Los Angeles Galaxy Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Tied Sporting KC 2-2, playoff odds up 0.08 to 99.98%

48 points 11-15-4

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Average seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2	+0.1		-2.9		-0.1
Toronto FC 3 Red Bulls 3			+0.7
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas			+2.4+1.3-3.4		-0.1+0.1+0.0
Whitecaps vs Rapids			+1.7+0.6-2.2		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Union			-1.4+0.4+1.1
Red Bulls vs Impact			-0.2+0.1+0.1
NYCFC vs Fire			-0.2+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Average seed
Galaxy vs Sounders	In+0.0-0.0		+7.7-3.1-5.3		+0.4-0.1-0.4
FC Dallas vs Galaxy	-0.0+0.0In		-7.7-3.4+10.2		-0.4-0.1+0.5
Rapids vs Timbers			-2.2+0.6+1.7		-0.1+0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake			+0.1*+0.0-0.1		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Orlando			-1.4+0.4+1.1
Toronto FC vs DC United			-1.4+0.4+1.1
Dynamo vs NYCFC			+0.1+0.1-0.2
Red Bulls vs Union			-0.2+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Galaxy finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP	W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon	Count

60	4	-	0	-	0	In		87.6	%	90	10									No	99,761
58	3	-	1	-	0	In		60.5		67	30	3								No	302,072
57	3	-	0	-	1	In		31.2		40	47	13								No	398,365
56	2	-	2	-	0	In		16.4		24	50	26	0							No	345,152
55	2	-	1	-	1	In		3.9		7	45	47	1							No	908,697
54	2	-	0	-	2	In		0.5		2	32	62	4							No	597,344
	1	-	3	-	0	In		0.6		2	31	63	4							No	175,004
53	1	-	2	-	1	In		No			17	71	12	0						No	690,407
52	1	-	1	-	2	In		No			10	70	20	0	0					No	907,389
	0	-	4	-	0	In		No			10	71	19	0						No	33,558
51	1	-	0	-	3	In		No			4	56	37	3	0					No	398,278
	0	-	3	-	1	In		No			3	57	37	3	0					No	175,352
50	0	-	2	-	2	100.0	%	No			1	38	50	10	1	0				No	344,569
49	0	-	1	-	3	99.9		No			0	22	55	21	2	0				No	303,112
48	0	-	0	-	4	99.1		No			0	7	43	38	11	1				No	99,660

Total:						100.0	%	8.5	%	11	23	47	16	3	0	0				No	5,778,720

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 2	+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Whitecaps vs Rapids	-0.2-0.1+0.2
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas	+0.1-0.1-0.0
Dynamo vs Timbers	-0.0-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Lottery seed
FC Dallas vs Galaxy	+0.9+0.2-1.0
Galaxy vs Sounders	-0.9+0.2+0.7
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake	-0.2-0.1+0.2
Rapids vs Timbers	+0.2-0.1-0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

60	4	-	0	-	0	88	3	10
58	3	-	1	-	0	60	6	30		3
57	3	-	0	-	1	31	9	46	0	13	0
56	2	-	2	-	0	16	7	50	0	26	0	0
55	2	-	1	-	1	4	4	43	2	47	0	1
54	2	-	0	-	2	1	1	27	5	61	1	4
	1	-	3	-	0	1	1	26	5	63	1	4
53	1	-	2	-	1			13	5	69	2	12	0	0
52	1	-	1	-	2			5	5	63	7	20	0	0		0
	0	-	4	-	0			5	5	64	7	19	0	0
51	1	-	0	-	3			1	3	42	14	37	0	3		0
	0	-	3	-	1			1	2	43	14	37	0	3		0
50	0	-	2	-	2			0	1	21	17	48	2	10	0	1		0
49	0	-	1	-	3			0	0	6	15	47	7	21	0	2	0	0
48	0	-	0	-	4				0	1	6	27	16	37	2	11	0	1

Total:						8	2	21	3	42	5	15	1	3	0	0	0	0