		1
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No										1				1	2	2	95	91.8		182

Total:							37.3	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
St. Louis vs Arizona	+1.3*+0.0-1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Arizona vs Detroit	-1.3-0.0+1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	96	4	1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	20	20	40			20
15		15	-	1	-	0	50	17	11	5	4	5	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0		0	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	49	17	11	10	3		5	2	2						2
14		14	-	2	-	0	39	18	11	10	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	30	20	11	8	6	7	4	2	1	2	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	1	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	16	12	9	6	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		12	-	2	-	2	33	19	19	5		5	10		10
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	19	15	11	10	6	7	5	5	4	2	3	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0		0		0		0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	21	13	12	4	13	8	1	8	1	4		1	4	4	1		1	1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	13	12	10	8	7	7	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	6	9	9	7	10	6	7	5	4	5	2	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	0	2	2	0		0	1			0		0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	7	8	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	14		14			29									29	14
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	5	6	5	5	7	6	7	4	4	4	5	5	4	3	2	3	3	2	4	3	3	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1		1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3					8			17	8	8	8	8		8		17			8				8
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	4	3	4	4	5	4	4	6	6	3	3	4	5	3	5	3	3	4	4	2	3	2	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3		10		10	10	10											10	10		20							10	10
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	2	1	2	2	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	5	5	3	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	3	2	1	2
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2
		6	-	7	-	3				10								10			10	10			10		10		10	10		10			10
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	0	1	1	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	4	3	5	5	3	2	3	3	2	4	5	4	4	5	5	6	4	5	4	4	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	3									10	10												10		20	10		10	10	20
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2			0	1	0	1			2	1	3	2	2	3	3	4	3	3	4	4	5	2	4	6	6	3	6	6	6	5	6	7
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	8	8
		4	-	9	-	3																		33		17	33				17
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	7	8	8	9	11
		4	-	10	-	2				0			0		1	2		1	0	2	0	2	3	1	1	1	6	5	4	4	3	7	5	9	10	14	9	6
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	6	7	7	8	9	11	12
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	6	7	9	11	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2												2		1			1	1		2	6	4	1	6	9	5	4	17	9	7	9	15
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1						0	0	0		0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	6	8	9	11	14	21
3		3	-	13	-	0		0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	7	9	12	16	27
		2	-	12	-	2																					7					7		13	20	20	7	27
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1											0					1	2	1	1	1	1	2	3	1	4	3	2	6	9	14	17	32
2		2	-	14	-	0								0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	11	19	38
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																									4		4	6	8	9	28	42
1		1	-	15	-	0																	0		0		0		0	1	1	1	4	5	6	8	20	52
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																																100
0		0	-	16	-	0																		1										1	2	1	4	92

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3