New York Red Bulls Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Tied Toronto FC 3-3, playoff odds up 0.01 to 99.99%
45 points   12-9-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC 3 Red Bulls 3 -1.1
-0.1
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Red Bulls vs ImpactIn+0.0-0.0
+1.2-0.6-0.7
+0.5-0.1-0.5
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas+0.4+0.2-0.6
Whitecaps vs Rapids+0.2+0.1-0.2
Toronto FC vs Union-0.1+0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Fire-0.2+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Red Bulls vs Union+1.2-0.6-0.7
+0.6-0.1-0.5
Toronto FC vs DC United-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Impact vs Earthquakes-0.1+0.0+0.0
Toronto FC vs Orlando-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Galaxy-0.5+0.4+0.2
Galaxy vs Sounders-0.2+0.0+0.2
Rapids vs Timbers-0.2+0.0+0.2
Dynamo vs NYCFC+0.1+0.0-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Bulls finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
574-0-0In30.9%89110No100,160
553-1-0In3.469301No303,065
543-0-1In1.054423No399,359
532-2-0InNo34589No344,771
522-1-1InNo2660140No908,503
512-0-2InNo1356301No597,531
1-3-0InNo753400No174,995
501-2-1InNo4464640No689,213
491-1-2InNo12853171No906,428
0-4-0InNo020661300No33,452
481-0-3100.0%No094144600No397,662
0-3-1InNo08503750No174,949
470-2-2100.0No327541600No345,002
460-1-399.9No07504030No303,182
450-0-499.4No027591310No100,448
Total:100.0%0.8%173628145000No5,778,720
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC 3 Red Bulls 3 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Red Bulls vs Impact-1.1+0.2+0.9
NYCFC vs Fire+0.3-0.1-0.3
Toronto FC vs Union+0.1-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Red Bulls vs Union-1.2+0.2+1.0
Dynamo vs NYCFC-0.3-0.1+0.3
Toronto FC vs DC United+0.2-0.1-0.2
Toronto FC vs Orlando+0.2-0.1-0.2
Impact vs Earthquakes+0.1-0.1-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
574-0-031581010
553-1-0366151510
543-0-1154142831
532-2-03485053
522-1-1264566800
512-0-21315572310
1-3-0715283200
501-2-140463422200
491-1-2102815161110
0-4-00020164410000
481-0-300904173742000
0-3-1080504343200
470-2-2327252510000
460-1-3070507322100
450-0-4002745557100
Total:1163333252121300000