Portland Timbers Playoff Chances 2016

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.3 to 73.5%

41 points 11-8-11

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Average seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2	+1.3				+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dynamo vs Timbers	-10.8+1.3+20.0				-0.4+0.0+0.8
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC	+0.6+1.5-3.0				+0.0+0.1-0.1
Whitecaps vs Rapids	-2.2+1.0+1.8				-0.1+0.0+0.0
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas	-0.8+0.1+1.2				-0.1+0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Average seed
Rapids vs Timbers	-9.1+2.3+20.3		No*No+0.0		-0.3+0.0+0.8
Galaxy vs Sounders	+2.9-0.8-9.4		No+0.0*+0.0		+0.1-0.0-0.2
Sounders vs Fire	-4.5+4.0+7.0				-0.1+0.1+0.2
Revolution vs Sporting KC	+3.7+0.5-5.7				+0.1+0.0-0.2
Impact vs Earthquakes	+1.9+0.2-4.9				+0.1+0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake	-1.9+1.5+2.1
Dynamo vs NYCFC	-0.3+0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Timbers finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP	W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon	Count

53	4	-	0	-	0	In		0.0	%	0	20	48	30	2						No	116,129
51	3	-	1	-	0	In		No			2	22	61	16	0					No	460,492
50	3	-	0	-	1	100.0	%	No			0	7	57	34	1	0				No	758,927
49	2	-	2	-	0	99.9		No			0	2	43	50	4	0				No	686,400
48	2	-	1	-	1	99.7		No			0	0	27	63	10	0	0			No	2,231,663
47	2	-	0	-	2	98.2		No				0	11	64	23	2	0			No	1,795,845
	1	-	3	-	0	97.4		No					7	61	29	3	0			No	442,660
46	1	-	2	-	1	91.8		No					3	46	43	8	0			No	2,116,819
45	1	-	1	-	2	80.9		No					1	30	50	18	1	0		No	3,343,158
	0	-	4	-	0	78.9		No					0	27	52	20	1			No	103,122
44	1	-	0	-	3	58.9		No					0	13	46	36	5	0	0	No	1,731,871
	0	-	3	-	1	55.8		No						9	46	38	6	0		No	645,350
43	0	-	2	-	2	31.0		No						3	28	49	18	1	0	No	1,492,424
42	0	-	1	-	3	12.9		No						0	12	46	36	6	0	No	1,498,889
41	0	-	0	-	4	2.7		No						0	3	25	48	22	2	No	555,611

Total:						73.5	%	0.0	%	0	0	1	11	32	29	18	7	1	0	No	17,979,360

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2	-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dynamo vs Timbers	+0.7+0.0-1.5
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas	+0.2-0.1-0.2
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC	-0.1-0.1+0.3
Whitecaps vs Rapids	+0.1-0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rapids vs Timbers	+0.6-0.0-1.6
Revolution vs Sporting KC	-0.2-0.1+0.4
Galaxy vs Sounders	-0.1+0.0+0.4
Sounders vs Fire	+0.2-0.2-0.3
Impact vs Earthquakes	-0.1-0.0+0.2
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake	-0.0-0.1+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

53	4	-	0	-	0	0	0	14	7	46	2	30		2
51	3	-	1	-	0			0	1	16	5	61	0	16		0
50	3	-	0	-	1			0	0	4	3	56	1	34	0	1		0
49	2	-	2	-	0			0	0	1	2	40	3	50	0	4		0
48	2	-	1	-	1				0	0	0	21	5	62	1	10	0	0	0
47	2	-	0	-	2					0	0	7	4	61	3	23	0	2	0
	1	-	3	-	0							4	3	58	4	29	0	3	0
46	1	-	2	-	1							1	2	40	6	43	0	8	0
45	1	-	1	-	2							0	0	21	9	49	1	18	1	0
	0	-	4	-	0							0	0	16	11	50	2	20	1
44	1	-	0	-	3							0	0	6	7	43	4	36	5	0	0
	0	-	3	-	1									4	6	42	5	38	6	0	0
43	0	-	2	-	2									0	2	21	8	48	19	2	0	0
42	0	-	1	-	3									0	0	6	7	41	37	9	1	0	0
41	0	-	0	-	4										0	1	2	18	42	29	8	1	0	0

Total:						0	0	0	0	1	0	9	2	29	4	27	2	17	7	2	0	0	0	0