Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Colorado Rapids Playoff Chances 2016

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.001 to 99.996%
47 points   12-11-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2 +0.6
+0.0
Toronto FC 3 Red Bulls 3 +2.6
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Whitecaps vs Rapids-10.9-3.8+15.6
-0.3-0.1+0.4
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas+5.2+0.7-8.8
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Union-2.7+2.5+4.2
Red Bulls vs Impact-0.1+0.1+0.2
NYCFC vs Fire-0.0*+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Rapids vs TimbersIn+0.0-0.0
+9.5-7.9-13.8
+0.3-0.2-0.4
Galaxy vs Sounders-0.9+1.0+1.4
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake+0.0+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Galaxy-5.8+4.1+4.9
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Toronto FC vs Orlando-2.6+2.6+4.4
Toronto FC vs DC United-2.6+2.6+4.3
Red Bulls vs Union-0.1+0.1+0.2
Dynamo vs NYCFC+0.1*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Rapids finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
656-0-0InYes100No82,248
635-1-0In98.7%991No341,356
625-0-1In91.1946No415,221
614-2-0In84.38713No593,222
604-1-1In71.48119No1,412,986
594-0-2In49.46238No823,024
3-3-0In49.36238No540,430
583-2-1In33.448520No1,895,952
573-1-2In14.729683No2,158,115
2-4-0In12.325687No272,630
562-3-1In4.71274140No1,247,649
3-0-3In4.81274140No793,873
552-2-2In1.0471240No2,083,095
1-5-0In0.5257400No72,560
542-1-3In0.1152452No1,495,715
1-4-1In0.1043533No405,053
531-3-2InNo335980No877,887
2-0-4InNo325990No388,284
0-6-0InNo23689No7,771
521-2-3InNo20651500No925,303
0-5-1InNo1173160No51,576
511-1-4InNo7553440No470,342
0-4-2InNo5593420No137,737
500-3-3100.0%No24148800No189,131
1-0-5100.0No232481810No92,275
490-2-4100.0No021512520No141,142
480-1-599.5No043153110No54,041
470-0-695.6No4573540No10,742
Total:100.0%22.7%29452041000No17,979,360
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Whitecaps vs Rapids+0.6+0.1-0.8
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas-0.1-0.0+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Rapids vs Timbers-0.5+0.4+0.9
Galaxy vs Sounders+0.1-0.2-0.2
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake-0.1-0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Galaxy+0.1-0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs Orlando+0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs DC United+0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
656-0-0100
635-1-0991
625-0-19136
614-2-084313
604-1-1711019
594-0-2491238
3-3-0491238
583-2-13314520
573-1-2151566230
2-4-0121266270
562-3-1577231400
3-0-3577131400
552-2-21360112400
1-5-0124893900
542-1-30135174412
1-4-10029145223
531-3-21816554800
2-0-4171555490
0-6-013116359
521-2-3614511415000
0-5-1385815160
511-1-416342134040
0-4-215362333020
500-3-30217244528000
1-0-502141846217010
490-2-40041744725020
480-1-500421105121100
470-0-62252535040
Total:23740618240100000