Real Salt Lake Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 95.3%
44 points   12-8-10

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2 +0.2
Toronto FC 3 Red Bulls 3 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas+4.1+0.1-4.2
+0.9-0.5No
+0.6-0.1-0.5
Dynamo vs Timbers+1.0+0.3-1.3
+0.1+0.0-0.2
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC+0.2+0.4-0.5
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Rapids-0.2+0.1+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Union-0.1+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake-4.9+0.9+4.2
-0.5-0.4+0.8
-0.5-0.1+0.6
Sounders vs Fire-1.9+0.5+1.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs Sounders+1.4+0.5-1.8
-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Revolution vs Sporting KC+1.1+0.2-1.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Rapids vs Timbers+1.0+0.3-1.3
-0.2+0.0+0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Impact vs Earthquakes+0.7+0.3-0.9
FC Dallas vs Galaxy-0.3+0.2+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Orlando-0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto FC vs DC United-0.1+0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well Real Salt Lake finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
564-0-0In24.4%3249180No100,075
543-1-0In1.53355012No303,365
533-0-1In0.211953280No396,794
522-2-0InNo843481No345,588
512-1-1InNo2276650No907,186
502-0-2100.0%No013691610No596,549
1-3-0100.0No114721300No174,837
491-2-199.9No06652630No690,777
481-1-299.1No0143431310No909,050
0-4-099.7No1514070No33,218
471-0-394.4No019453060No398,068
0-3-197.2No25472530No174,545
460-2-286.3No935421310No345,977
450-1-360.8No115443450No302,627
440-0-428.3No0325492210No100,064
Total:95.3%0.5%15164320114100No5,778,720
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas-1.2+0.3+1.0
Dynamo vs Timbers-0.2-0.1+0.3
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC-0.1-0.1+0.2
Whitecaps vs Rapids-0.1-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake+1.0+0.2-1.2
Revolution vs Sporting KC-0.2-0.1+0.2
FC Dallas vs Galaxy-0.1-0.0+0.2
Rapids vs Timbers-0.1-0.1+0.2
Sounders vs Fire+0.1-0.0-0.1
Galaxy vs Sounders+0.1-0.1-0.0
Impact vs Earthquakes-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
564-0-02484901800
543-1-01232349012
533-0-100163521280
522-2-0534124801
512-1-11123466050
502-0-2009468116010
1-3-0009570213000
491-2-1003360526030
481-1-2001321142113010
0-4-0013318382700
471-0-30011942330060
0-3-1121343425030
460-2-2272784211310
450-1-301874133450
440-0-40012214492210
Total:10411423841911004100