Toronto FC Playoff Chances 2016

Tied Red Bulls 3-3, average seed down 0.03 to 1.2
47 points   13-8-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC 3 Red Bulls 3 -9.7
-0.0
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2 +0.9
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Toronto FC vs Union+10.6-10.3-15.7
+0.1-0.1-0.2
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas+5.0+2.1-9.9
Whitecaps vs Rapids+3.3+1.1-4.7
Red Bulls vs Impact-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC vs DC United+10.1-10.6-15.9
+0.1-0.1-0.2
Toronto FC vs Orlando+10.0-10.6-15.9
+0.1-0.1-0.2
FC Dallas vs Galaxy-6.4+6.0+3.9
Rapids vs Timbers-2.8+2.3+4.1
Galaxy vs Sounders-1.3+1.4+2.2
Red Bulls vs Union-0.2+0.3+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Dynamo vs NYCFC+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Toronto FC finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
58-62In63.8%100No5,411,341*
573-1-1In25.09640No2,952,502
563-0-2In11.19460No1,121,556
2-3-0In6.29460No985,402
552-2-1In2.284160No2,350,612
542-1-2In0.468292No1,761,306
1-4-0In0.162344No266,039
531-3-1InNo534260No829,601
2-0-3In0.060364No420,874
521-2-2InNo3353140No916,833
0-5-0InNo265222No28,549
511-1-3InNo1752301No434,029
0-4-1InNo1248381No109,079
500-3-2InNo6414760No158,717
1-0-4InNo8424370No74,839
490-2-3InNo12456181No112,079
480-1-4InNo08444350No38,583
470-0-5InNo022457171No7,419
Total:In24.7%82153000No17,979,360

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs