Sporting Kansas City Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Tied Galaxy 2-2, playoff odds down 3 to 65.7%

40 points 11-7-12

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Average seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2	-3.0		No		-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC	-19.9-1.3+20.9				-0.6-0.1+0.7
Dynamo vs Timbers	+3.4+1.0-4.1				+0.1+0.1-0.2
Whitecaps vs Rapids	-1.8+0.7+1.2				-0.1+0.0+0.0
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas	-1.1*-0.0+1.1				-0.1+0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Average seed
Revolution vs Sporting KC	-15.1-2.8+17.3				-0.5-0.1+0.6
Galaxy vs Sounders	+4.8+1.7-6.2				+0.1+0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Fire	-6.2+1.8+4.8				-0.1+0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Timbers	+3.7+0.8-4.3				+0.1+0.0-0.2
Impact vs Earthquakes	+3.3+1.0-4.1				+0.1+0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake	-3.1+0.9+2.5
Dynamo vs NYCFC	-0.3+0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Sporting KC finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Supporters	Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP	W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon		Count

52	4	-	0	-	0	In		No		8	42	47	3	0					No		100,610
50	3	-	1	-	0	100.0	%	No		0	12	64	22	2	0				No		302,537
49	3	-	0	-	1	99.9		No		0	4	48	42	6	0				No		397,189
48	2	-	2	-	0	99.3		No		0	1	34	50	14	1				No		345,946
47	2	-	1	-	1	96.0		No			0	13	51	33	4	0			No		908,425
46	2	-	0	-	2	86.5		No				3	37	46	13	1	0		No		596,952
	1	-	3	-	0	90.0		No				5	39	45	10	0			No		175,443
45	1	-	2	-	1	73.4		No				1	22	51	25	2	0		No		690,147
44	1	-	1	-	2	45.7		No				0	7	39	42	12	0	0	No		906,526
	0	-	4	-	0	49.5		No					6	43	43	7	0		No		33,087
43	1	-	0	-	3	20.9		No					2	19	45	31	2	0	No		397,954
	0	-	3	-	1	27.6		No					2	25	48	23	2	0	No		174,955
42	0	-	2	-	2	9.2		No					0	9	39	45	7	0	No		345,391
41	0	-	1	-	3	1.3		No					0	1	18	56	23	2	No		302,939
40	0	-	0	-	4	0.0		No						0	6	50	39	5	0.0	%	100,619

Total:						65.7	%	No		0	2	12	24	28	20	12	3	0	0.0	%	5,778,720

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2	+0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC	+1.2+0.2-1.3
Dynamo vs Timbers	-0.2-0.1+0.3
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas	+0.2-0.0-0.2
Whitecaps vs Rapids	+0.1-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Lottery seed
Revolution vs Sporting KC	+1.0+0.2-1.2
Rapids vs Timbers	-0.2-0.1+0.3
Sounders vs Fire	+0.2-0.1-0.2
Galaxy vs Sounders	-0.2-0.1+0.2
Impact vs Earthquakes	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake	-0.0-0.1+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

52	4	-	0	-	0			6	2	41	1	47	0	3		0
50	3	-	1	-	0			0	0	9	3	63	1	22	0	2		0
49	3	-	0	-	1			0	0	2	2	46	2	41	0	6		0
48	2	-	2	-	0				0	0	1	29	6	49	0	14	0	1
47	2	-	1	-	1					0	0	8	5	48	3	33	0	4	0
46	2	-	0	-	2							1	2	32	5	46	0	13	1	0
	1	-	3	-	0							2	3	34	6	45	0	10	0
45	1	-	2	-	1							0	1	14	8	49	2	25	2	0
44	1	-	1	-	2							0	0	2	4	33	6	42	12	0	0
	0	-	4	-	0									2	4	38	6	43	8	0	0
43	1	-	0	-	3									0	1	12	8	43	32	4	0	0
	0	-	3	-	1									0	2	15	10	45	24	3	0	0
42	0	-	2	-	2									0	0	3	6	30	44	14	2	0	0
41	0	-	1	-	3										0	0	1	9	37	36	14	2	0	0
40	0	-	0	-	4											0	0	1	14	36	34	13	2	0	0

Total:								0	0	1	0	10	2	21	3	25	3	19	10	4	1	0	0	0	0