SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Being true to yourself,
80’s style

Chicago Fire Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.01 to 2.7%

27 points 6-9-13

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
NYCFC vs Fire	-2.1-1.3+3.1		+13.0+4.2-16.2		-0.3-0.1+0.4
DC United vs Orlando	-0.2+0.5-0.2		*+0.1+0.3-0.3
Red Bulls vs Impact	+0.4*+0.0-0.4
Toronto FC vs Union	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs Timbers			+5.8-0.8-5.1
Whitecaps vs Rapids			+0.6*-0.1-0.6
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC			+0.3*+0.0-0.3

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Crew vs Fire	-2.2-1.3+3.1		+19.1+2.6-21.1		-0.4-0.1+0.5
Sounders vs Fire	-2.1-1.3+3.1		+13.0+4.3-16.3		-0.3-0.1+0.4
Toronto FC vs DC United	+0.6+0.2-0.8		-0.8+0.1+0.7		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Orlando	+0.6+0.2-0.8		-0.7*+0.1+0.6		+0.1+0.0-0.1
DC United vs Crew	-0.7+0.2+0.6		-3.9-0.6+4.4		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Revolution vs Sporting KC	-0.7+0.2+0.6		+0.2*+0.1-0.3		-0.1+0.0+0.1
Crew vs Revolution	+0.5+0.2-0.6		+5.0-0.8-4.4		-0.1+0.0+0.0
Impact vs Earthquakes	-0.4*+0.0+0.3		-0.3*+0.0+0.3
Red Bulls vs Union	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs NYCFC			+5.7-0.8-5.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake			+0.3*+0.0-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Fire finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon		Count

45		6	-	0	-	0	98.1	%	No				1	21	51	25	2	0			No		13,815
43		5	-	1	-	0	77.0		No					2	23	52	21	2	0		No		59,207
42		5	-	0	-	1	50.7		No					0	8	42	39	9	1		No		78,031
41		4	-	2	-	0	26.1		No						1	25	49	23	2	0	No		113,270
40		4	-	1	-	1	8.1		No						0	8	38	42	12	0	0.0	%	298,158
39		4	-	0	-	2	1.4		No						0	1	17	48	31	2	0.2		195,271
		3	-	3	-	0	1.4		No						0	1	17	49	30	1	0.1		115,230
38		3	-	2	-	1	0.2		No							0	6	37	49	8	1.7		453,194
37		3	-	1	-	2	0.0		No							0	1	17	58	25	8.5		596,232
		2	-	4	-	0	0.0		No							0	0	17	63	19	7.3		65,351
36		2	-	3	-	1	Out		No								0	6	51	43	23.2		343,808
		3	-	0	-	3	Out		No								0	5	46	49	23.4		262,174
35		2	-	2	-	2	Out		No									1	33	66	45.1		679,382
		1	-	5	-	0	Out		No									2	43	55	39.6		20,304
34		2	-	1	-	3	Out		No									0	16	84	65.9		596,107
		1	-	4	-	1	Out		No									0	21	78	63.3		130,873
33		1	-	3	-	2	Out		No										8	92	81.4		344,591
		2	-	0	-	4	Out		No										6	94	81.6		196,086
		0	-	6	-	0	Out		No										14	86	79.5		2,469
32		1	-	2	-	3	Out		No										2	98	91.6		452,517
		0	-	5	-	1	Out		No										4	96	91.3		19,966
31		1	-	1	-	4	Out		No										0	100	96.3		298,142
		0	-	4	-	2	Out		No										1	99	96.7		65,400
27	-30						Out		No											100	99.4		379,142	*

Total:							2.7	%	No				0	0	1	2	5	11	25	56	44.9	%	5,778,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
NYCFC vs Fire	+0.6+0.3-0.8
Dynamo vs Timbers	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Rapids	+0.1-0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Lottery seed
Crew vs Fire	+0.7+0.2-0.9
Sounders vs Fire	+0.6+0.3-0.8
Dynamo vs NYCFC	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Orlando	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs DC United	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Revolution vs Sporting KC	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Crew vs Revolution	+0.1-0.0-0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

45		6	-	0	-	0						1	0	21	7	43	15	10	2	0
43		5	-	1	-	0								2	0	23	4	49	10	10	3	0	0
42		5	-	0	-	1								0		8	1	41	10	21	14	3	0	0
41		4	-	2	-	0										1	0	25	3	18	31	18	5	0	0
40		4	-	1	-	1										0		8	1	7	27	34	18	4	0	0
39		4	-	0	-	2										0		1	0	2	12	31	34	16	3	0
		3	-	3	-	0										0		1	0	1	10	30	35	19	4	0
38		3	-	2	-	1												0	0	0	2	13	33	36	15	2
37		3	-	1	-	2												0		0	0	3	16	39	33	9
		2	-	4	-	0												0			0	2	16	41	34	7
36		2	-	3	-	1															0	0	4	26	46	23
		3	-	0	-	3															0	0	5	27	44	23
35		2	-	2	-	2																0	1	12	43	45
		1	-	5	-	0																0	1	14	46	40
34		2	-	1	-	3																	0	4	31	66
		1	-	4	-	1																	0	4	32	63
33		1	-	3	-	2																		1	18	81
		2	-	0	-	4																		1	18	82
		0	-	6	-	0																		1	20	80
32		1	-	2	-	3																		0	8	92
		0	-	5	-	1																		0	8	91
31		1	-	1	-	4																		0	4	96
		0	-	4	-	2																		0	3	97
30		0	-	3	-	3																			1	99
		1	-	0	-	5																			1	99
29		0	-	2	-	4																			0	100
27	-28																									100

Total:												0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	3	5	8	13	22	45