Colorado Rapids Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.007 to 99.97%
47 points   12-11-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2 +0.7
+0.1
Toronto FC 3 Red Bulls 3 +0.8
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Whitecaps vs Rapids-9.7-4.0+12.7
-0.3-0.1+0.4
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas+6.7+1.6-7.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Union-1.9+0.7+1.4
NYCFC vs Fire-0.2*+0.1+0.1
Red Bulls vs Impact-0.1*+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Rapids vs Timbers+12.7-4.0-9.7
+0.4-0.0-0.4
Galaxy vs Sounders-1.7+0.6+1.3
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake+0.1+0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs NYCFC+0.1+0.1-0.2
FC Dallas vs Galaxy-7.3+2.7+5.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Toronto FC vs Orlando-2.0+0.7+1.4
Toronto FC vs DC United-2.0+0.7+1.4
Red Bulls vs Union-0.2+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Rapids finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
656-0-0InYes100No13,907
635-1-0In98.3%982No59,719
625-0-1In92.4937No78,709
614-2-0In85.68614No113,002
604-1-1In77.78020No298,106
594-0-2In58.86337No195,571
3-3-0In58.86337No114,540
583-2-1In44.850500No452,481
573-1-2In26.334651No595,363
2-4-0In23.530664No65,593
562-3-1In10.9167680No344,946
3-0-3In10.9167680No260,669
552-2-2In3.6778150No679,287
1-5-0In2.3468270No20,050
542-1-3In0.5163332No598,006
1-4-1In0.3155412No130,704
531-3-2InNo454970No344,075
2-0-4InNo434890No195,495
0-6-0InNo36568No2,614
521-2-3InNo30551500No452,981
0-5-1InNo1965160No19,930
511-1-4InNo12493450No298,062
0-4-2InNo9543430No65,533
500-3-3100.0%No437461210No114,357
1-0-5100.0No328462210No78,114
490-2-499.9No117463240No113,422
480-1-599.0No032555171No59,776
470-0-694.0No4504160No13,708
Total:100.0%19.5%22472172000No5,778,720
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Whitecaps vs Rapids+0.7+0.1-0.8
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas-0.1-0.1+0.1
Dynamo vs Timbers-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Rapids vs Timbers-0.8+0.1+0.7
Galaxy vs Sounders+0.3-0.1-0.2
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake-0.1-0.1+0.1
FC Dallas vs Galaxy+0.0-0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
656-0-0100
635-1-0982
625-0-19217
614-2-086114
604-1-178220
594-0-259437
3-3-059437
583-2-1455500
573-1-226764010
2-4-02476604
562-3-1115751800
3-0-3115751800
552-2-2437441500
1-5-0226442700
542-1-3015493302
1-4-1014784102
531-3-23312471700
2-0-4321147190
0-6-02785428
521-2-3151550615000
0-5-1995871600
511-1-438371234050
0-4-237401334030
500-3-314201744212010
1-0-503161244222010
490-2-40151239632040
480-1-50031595221701
470-0-62244640060
Total:19343519270200000